Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : high quality blue chips are getting better and better. It is suggested to closely follow the two main lines and layout the “three low positions”

Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the market game will intensify at the end of the year, and the “high cut low” transaction will enter the midfield, and the high-quality blue chip will be better and better in the beginning of the year. It is suggested to focus on the two main lines and layout the “three low positions”. first of all, the relay of steady growth policy is in progress, and it still takes time to form a joint force. It is expected that the data in the fourth quarter will show an obvious recovery trend of China’s economy. The data in the first quarter of next year will fully reflect the effect of policy joint force, and market confidence will be repaired quickly. Secondly, at the end of the year, both the admission of incremental funds and the transfer of stock funds will reflect the characteristics of water flowing to the low, “cutting high to low” is still the trading direction with the least resistance, and the cross-year market style is still obviously biased towards the market and low-level blue chip repair. Finally, the “good start” of bank credit at the beginning of the year may exceed expectations, which will confirm the trend of credit cycle repair; The new “good start” of public offering makes the market more liquid. It is expected that the high-quality blue chip market of A-Shares will be better and better at the beginning of 2022.

It is suggested to closely follow the two main lines of the implementation of stable growth policy and the recovery of consumption price, and firmly focus on the “three low points” for the cross-year layout of blue chip varieties. Focus: 1. The expected low level of the basic varieties is still focused on the manufacturing of mid stream, which is suppressed by cost and supply chain problems, such as auto parts and power equipment, and gradually add some consumption and pharmaceutical sectors such as Baijiu, food, vaccine to the reasonable interval. 2。 For the varieties whose valuation is still relatively low, pay attention to the high-quality developers and building materials enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, as well as the Internet leaders of Hong Kong stocks after the impact of China concept stocks; 3。 High boom varieties with relatively low stock price after adjustment, such as semiconductor equipment driven by localization logic, special chip devices and military industry.

Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: focus on steady growth and still need to adjust the structure

Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that the recent high market volatility has narrowed the profit-making effect, which is reflected not only in the significant adjustment of the broad-based index represented by the gem index, but also in the weekly level, only 30% of the number of stocks recorded an increase. The main reasons behind the adjustment and fluctuation are as follows: 1) the comprehensive RRR reduction since December superimposed with the one-year LPR reduction, and the loose expectation has been fulfilled in stages; 2) The expectation of overseas interest rate hikes has risen, and global inflation and the spread of the epidemic have formed a dilemma intersection; 3) Phased factors such as “cracking down on counterfeiting” foreign capital have brought great pressure on growth sectors such as new energy with crowded transactions and high valuation. Despite the disturbance, new momentum is still brewing, and the transmission chain of “policy bottom → valuation bottom → profit bottom” will be carried out relay. Looking forward to the future, we maintain the judgment that “agitation is not achieved overnight” and believe that the rhythm of this round of cross-year offensive is more moderate. with the gradual implementation of specific policies for steady growth in the first quarter of 2022 and the relaxation expectation opening up imagination space again, the cross year market will still be further deduced.

Suggestions on industry configuration: the growth force and the ripples are gradually opening. From the central economic work conference, the next stage of the policy core margin is to stabilize the economy, and to add the revised range of pessimism according to the order of steady growth, and recommend: 1) consumption: accelerate the expected bottom; recommend the direction of Baijiu, pig, household appliances, furniture and social service / tourism that are supported by performance and negative expectations. 2) Finance: securities companies and banks; 3) Consumer electronics; 4) Infrastructure: grasp the key points of new infrastructure such as BIPV and power operation, and also pay attention to the development of traditional infrastructure under steady growth.

China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the “steady growth” of A-Shares continues

China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that the central economic work conference held in the early stage released a more positive policy attitude, and the recent measures such as the central bank’s LPR reduction also sent a relatively clear easing signal. Combined with the above environment, we believe that although the recent performance of the market is slightly depressed, we don’t have to be too pessimistic. From historical experience, the market tends to gradually turn positive in the period of more clear policy implementation or significant improvement of forward-looking indicators. we believe that the short-term “steady growth” policy is expected to be implemented gradually in the future. In the medium term, the cycle of growth and policy at home and abroad will be reversed again in 2022, and structural trends such as valuation and liquidity support, industrial upgrading and so on are expected to support market performance.

