The stock index fell 0.11% this week. How will A-Shares operate next week? We have summarized the latest investment strategies of major institutions for investors’ reference.
CITIC strategy: the policy force is more clear, and the external impact is becoming clearer
The policies of the two sessions are positive, the objectives are clear, and the trend of steady growth is clear; The Russian Ukrainian incident accelerated the peak of inflation expectations. It is expected to see a turnaround in March. The “three bottoms” of the A-share market have been confirmed in turn. After the external impact is clear, it will usher in the resonance upward of value and growth. On the one hand, from the perspective of China’s economy and policies, we expect the overall economic data of the first two months to be stable, and the steady growth effect will initially appear. The two sessions have clear and clear objectives for the annual economic growth. It is expected that the follow-up policies will continue to increase, and the steady growth will achieve the expected effect during the year. On the other hand, from the perspective of external shocks, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected the supply prospects and price expectations of a series of industrial products, accelerated the rise of commodity prices, restricted the means of overseas central banks to control inflation and further pushed up inflation expectations. However, the clarity of the final trend of the Russian Ukrainian incident and the rapid weakening of global demand may reverse the current trend of commodity prices, We expect that the Russian Ukrainian conflict will usher in preliminary results in March. For A-Shares themselves, the recent market liquidity is relatively stable, and the pressure is significantly weaker than that before and after the Spring Festival. It is suggested to stick to the main line of steady growth, actively increase positions and continue the layout around the “two low positions”.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) strategy: wait for conflict mitigation and prepare for the first quarterly report
Once the conflict between Russia and Ukraine slows down, the next expected time node of A-Shares or the upcoming quarterly market. Over the past 15 years, the market performance before and after the disclosure period of the first quarterly report has been strong. At the same time, there is a certain positive correlation between the growth performance of the first quarterly report and the rise and fall performance in the first quarterly report. Looking forward to the possible first quarter market in mid and late March, we believe that we should pay attention to winning with quality and optimize the segments with high prosperity and expected to exceed expectations. Focus on: 1) some cyclical products with rising prosperity; 2) The bank that took the lead in the steady growth sector in the first quarter; 3) In the growth sector, photovoltaic modules / IGBT and semiconductor materials / CXO / military upstream / diaphragm and power battery leader / Gigabit broadband, etc., which still maintained a high boom in the first quarter and had no obvious damage to profitability; 4) Last year’s performance was significantly damaged, and the railway / thermal power expected to rebound in the first quarter.
Monarch strategy: spring cover is still needed after waking insects
This week, the Shanghai stock index continued the bottom shock trend. We maintained our judgment since February. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the short-term adjustment of the market. In the future, the molecular end will accelerate the force and the market warmth will become stronger. However, the negative disturbance at the denominator end is still the medium-term constraint of the market, limiting the recovery range. Don’t forget the spring cover. 1) The molecular end will accelerate the force: the two sessions will release positive signals. The GDP target growth rate of 5.5% in 2022 indicates that steady growth will accelerate the force. PMI has recovered slightly in February, and the molecular end will continue to play a supporting role in the future, making the market bottom down. Specifically mapped to the expected growth rate of earnings of listed companies, it can also be observed that the recent all a earnings expectation remains stable, even slightly higher than the predicted growth rate in early December. 2) The impact on the denominator is hard to break: the expected contraction of overseas liquidity and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine dominate the recent fluctuation on the denominator. In terms of overseas liquidity, the US non farm income increased by 678000 in February, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. It is a high probability that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp in March. In the future, the substantial implementation of the interest rate hike will reduce the uncertainty of liquidity expectations in stages. At the same time, Powell’s “inflation may fall within the year” on Wednesday also points to the rhythm of “Eagle before Dove” throughout the year, and the negative impact of overseas liquidity will be gradually weakened. However, with the continuous rise of crude oil and other bulk prices, the uncertainty of inflation outlook is still high, overseas liquidity will still be the medium-term constraint of the market, and the negative impact is difficult to break in the short term. In addition, the prospect of the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not clear, and the contagion of overseas emotions will still have an impact on market risk appetite. Overall, the market will gradually heat up in late March, but the impact on the denominator is difficult to break, which limits the recovery range.
Guohai strategy: how will the market interpret after the oil price breaks 100?
In February 2011, the rise of crude oil price was dominated by the substantial supply contraction caused by geographical conflict. After breaking the 100, the correlation between the performance of China’s commodity and bond market and oil price weakened, and the inflection points appeared before the high point of oil price. Under the optimistic market sentiment, the stock market rose first and then fell. In the process of oil price peaking, structural opportunities were mostly in the financial and cyclical sectors, The performance of the real estate chain with high industrial prosperity and the upstream cycle industry benefiting from the price rise factors are dominant. In February 2011, the crude oil price exceeded 100. After the periodic peak in April, it opened a high shock for three years. The main reason is the contradiction between the deterministic demand brought by the global economic repair and the substantive supply contraction caused by geographical conflict. When oil prices soared, China was in the cycle of low growth and high inflation in the post economic crisis period, and the tightening policy continued to increase. From the performance of major categories of assets, after the current round of oil prices broke 100, commodity prices soared in the short term and peaked. With the transformation of China’s policies, the bond market has realized the switching between bear market and bull market. Its core influencing factors still depend on the quality of economic fundamentals. The stock market is in a turbulent market in spring in the process of oil price peaking. After the oil price reaches the top range, the market enters the downward channel, and then fluctuates horizontally at a low level. Among them, the short-term cycle and finance are dominant, and the performance of real estate chain, post real estate cycle and upstream related industries is outstanding.
