Review of market and sector trends: last week, the media sector index fell 0.37%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.93% and the gem index fell 3.75%. Top three gainers in the sector: Hengxin Shambala Culture Co.Ltd(300081) (+ 23.09%), Shunya International Martech (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300612) (+ 13.75%), Col Digital Publishing Group Co.Ltd(300364) (+ 13.19%); The top three declines in the sector: Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) (- 7.58%), Merit Interactive Co.Ltd(300766) (- 6.67%), Zhejiang Daily Digital Culture Group Co.Ltd(600633) (- 5.44%). Last week, the NASDAQ China technology index fell 8.62% and the Hang Seng China enterprise index fell 3.81%.
One week view: last week, the overall adjustment of the media Internet sector, the weekly decline of the yuan universe sector was 4.88%. The two sessions held on Friday released positive signals of the layout of the yuan universe in many places, and some yuan universe targets rebounded. After continuous adjustment since January, we believe that the valuation of yuancosmos sector has been adjusted back to the relatively low area, and pay attention to companies with clear A-share related businesses and certain performance support, such as [ Three’S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) (continuous endogenous high growth in 21-23 years), yao ji (sufficient existing edition numbers), blue standard, vision, Zhewen Interactive Group Co.Ltd(600986) , Fengshang, etc.]. Pay attention to the progress of the epidemic prevention and control after the two sessions, such as the combination of the epidemic prevention and control and the recovery of policies after the two sessions.
In terms of the Internet, we believe that the impact of the implementation of meituan’s rescue rules on the overall revenue is falling by less than 1%, and the impact on the overall operating profit is falling by 11% – 15%. The early decline of share price has been reflected. The company actively undertakes social responsibility, the implementation of merchant rescue and social security, and the pressure of policy supervision may be alleviated. According to the pop-up window and app recommended download rules released by the Ministry of industry and information technology, geopolitical and inflation expectations suppress US stocks and China concept stocks. Meanwhile, Internet Co has entered the period of performance disclosure, Kwai shares [Ali, B station] reported insipid, and the relative performance growth in the stock market is outstanding in February.
Key points: 1) relatively high Kwai raceway, short video [fast]; Chinese video [bilibilibili] (21q4 revenue yoy + 51%, including advertising yoy + 120%); Scientific and technological innovation [Xiaomi and Baidu (21q4 revenue yoy + 9.3%, adjusted net profit attributable to parent company yoy-40.54%)]; Long video [mango], etc; Online recruitment [boss direct employment], marginal improvement of real estate [shell], etc.
2) XR, virtual human and other pioneer meta universe application sectors, [ Three’S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) (21-year revenue yoy + 27.2%; net profit attributable to parent yoy + 39.4%; continuous endogenous high growth in 21-23 years), yao ji (sufficient existing version), blue standard (American blue standard investment plans to invest no more than 35 million US dollars in a16z’s blockchain seed fund), vision, Zhewen Interactive Group Co.Ltd(600986) (elected as the executive vice chairman unit of Yuan universe Industry Committee)], It is suggested to pay attention to Fengshang (hosting the Winter Olympic Music Carnival, the opening ceremony of the Asian Games, etc.)]
3) in the game sector, focus on the progress of version number recovery in the short term. The relevant person of the State Press and Publication Administration said that it is still receiving the version number application of the game company normally. Focus on the head [Tencent and Netease (21q4 revenue yoy + 23.3%, adjusted net profit attributable to parent yoy + 313.04%)], China [Panax notoginseng (estimated net profit of 2.8-2.85 billion yuan in 21 years, yoy + 1.41% – 3.23%), perfect, G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co.Ltd(002602) (signed a framework cooperation agreement with Huawei to accelerate the construction of green data center), giant, Fuchun, yao ji, Baotong, Caesar, Huali, Xinghui and Kunlun, Hong Kong stock [Xinxin (the company expects taptap to achieve a revenue of 700 million yuan in 2021), celadon (it is estimated that the adjusted net profit in 21 years will be 415440 million yuan, yoy + 150% – 165.1%), China mobile game, IgG, chizicheng technology], VR technology [Silk Road, Hengxin, Jiachuang], etc.
4) film section, pay attention to the post epidemic repair opportunities. Focus on animation film leader [light], cinema and content compound leader [Wanda], Internet platform [cat’s eye], etc.
5) generation Z and community, maintaining high growth and high stickiness. Keep, a sports technology company, submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong stock exchange, focusing on [Bili], trendy play [bubble Mart] and [chuangmeng, aofei], etc; Online reading and IP operation [reading], online Q & a community [Zhihu], online music [Netease cloud], etc.
6) Kwai Chai and the industrial chain, focusing on the electronic business platform [Jingdong (announced the holdings of dada group to 52%), spelled a lot, Ali (22 quarter three quarter revenue yoy+10%, adjusted to net profit yoy-26.1%)] and live platform [jitter (Tiktok Tiktok 21 year GMV highest 6 billion yuan), fast hand (Taobao and Jingdong will not be able to distribute goods and services links in the tiktok)] Industrial chain [ Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) , yao ji, gravity], marketing technology [focus, blue label, vision], etc., byte benefit [ Three’S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) , Zhewen Interactive Group Co.Ltd(600986) ], etc; Community retail [meituan, daily Youxian, dingdong], etc; Wechat ecological e-commerce SaaS [youzan, Weimeng].
Risk warning: epidemic impact, economic and political environment risk, stricter supervision, goodwill impairment risk
