At the turn of years, many public funds such as Haifutong, China Europe, Huatai Bairui and Jingshun Great Wall successively released investment strategy reports for 2022. Although the market volatility may increase, each fund company is still optimistic about the equity market in 2022. Under structural opportunities, green energy and consumption sectors may become the two main investment lines.
As far as the overall economic operation is concerned, Haifutong believes that the economy of the world's major economies continues to repair under the stimulation of loose policies. Compared with overseas countries, China's policy space is relatively larger, and the first quarter of 2022 will be the window period for policy development. In 2022, with the rebound of credit hitting the bottom, the growth rate of social finance will enter a new round of rising cycle, but the range remains to be observed; The interest rate is likely to remain volatile, and the direction of the shock depends on the extent of the economic rebound. Jingshun Great Wall said that under the marginal tightening of overseas liquidity and the reasonable and abundant conduction of China's liquidity, corporate profits are expected to gradually stabilize.
Referring to the A-share market in 2022, Jingshun Great Wall believes that on the whole, next year may not be an index level market, and the structural market probability will continue. "Growth in 2022 is still an important main line, and the style is more balanced and convergent." YONGYING Fund said. In Huatai Bairui's view, the second quarter of 2022 is the time window for all A-share profits to bottom out and stabilize, and the profit toughness of blue chips will reflect their comparative advantages. It is expected that the required consumption, finance and medicine will maintain a steady growth rate of more than 10% in the first half of the year, and the profit recovery in the second half of the year will focus on scientific and technological growth and optional consumer industries.
"Green energy represented by new energy vehicles, wind power, photovoltaic and energy storage, as well as core links such as automotive electronics, automotive chips and energy infrastructure, will be one of the important investment lines of A-Shares next year." Jingshun Great Wall said that under the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the investment in new energy related manufacturing industries such as wind power, photovoltaic, energy storage and power grid construction will maintain rapid growth and the prosperity will continue to improve; Under the promotion of multiple factors such as demand boost, investment in manufacturing industry in high-tech directions such as intelligent manufacturing, high-end equipment, electronic information, specialization and innovation is also expected to achieve rapid growth.
"In the context of reasonable and abundant liquidity next year, we are still relatively optimistic about the capital market, which is conducive to the overall performance of growth stocks." Liu Weiwei of China Europe Fund said, "we are optimistic about industries with low economic relevance and can maintain high-speed growth according to their own industrial cycle during the economic downturn, such as high-end manufacturing such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, military industry and semiconductors."
Liu Weiwei believes that new energy vehicles or intelligent electric vehicle products continue to be recognized by consumers. After crossing the critical point of penetration, their categories continue to show an accelerated upward trend, and the global production and sales volume will still achieve rapid growth next year. In addition, the energy storage market is expected to explode next year. It is suggested that when paying attention to the lithium battery industry chain, in addition to electric vehicles, we can also pay attention to the pull of energy storage on the lithium battery industry.
Turning to the photovoltaic sector, Liu Weiwei believes that the core driving force behind the photovoltaic industry is to reduce the cost of kwh electricity through cost reduction and promote the development of the whole industry. With the continuous decline of silicon material price, the industry may enter a smooth and benign development track next year. "This year, due to the sharp rise in the price of silicon material in the upstream and the rise in the price of the industrial chain, the customers of large central enterprises dominated by centralized power stations in China delayed the installation plan, and the component enterprises reduced the operating rate at the end of the year. In the future, with the solution of the bottleneck of silicon material capacity supply, we will see the release of silicon material capacity."
For the investment in science and technology growth stocks, Chen Guoguang, manager of Tianhong innovation pilot fund, said that in 2022, it will focus on five directions: Automotive intelligence, virtual reality, energy storage, semiconductor and automotive electronics. Huatai Bairui suggested paying attention to the two main lines of growth and profit boom and blue chip valuation reversal. Among them, the first quarter is optimistic about new infrastructure, technology and securities companies. In the second quarter, we focused on the market performance of blue chip sectors such as consumption and finance. In the second half of the year, with the recovery of profits and the growth of advanced manufacturing and TMT (technology, media and communication), investment opportunities are expected to emerge again.
"New energy and consumption of white horse stocks are the two major directions for the layout in 2022." Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, believes that the current decline of consumer stocks is a better allocation opportunity. In the future, the cross-year market led by consumer stocks will further evolve, and some high-quality leading stocks will usher in opportunities, which may be the main line throughout 2022. Wu Yue, director of the research on the consumption of Harvest Fund, also predicts that next year's approximate rate is a big year of consumption. It is not ruled out that consumption will become the most important investment clue in the market at a certain time window. However, the Baijiu industry may have a split market next year. What is more optimistic is the direction of food and the consumption of choice.
(economic information daily)