GF strategy: steady growth evolution theory is uncertainty in uncertainty
The reports of the two sessions have released clearer signals, and the high-quality and stable growth has been further clarified. A shares still need “careful thinking and practice”, “steady growth evolution” is the certainty of uncertainty. The combination of global stagflation + tightening has encountered geopolitical risks from Russia and Ukraine. Under the environment of “careful thinking and practice” – External uncertain “overseas stagflation” and internal new pattern “China’s high-quality and stable growth”, we suggest to focus on the “evolution theory of stable growth” and use the low peg strategy to continue to pay attention to the geopolitical risks and support inflation clues: 1 Resources / materials benefiting from the inflation logic of “supply and demand gap” (coal / aluminum / potassium fertilizer); 2. “Old style” steady growth will still bear the role of “stabilizer” (real estate / building materials / coal chemical industry); 3. “New” steady growth, focusing on the increase of inking during the two sessions and the direction agreed by PEG (digital economy / photovoltaic).
Guosheng strategy: if stagflation comes again, how to deal with it?
The expectation of China’s stagflation in Q3 of the 21st year continued to rise, reaching its peak before the shift of the supply guarantee policy in mid September. During this period, it showed typical stagflation configuration characteristics: cycle, Finance technology, consumption, undervalued value overvalued value, CSI 500 CSI 300 gem. The biggest difference between this round of stagflation expectation and last year is that on the one hand, geographical conflict plays the most important role, on the other hand, stagflation transmission from outside to inside. We believe that: first, stagflation in any case restricts interest rates and puts pressure on the valuation of growth stocks; Secondly, the expectation of stagflation caused by geographical conflict is naturally unpredictable, and the fluctuation risk of resource products and cyclical stocks is also increased accordingly; Third, in the context of intensified external shocks and the rising demand for stable growth in China, we are still in a macro combination of weak economy and low credit, and historical experience points to the predominance of undervalued style.
Livelihood Strategy: the trend is endless, and the real cycle is beginning
This week, the market value style and cycle sector outperformed significantly, the main line of inflation gradually surfaced, and our “real cycle” is gradually becoming a “new consensus” in the market. What we mentioned in the layout of the real cycle: the real cycle market has never taken steady growth as the cornerstone, nor the supply-demand gap caused by sanctions against Russia as the underlying logic. The real cycle is actually the co vibration of “green inflation” and “population reversal”, which has brought greater supply shock inflation, Overseas central banks, which are good at dealing with short-term credit fluctuations, lack effective measures to balance inflation and growth, which is impacting the credit monetary system of major countries in the world, resulting in the appreciation of physical assets relative to overseas credit currencies.
Steady growth and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are only the catalyst at both ends of supply and demand, not the essence of the problem.
Cinda strategy: the policy game is over
Short term strategy: the rebound has reached the late stage. The rebound may end as early as early March. The two sessions in March are very important landmark events. Before that, the policy is relatively friendly, and the steady growth policy can have more expectations, expectations and logic to dominate the market. After the two sessions, fundamental data will be more important. Therefore, early March, before and after the two sessions, will be the first time point when the rebound may end. Of course, the more important change may be to observe the quarterly report and high-frequency data of the industry from mid to late March to April. In the most optimistic case, if there is no problem with the quarterly report, the rebound can last until late March, but whether it is early March or late March, it is still a rebound.
West China strategy: the policy of stable growth of A-Shares during the two sessions is the main context
The government work report puts forward the GDP growth target of about 5.5%, which also shows that steady growth needs to be put in a more prominent position. The follow-up support policies in real estate, new and old infrastructure, consumption and other fields will be intensively introduced, which will help to build the bottom range of a shares. Due to the tense external geopolitical relations and the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, we expect the A-share market to continue to “grind the bottom repeatedly” in the short term, and we are not pessimistic about the A-share market in the medium and long term. In the short term, the main line of “steady growth” is still the main idea of allocation. Specific to the industry, pay attention to three main investment lines: first, the policy of “steady growth” allocation of varieties, such as “banking, real estate, building materials and construction”; Second, “food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) “, etc. expected to benefit from price increase (price increase); Third, the theme of benefiting from the promotion of policies (support), “new energy (vehicles), digital economy, East West calculation, agriculture, rural areas and farmers”, etc.
Western strategy: what investment opportunities will the two sessions bring
Style correction market is starting. Although the short-term market has been adjusted due to the disturbance of risk aversion caused by short-term geographical conflicts and the correction of market liquidity expectations caused by rising inflation expectations, it should be noted that profit changes are still the core variables that determine the operation of the market in the coming months. In such an environment, the boom track leader with large adjustment range in the early stage and high performance fulfillment will usher in a round of restorative market, which we call style correction market. From the perspective of structure, the current focus on the performance, and the prosperity track leaders such as new energy, semiconductor, medicine and military industry that can be determined to be fulfilled are expected to usher in phased repair. On the other hand, actively allocate the necessary consumption sectors highly related to profitability and inflation, including agriculture, food, textile and clothing, light industry, social services, retail, catering, shipping and other industries, which will become the main line throughout the year. In addition, in the market environment of rapid rotation this year, investors with high risk preference can follow the credit cycle and actively participate in the rotation fair of industries with high probability of profit inflection point in the upward stage of the credit cycle, such as construction, building materials, real estate, automobiles, household appliances and media. The theme focuses on the digital economy, the concept of three children, food security, the reform of the comprehensive registration system, etc.
