In 2021, the structural market of A-Shares is prominent. How will the 2022 market interpret? Is the high boom track sustainable next year? Has the traditional consumption and medicine fallen through? Have Hong Kong stocks bottomed out? What investment opportunities and risks need to be paid attention to in the future?
In response to the above problems, the reporter interviewed six outstanding private placement leaders to jointly feel the trend of the stock market and structural investment opportunities in 2022. They are Wang Penghui, chairman of wangzheng assets, Luo Xiaochun, founder of Hanhe capital, Zou Yi, general manager and investment director of Shenzhen Red chip investment, sun Jiandong, director of Hongdao investment, Zhang Xiuqi, general manager of fun time assets and Lu hang, chairman of Fusheng assets.
structured slow bull opportunity still exists
wide shocks may be more frequent
China Fund News: looking forward to 2022, what are the expectations for the macroeconomic and market environment and what are the core factors affecting the market? What do you think of the market trend next year?
Wang Penghui: 2021 is another epoch-making watershed after 2009. The overall market is calm, but the structural differentiation is extremely serious. The large consumption with excellent performance for many consecutive years has continued to decline, and the assets of advanced manufacturing and specialized new categories have been sought after. Over the past years, relying on supply side reform and residents' leverage, China's economic growth has been maintained. The asset performance growth of large consumption categories has been prominent and sustained, which has been fully reflected by the capital market. With the peak decline of real estate sales area and the suppression of the rising space of residents' leverage ratio, the long-term performance growth of large consumer assets will be under pressure, which has been reflected in 2021. The assets of advanced manufacturing categories represented by electric vehicles and semiconductors achieved performance growth in 2021, showing a strong upward momentum.
In 2022, the expectation that the epidemic will dissipate will be stronger. The United States will enter the monetary tightening cycle, while China will enter the easing cycle due to the increase of macroeconomic pressure. The overall valuation of the A-share market is reasonable and the liquidity will be relatively loose. We believe that the opportunities of the A-share market in 2022 are greater than the risks.
Luo Xiaochun: we are full of confidence in China's long-term economic development. China has the world's largest domestic demand market. Under the dual trend of high-end manufacturing upgrading and consumption upgrading, the macroeconomic momentum is still strong. There are many short-term market factors, which will be affected by liquidity, external environment, epidemic development and other factors. But in the long run, the core factor that really affects the market is the economic fundamentals themselves. Since 2020, in the face of repeated tests of the epidemic, we are glad to see that many excellent Chinese enterprises have withstood the pressure, increased overseas market share and rapidly replaced domestic products at home.
In 2022, China will still be one of the fastest growing countries in the world's major economies, and listed companies with global leading standards will emerge. China has produced the world's largest enterprises in some fields. I believe this trend will become more and more obvious in the future. As a fund manager, Hanhe hopes to grow together with these excellent listed companies and share the dividends brought by China's long-term economic development, which Hanhe will insist on doing in the past nine years, now and in the future. Although it is inevitable to experience short-term market fluctuations in the process, we believe that as long as we insist on doing the right thing, the long-term cumulative results will be very good.
Zou Yi: looking forward to 2022, the core assumptions affecting the market are that the global epidemic will continue, the endogenous driving force of economic recovery is still fragile, but the marginal easing space of liquidity is no longer optimistic. The biggest change at the macro level next year is the transformation of the liquidity environment between China and the United States. Under the requirements of maintaining stable economic growth, China's liquidity will be relatively loose in 2021, while the liquidity environment in the United States is tightening, and the performance of China's equity market is expected to be stronger than that of US stocks.
We expect that the real liquidity tightening in the United States will not be very strong. Under the disturbance of the epidemic, U.S. inflation will remain high, but it is very difficult to achieve full employment. Under the background of the mid-term election, the process of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is difficult to be smooth, and the impact on emerging markets may be slow and phased, which may not necessarily constitute a substantial large impact in 2022. Under the background of high-quality development and structural transformation in China, the relaxation of pre judgment policies will also be relatively restrained. The downward pressure of endogenous demand in the real estate industry is still large, and the power of policies lies in trust rather than promotion. Generally speaking, based on the current overall valuation of China's capital market is relatively reasonable and the liquidity margin is loose, we judge that the market trend is still neutral and there are still opportunities for structured slow bulls. However, affected by the external financial environment, intermittent wide shocks may occur more frequently.
