This week, the Shanghai index fell 0.11%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 2.93% and the gem index fell 3.75%. How to get to the aftermarket of a shares? See what the agency says:
① Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the market is expected to gradually strengthen and grow in a better style
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) pointed out that the government work report put forward a growth target of about 5.5%, which means that the steady growth policy will continue to be promoted, and the effect has been shown. The report takes into account structural adjustment and ensuring people’s livelihood. Scientific and technological innovation is the key to structural adjustment, and supporting the elderly and children is the focus of ensuring people’s livelihood. The market is expected to gradually become stronger with better growth style, such as photovoltaic wind power in low-carbon economy and cloud computing data center in digital economy.
② Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the policy force is more clear and the external impact is becoming clearer
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the “three bottoms” of the A-share market have been confirmed in turn, and the resonance of value and growth will rise after the external impact is clear. On the one hand, from the perspective of China’s economy and policies, it is expected that the overall economic data in the first two months will be stable and the effect of steady growth will initially appear. On the other hand, from the perspective of external shocks, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected the supply prospects and price expectations of a series of industrial products, accelerated the rise of commodity prices, restricted the means of overseas central banks to control inflation and further pushed up inflation expectations. However, the clarity of the final trend of the Russian Ukrainian incident and the rapid weakening of global demand may reverse the current trend of commodity prices, The Russian Ukrainian conflict is expected to usher in preliminary results in March.
In terms of investment opportunities, the recent market liquidity is relatively stable and the pressure is significantly weaker than that before and after the Spring Festival. It is suggested to stick to the main line of stable growth, actively increase positions and continue the layout around the “two low levels”: (1) for varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low, focus on the allocation opportunities of midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems after commodity prices peak, such as cars and parts Photovoltaic wind power equipment, airlines and hotels whose fundamentals are expected to remain low; (2) For the varieties with relatively low valuation, it is recommended to pay attention to high-quality developers, building materials and household enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, communication operators with significantly improved cash flow, smart grids and energy storage in the field of new infrastructure, data centers and cloud infrastructure benefiting from “East data and West computing”, and fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials. In the short term, relevant cyclical industries, such as oil and gas equipment, aluminum and copper, can also be appropriately traded from the perspective of hedging inflation expectation risk.
③ Bohai Securities: the market in March was cautiously optimistic and focused on three aspects
Bohai Securities pointed out that in the A-share market, the force of the steady growth policy will not only bring wide credit, but also help the recovery of enterprise vitality. Under the basic good expectation, the liquidity of A-Shares is also facing a gentle process. While being optimistic about the market, we should be more cautious. At present, external risks such as international conflicts and the Fed’s interest rate hike have not been completely eliminated, and these external uncertainties may still affect the development process of the market.
Industry configuration, the tone of the “steady growth” policy has not changed at this stage. We can pay attention to (1) the subdivided fields that meet the goal of “double carbon” under the “calculation from the east to the west” project; (2) The capital expenditure of operators will gradually enter the decline stage. 5g operators whose base station project has entered the payback period and whose profitability is expected to improve can be concerned; (3) As the cleanest of all energy sources, hydrogen energy is being strongly supported by policies. Its supporting facilities (hydrogen transmission pipeline and hydrogenation station) are also expected to become one of the important starting points of new infrastructure.
④ China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : wait for the conflict to ease, prepare for the first quarterly report
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) believes that in terms of “steady growth” market, the probability of traditional infrastructure has entered the expected cash stage. For financial real estate, the market is not expected to end: first, the growth target of about 5.5% is challenging, which will enhance the market’s expectation of easing the real estate policy; Second, more and more cities have joined the ranks of policy fine-tuning; Third, compared with the previous “steady growth” market, this round of real estate sector still has room for repair.
At present, with the expected landing of China’s annual economic growth and the determination of the rhythm of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike in March, the overseas environment is expected to become the most concerned uncertainty risk in the market for some time in the future. Once the conflict between Russia and Ukraine slows down, the next expected time node of A-Shares or the upcoming quarterly market.
