Focus this week: Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) , Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) , Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) , Jilin Carbon Valley
Core view of this week: the cost of raw materials has increased recently, the profitability of relevant mining enterprises has improved, and the ability and willingness of capital expenditure have been enhanced. It is suggested to pay attention to the equipment serving upstream enterprises, such as coal machinery, oil service, mining machinery, etc.
Lay a solid foundation for intellectualization. Coal mine intellectualization is the core technical support for the high-quality development of coal industry. Artificial intelligence, industrial Internet of things, cloud computing, big data, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , intelligent equipment, etc. are deeply integrated with modern coal development and utilization to form an intelligent system with comprehensive perception, real-time interconnection, analysis and decision-making, autonomous learning, dynamic prediction and collaborative control, so as to realize coal mine development, mining (stripping) The intelligent operation of transportation, ventilation, washing, safety guarantee and operation management is of great significance to improve the level of coal mine safety production and ensure the stable supply of coal. From the perspective of historical development, China has experienced the evolution of coal mining power, mechanization, automation and informatization in the steam age, 1950s, 21st century and around 2010. At present, China is in the stage of upgrading from informatization to intelligence. According to the current situation of China's intelligent coal mining technology and key technologies with breakthroughs, it is expected that the primary intelligent coal mining operation will be realized by 2025, and the intermediate intelligent coal mining with semi self-help control will be realized by 2035, basically stepping into the unmanned operation stage of intelligent coal mining face. It can be said that mechanization is the basis of realizing intellectualization, which is inseparable from intellectualization. According to the statistics of China Coal Industry Association, the degree of coal mining mechanization of China's large coal enterprises has increased from 32.34% in 1978 to 98.9% in 2020. At present, China's large coal enterprises have basically realized coal mining mechanization, which has laid a solid foundation for intelligent mining.
China has built 687 intelligent mining faces, and intellectualization has entered the fast lane of development. According to China Coal News, by the end of 2021, there were 687 intelligent mining faces in China, an increase of 80% year-on-year.
Among them, there are 431 intelligent coal mining faces, accounting for 63%, and 256 intelligent heading faces, accounting for 37%. According to the three-year action plan for special rectification of coal mine safety, in 2022, we should strive to reach more than 1000 intelligent mining faces, the production capacity of intelligent mines will reach 1 billion tons to 1.5 billion tons, and build a number of intelligent mines with less than 100 people.
Intelligent permeability measurement of coal mine: coal mining technology is at the forefront, and tunneling is the weak link. In view of the limited statistical data on the intelligent permeability of coal mines at present, we have calculated the current intelligent level of coal mines in China through two dimensions: production capacity and working face. The results show that 1) calculated by production capacity, the permeability of intelligent mines will reach 18.9-28.3% by 2022, and 2) calculated by the number of working faces, the permeability of intelligent mining working faces will be 6.5% by 2021, Among them, the permeability of intelligent coal mining face is 12.3%, and that of intelligent heading face is 3.6%. It is estimated that by 2022, the permeability of intelligent mining face will reach 9.8%. On the whole, China's coal mine intellectualization level is still low. In addition, compared with the intellectualization of fully mechanized mining, the automation degree of tunneling equipment is low, and the development of intellectualization lags behind, which has become a weak link in the intelligent construction of coal mines.
Calculation of coal mine intelligent market space from 2022 to 2025: according to the report data of Ernst & Young's smart enabled coal industry new trillion market, the cost of intelligent transformation and upgrading of single mine of existing production-oriented mines is about 149 million yuan to 263 million yuan. Considering that the new capacity of coal mines in the next few years is small and will tend to zero in the long term, the reconstruction cost of new mines is ignored here. It is assumed that all the intelligent markets come from existing production mines. Under the assumption that the intelligent penetration rate of coal mines will be 15% in 2021 and 50% in 2025, we predict that the market scale of intelligent transformation of coal mines in 20222025 will be 75.3 billion yuan, 70.3 billion yuan, 65.3 billion yuan and 60.2 billion yuan respectively, with a total corresponding market scale of 27.1 billion yuan.
Suggestions for attention: Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) , Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) , Sany international, Shanghai Chuangli Group Co.Ltd(603012)
Risk tip: policy risk, fluctuation risk of downstream industries, and the risk of intelligent promotion is less than expected