Sun Jiandong: from a long-term perspective, the gradual withdrawal of the real estate engine from the center of the stage is the most fundamental event affecting China's macro-economy and stock market. With the emergence of the inflection point of the accelerated decline of the working population, China's real estate industry has entered an inflection point of a historic long-term trend, and the long-term expectations of the whole society for the future of real estate have changed. The ability of the traditional economic system to create credit for intermediaries through real estate has also shrunk accordingly. When the "multiplier" in the heart of traditional economic subjects has shrunk, the phased credit expansion policy "moves against the heart", which will be more hedged by the shrinkage of economic subjects, and can not effectively promote credit expansion. In addition, in addition to affecting the prosperity of the macro economy and the failure of credit expansion, the greater impact on the stock market in 2022 comes from the changes in the capital side of the stock market.
The increase of stock market funds mainly comes from residents' subscription funds, which mainly depends on the growth of residents' income, especially disposable income. Although the stock wealth of ultra-high net worth people will continue to switch to securities assets, taking into account the decline in the growth rate of disposable income of a wider population of residents, on the whole, the scale of residents' purchase of funds in 2022 will be directly affected.
2022 will be a year when the tide will recede. Especially in the first half of 2022, each broad-based stock index will be under the pressure of the ebb tide of funds, and the downward space of the broad-based index is more likely than the upward space.
Lu hang: we think the core factor is that there are great differences between the two major economies in terms of economic growth trend and monetary policy trend. The impact of the epidemic on the economic growth of China and the United States is different. At the same time, China's monetary policy is relatively loose, while the United States tends to tighten. This difference may have some structural impact on the market. On the whole, we think next year may still be dominated by structural market. In terms of investment, we are cautiously optimistic and still want to find high-quality Chinese enterprises.
Zhang Xiuqi: it is expected that the macro economy will stabilize at a low level and repair slowly next year. The stock market environment will change greatly compared with this year. Loose policies may be the main theme in 2022, especially in the first half of the year. In this context, the stock market should still contain many structural opportunities next year.
simple track investment doesn't work
optimistic about high-end manufacturing, consumption upgrading, new energy vehicles, etc.
China Fund News: what investment strategy will be adopted in 2022? Which industries and sectors are more optimistic about opportunities? In addition, what risks may exist?
Luo Xiaochun: in 2022, Hanhe will continue to adhere to the ultra long-term value investment strategy, excavate the investment targets with long-term embedded value far greater than the current market price, and obtain the income of improving the internal value of the enterprise through long-term holding.
There are many very good investment opportunities in the current market, including the upgrading of high-end manufacturing industry, consumption upgrading under the background of the rise of national tide, digital transformation, energy conservation and emission reduction, domestic substitution, new infrastructure, etc. China's per capita GDP has exceeded US $10000, and our comparative advantage has also transitioned from demographic dividend to engineer dividend and brand dividend. I believe the market opportunities in the next 10 years will be different from those in the past 10 years.
In the field of manufacturing, China has the most complete industrial chain in the world. The manufacturing industry has strong advantages in product iteration speed and customer service. It is difficult for customers to return to the past products after trying Chinese industrial products. It is believed that under the background of the transformation, upgrading and digitization of the manufacturing industry, the trend of domestic substitution will be more obvious. On the other hand, the recognition of made in China overseas is also improving. In the future, more Chinese manufacturing enterprises will go abroad, explore overseas markets and enhance global market share.
In the field of consumption, domestic brands do better in product quality, national fashion elements, consumer interaction and product marketing. More and more consumers, especially young consumers, are willing to choose domestic brands. China's brand bonus period is coming.
Hanhe always adheres to the coverage of the whole industry, will not be limited by the existing thinking framework, and excavates the investment targets in line with our stock selection concept. We believe that it is the internal value of the enterprise that ultimately determines the market price of a company.
