I. overseas markets: the geopolitical risks of Russia and Ukraine and the monetary policy shift of the Federal Reserve are the main factors disturbing the risk appetite of the global equity market recently recently, international oil prices have exceeded $110 / barrel. European and American sanctions against Russia, such as trade restrictions and excluding Russian banks from swift system, may further boost global inflation through the price of crude oil and other commodities. Powell's speech this week has basically determined that he will announce a 25 basis point interest rate increase at the FOMC meeting in March. However, if the inflation risk continues to rise, the market may have strong interest rate increase expectations again at the subsequent meeting.
II. According to the government work report, GDP growth is about 5.5%, and steady growth requires efforts from many aspects "the report" mentioned that the risks and challenges faced by China's development have increased significantly this year, and we must climb over the barrier. Therefore, in the requirements of economic development, we need to put steady growth in a more prominent position. To achieve the goal of GDP growth of 5.5%, we believe that: 1) the urgency of supporting the recovery of the real estate industry is increasing; 2) Carry out infrastructure construction moderately ahead of schedule. Strengthen the construction of new infrastructure such as 5g, data center and industrial Internet, promote the digital transformation of traditional infrastructure, and pay close attention to the transformation and construction of urban pipelines; Strengthen network security and data security; Continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles; 3) Active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy; 4) This year, the military budget increased by 7.1%, maintaining a rapid and reasonable growth level.
III. due to the implementation of policies in many cities, the real estate policy continues to release the signal of maintaining stability since the fourth quarter of last year, the real estate policy has been continuously adjusted. From the sales data of real estate enterprises in February, the current sales of the real estate industry is still weak. Recently, Zhengzhou, Shandong Dezhou, Kunming, Tangshan and other cities have issued policies to stabilize real estate, including reducing the proportion of down payment and mortgage interest rate. It is expected that subsequent regions will successively introduce real estate adjustment policies due to urban implementation. With the continuous relaxation of policies at both ends of supply and demand, the "market bottom" of real estate may be ushered in around the middle of this year.
IV. investment strategy: A shares usher in the two sessions, and the "steady growth" policy is the main context government work report puts forward the GDP growth target of about 5.5%, which also indicates that steady growth needs to be put in a more prominent position. The follow-up support policies in real estate, new and old infrastructure, consumption and other fields will be intensively introduced, which will help to build the bottom range of a shares. Due to the tense external geopolitical relations and the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, we expect the A-share market to continue to "grind the bottom repeatedly" in the short term, and we are not pessimistic about the A-share market in the medium and long term. In the short term, the main line of "steady growth" is still the main idea of allocation. Specific to the industry, pay attention to three main investment lines:
First, the policy of "steady growth" allocated varieties, such as " banks, real estate, building materials and construction ";
Second, the expected benefit of price increase (price increase), " food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ";
Third, it is related to the themes that benefit from the promotion of policies (support), " new energy (vehicles), digital economy, counting East and West, agriculture, rural areas and farmers ".
risk tips: geo risk escalation; Repeated outbreaks outside China; Large fluctuations in overseas markets; The profit of the enterprise is less than expected.