Investment risk comes more from buying investment targets that do not match their value at too high prices. Hanhe hopes to find companies with real core value drivers. If the companies held in our portfolio are always significantly undervalued compared with the price, the risk exposure will be at a very low level.
Zou Yi: in terms of investment strategy, in response to the structured slow bull market under the assumption that the general trend is neutral and more, our portfolio construction is mainly divided into two parts: first, build the underlying asset portfolio with undervalued value, tap the business increment opportunities under the new economic environment for the undervalued industry companies operating steadily, and track the turnaround of the bottom recovery of the industry boom; Second, in the high boom track, look for new opportunities brought by the upstream and downstream cost structure transformation of the industry and the acceleration of domestic substitution. After full verification, tap leading and champion companies in the subdivided fields with high growth confidence and choose the opportunity for layout.
At the industry level, green power, military industry and new energy industry chain support are both policy driven and actual demand driven, and there are typical opportunities. At the risk level, on the one hand, it is the crowded trading risk of high boom track, on the other hand, it is the overseas fluctuation risk.
Sun Jiandong: in October 2019, Hongdao investment published Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) , new blue chips and new investment methodology, which put forward the concept of the old and new world from the economic dimension: the old world in the past 20 or 30 years is a world of long-term inflation; In July 2019, the Politburo meeting proposed that "housing is not fried" to Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) in the coming decades, which is a relatively unfamiliar Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) accompanied by long-term deflationary pressure. In this sense, hung Tao investment is a strategic bearer of the life insurance industry. It is believed that real estate and Baijiu are the beginning of the end. The new growth industry represented by technology and high-end manufacturing will usher in "beautiful Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) ".
In 2022, even for " Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) " industries and companies in the industry, attractive investment return opportunities will be significantly reduced. Simple track investment is more likely to be a way to lose money. We should not only select the right industry, but also select the target stocks in the industry, so as to obtain better investment income.
In 2022, China's stock market will usher in a Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) with higher skewness of investment return. In terms of specific sectors, after the main thrust of the rising performance trend, the military industry ushers in the second driving force of high-quality asset injection or Asset Integrity acquisition. The multiplication of the two forces may lead to a number of stocks with a share price increase of more than double in the military industry in 2022. Intelligent distribution network will become a "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity" with better cost performance. The distributed construction near the power load center is unstoppable. Distribution network intelligence and distribution network energy storage (microgrid energy storage) achieve each other. From the stock starting point in 2021, excluding the stock with the largest market value, the distribution network intelligence index has twice the rising space in two years.
Lu hang: we have been building our portfolio by selecting individual stocks from the bottom up. From the perspective of industries and sectors, we believe that the industry will tend to be "balanced" next year, and there is little probability that the "Ning index" will significantly outperform the "Mao index" this year. Whether it is new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, or consumer medicine, there are corresponding opportunities. This year, more attention is focused on the overall growth rate of the industry, and next year, it may sink to the judgment and grasp of the competition pattern in specific subdivided industries. The risk points are mainly concentrated in two aspects: one is the epidemic situation and the other is the level of inflation.
Zhang Xiuqi: for stock investment in 2022, we will continue to focus on growth industries and sectors. In 2021, high boom sectors may differentiate, but they will still breed many opportunities. Sectors with poor performance this year, such as technology and consumption, will provide more investment opportunities for stock selection next year. On the one hand, the investment risk in 2022 may come from the negative transmission of external Fed tightening, on the other hand, it may come from the risk of decline in the performance of listed companies under China's economic stall.
the valuation of new energy and lithium battery is not low
adjustment or layout opportunity
China Fund News: the new energy vehicle and lithium battery sectors have performed prominently this year. How do you view the current valuation and future space of this sector? If there is a chance next year, which part of the industrial chain is more optimistic?
Wang Penghui: industrial development has always been the foundation of the capital market. The global penetration rate of vehicle electrification is about 7%, which is expected to reach 10% in 2022. From the perspective of industrial life cycle, it has just entered the accelerated growth curve. Relying on its strong manufacturing advantages, China occupies a good industrial position in the field of electric vehicles, and Chinese enterprises face huge industrial space. From a global perspective, the intellectualization of vehicles is a breakthrough industrial revolution, which will drive broader change and growth. The electrification and intellectualization of cars are investment opportunities in an era. The rise in 2020 and 2021 is not the end of this industry investment opportunity, but just the beginning. In the short term, there may be adjustment pressure due to high market expectations, but we believe that the adjustment is an opportunity for layout. The opportunities brought by the development of emerging industries are still our focus, but more risk factors need to be considered than in the past three years.
Luo Xiaochun: under the national "double carbon" strategy of achieving peak carbon and carbon neutralization with high quality, the new energy industry has a large long-term market space. In the process of achieving the dual carbon goal, there are bound to be many high-quality listed companies. Hanhe has always been concerned about investment opportunities related to new energy. The industry in the expansion period should calmly consider whether the enterprise value comes from the company itself or the industry dividend. Any industry will experience fluctuations in the development process. Only companies that can remain competitive when experiencing industry changes can have long-term value. We will not stick to short-term valuation indicators and will maintain objective evaluation criteria for all industries and companies. We hope to make investment decisions by finding the core value drivers of the company and comparing the long-term intrinsic value of the enterprise with the current market price.
Zou Yi: this year, the new energy vehicles and lithium battery sectors performed prominently, the market gave a high valuation premium to the high prosperity and certainty, and the transaction structure was also concentrated and crowded. This year, the sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is much higher than the market expectation. We believe that it is reasonable for the market to give overvalued value, but high valuation often means potential high volatility. We believe that the new energy vehicle industry has high confidence in the prosperity and prospect, and has long-term investment value after excluding the volatility risk of overvalued premium. This year's opportunities in the industry are mainly reflected in vehicle manufacturers and lithium battery industry chain. In the future, in the process of stabilizing upstream material costs, increasing demand and reshaping the supply chain, we believe that there will still be more opportunities in the directions of domestic rise of vehicle and parts industry chain, automobile electrification, intelligence and new energy operators.
Lu hang: our view on new energy is cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term. In the short term, on the one hand, new energy related stocks have increased significantly during the year, and there is a certain pressure on valuation; On the other hand, the competition in the industrial structure of many subdivided industries of new energy is intensified, which may put some pressure on the subsequent growth of each company. In the long run, the energy revolution is the general trend. In the new energy and lithium battery industries, Chinese enterprises have great leading advantages in technology, which is really an investment opportunity of "world demand, made in China". We are optimistic about the global comparative advantages and investment value of these high-end manufacturing companies in China.
Sun Jiandong: in the first quarter of 2022, the new energy vehicle industry will probably experience a rise driven by the new subscription fund funds in the stock market. After that, the investment opportunities in the upper and middle reaches tend to be mediocre, and the investment opportunities in the downstream and downstream application fields are gradually wonderful.
Zhang Xiuqi: the valuation of new energy and lithium battery sector is indeed not low, but its growth is also relatively good. It belongs to the field with sufficient valuation and pricing. The future space still lies in the better than expected performance of fundamentals. We are relatively more optimistic about the opportunities of middle and downstream sectors.
The consumer and pharmaceutical sectors are expected to perform better next year than this year's
China Fund News: consumption, medicine and other sectors performed poorly in 2021. Will spring usher in the first quarter of next year? What do you think of its current valuation and fundamentals?
Luo Xiaochun: consumption and medicine are closely related to people's livelihood. There have been many excellent enterprises that have brought good returns to investors in history, both in overseas markets and A-share markets. The short-term market fluctuation is very normal. Fluctuation is an inherent attribute of equity investment. Just as the operation of enterprises will not be smooth, it is important for enterprises to adhere to the strategy during the expansion period of the industry and actively adjust and respond during the contraction period of the industry. The growth of the enterprise itself is not completely positively related to its industry. The ability of the company itself is more important than the dividend of the industry. There are many factors affecting short-term market expectations. We can't judge how these industries will perform in the next quarter. Hanhe still holds companies that can cross the cycle for a long time from the internal value of the enterprise itself.
Zou Yi: there is no doubt about the long-term investment value of consumption and medicine, but too high valuation means that the long-term compound rate of return is compressed. Many leading companies have entered the stage of slowing down growth due to factors such as policies or costs. Corresponding to not low valuation, the cost performance is not high. Of course, we do not rule out some new changes in the industry, such as the rise of domestic products, innovative drugs, Innovation Medical Management Co.Ltd(002173) equipment, etc., which we are also tracking for a long time.
Wang Penghui: in 2022, with the adjustment of stock price and the digestion of valuation, there may be periodic opportunities for large consumer assets that will continue to be under pressure in 2021. Some industries seriously suppressed by the epidemic will have more prominent performance with the dissipation of the epidemic and the strengthening of expectations. 2021 is a year of balanced return, with balanced return of size and style, balanced return of consumption and manufacturing, reversal of market structure and large industry differences. After the completion of the return, 2022 will present richer investment opportunities under the background of loose overall liquidity.
Lu hang: we have no advantage in judging the trend of the overall industry. Therefore, we try not to make such prediction, but rather analyze and judge the investment value at the specific company level. For consumption, we pay more attention to investment opportunities under the new consumption trend. In addition, we can see that under the epidemic situation, many Chinese manufacturing enterprises are becoming more and more stable in the international supply chain. After honing in 2021, many new international suppliers have emerged, and there are great investment opportunities next year.
Sun Jiandong: for the mass consumer goods industry, new consumption with "consumption degradation" as the core has become the mainstream investment opportunity, and consumer goods with low price but high cost performance have become the main theme of Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) . The high-end Baijiu industry may usher in a new stage of financial and return to normal commodity price attributes. In 2022, if the price factor of DCF model disappeared, if the interest rate of long term debt did not break 2%, the price earnings ratio of most high-end Baijiu would be 20 times below.
Zhang Xiuqi: the poor performance of consumption, medicine and other sectors in 2021 is related to their valuation and performance. Next year's performance is expected to be better than this year. On the one hand, the valuation will be digested. On the other hand, from a fundamental point of view, the performance of white horse blue chip will be differentiated, and the medicine sector greatly affected by policies is expected to recover next year.
Hong Kong stock valuation is at the bottom of history
long term optimistic about Hong Kong stock investment opportunities
China Fund News: Hong Kong stocks fell sharply this year. Is it time for layout? For Hong Kong stocks, what investment opportunities do you mainly focus on?
Luo Xiaochun: from the perspective of index, the performance of Hong Kong stocks this year is indeed poor, but if you look at the level of individual stocks, there are many companies with good performance. If the investment targets we are optimistic about are listed in A-Shares and Hong Kong shares at the same time, and Hong Kong shares are at a significant discount, as an ultra long-term value investor, we will certainly choose to invest in Hong Kong shares. As an important part of China's capital market, the Hong Kong market is dominated by Chinese listed companies. I believe that with the continuous development of these enterprises and China's economy, the Hong Kong stock market will also perform well in the long run.
In the process of research, we don't care where the company is listed. If we think the investment target with higher cost performance happens to be listed in Hong Kong stocks, our position will be in Hong Kong stocks. Whether it is the industry in which the investment target is located or the listed market, it is the result of our continuous tracking, comparison and screening, not our starting point. Whether it is A-Shares or Hong Kong shares, the investment opportunities that need to be paid attention to are the same, and the price of listed companies will return to value in the end.
Zou Yi: the decline of Hong Kong stocks this year is mainly concentrated in companies in real estate, Internet and education affected by policies. At present, the valuation of some Internet companies seems not expensive, but based on the uncertainty of fundamentals, we have not made layout yet. At this stage, our investment in Hong Kong stocks mainly focuses on undervalued state-owned enterprises (especially central enterprises), such as construction materials, power, communication, finance, real estate and other industry leading companies with good competition pattern.
Lu hang: we don't have any clear views on Hong Kong stocks as a whole. We still focus on specific listed companies, mainly on the investment opportunities of Internet and consumer companies.
Zhang Xiuqi: the performance of Hong Kong stocks has been poor for two consecutive years, and the valuation is at the bottom of history. From the medium and long-term perspective, it may be the time point of layout.
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(China Fund News)