In terms of style, we estimate that the short-term performance of track growth stocks may be restrained due to their large increase, high valuation and expectation and heavy overall institutional positions, while the areas related to the “stable growth” policy may continue to show relative toughness, and the market is still expected to show the style characteristics of “big strength and small weakness”; After the growth expectation gradually stabilizes and the “steady growth” transaction cools down, the market may return to the growth style. We roughly estimate that the time point is 3-6 months later.

Suggestions on industry allocation: the allocation will continue to tilt towards policy expectations and the middle and lower reaches. 1) Areas potentially supported by marginal change or development of policies, including industrial chains related to stable demand for infrastructure and real estate (construction, building materials, household appliances, home furnishings, real estate, etc.), potential consumption support areas, securities companies, etc; 2) For the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted this year, the valuation is not high, and the medium – and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including food and beverage, medicine, household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, etc; 3) It may be restrained in the short term and pay attention to the manufacturing direction with high prosperity in the medium term, including new energy vehicles, new energy and scientific and technological hardware semiconductors. It selects shares and configures them according to the change of prosperity degree of industrial chain links, with special attention to the manufacturing opportunities in transmission and distribution upgrading, auto parts and other links.

Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : pay attention to the cross year market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and pay attention to three main lines

Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that from the review of previous restless market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the cross year market usually occurs every year. The reason behind this is that the end of the year and the beginning of the year are often the time window for major meetings. At the same time, there are few basic data disclosure of A-Shares from November to March, and the capital interest rate usually falls at the beginning of the year, so the risk preference of investors in the beginning of the year is relatively higher. On the whole, the market performance from July to October this year is relatively weak, the current valuation is acceptable, and the liquidity is relatively abundant. Based on the history, this cross year market may be started in advance this year. The rise of the index is not violent at present, but the bottom of the market has been slowly rising. Before November, the bottom of the CSI 300 was about 4800 points, and the bottom of the index has been significantly raised recently. Specifically, we can focus on three main lines: undervalued big finance, high boom hard technology and consumption follow-up rebound.

China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : hold the turbulence, beat the short with the long, and the cross year market is not finished

China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) think, hold the bumps and beat the short with the long. The next year’s market will pick up levels in the “hesitation” of the market and the alternating rotation of plates. Since we put forward the “cross year market” in mid November, the index has risen significantly, but the market is not “firm”. The market always has doubts and differences, and presents a state of “waiting for signal verification → rapid rise → shock consolidation”. The core reason is that as we have repeatedly stressed, this wave of cross year market is similar to the spring offensive in previous years, and most of the core driving forces come from the warming of policy expectations and risk appetite. Therefore, it is also vulnerable to changes in market expectations and some short-term negative factors. This week, the overall market rose, fell and continued to fluctuate, which was mainly affected by institutional position congestion, year-end balance structure, overseas epidemic disturbance, year-end capital return and other factors. However, the “anti humanity” of investment is that we need to overcome the current anxiety and turbulence with relatively long-term and rational judgment. we believe that the current cross year market is not over, the market logic is still established, and continues to be realized and strengthened. Therefore, hold the bumps and beat the short with the long, and the cross-year market is not finished to be continued.

investment strategy: in the short term, on the one hand, grasp the phased opportunities for the repair of undervalued state-owned real estate enterprises and securities companies, on the other hand, lay out “small high-tech” with long-term fighting short and bargain hunting. For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).

Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : “spring agitation” occurs every year, and A-Shares are still “available”

Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) indicates that A-Shares are still in the “possible stage” where the numerator end is expected to be flat and the denominator end is expected to be supported. The recent market is relatively under pressure: Biden’s 1.75 trillion reconstruction of a better future act has been frustrated, which restricts the US economic growth expectation and the expectation of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars going to sea in 22 years, the US inflation is still high, the global epidemic has been repeated, the recent Chinese policy has not exceeded the expectation, and the negative news of the new energy vehicle chain has led to negative feedback on market sentiment. We judge that the current A-share is still a “viable stage”: the central bank’s regular monetary meeting in the fourth quarter continues to emphasize “stability first”, and the unilateral reduction of LPR brings the expectation of MLF interest rate reduction in early 22. From the perspective of market linkage, as long as the convertible bond remains strong, the probability of A-share is still a “viable stage”.

“Available stage” is also an opportunity for bargain hunting to layout “spring agitation”. We judge that the current “spring agitation” is supported: the main line of the policy of “stability first” and the MLF lowering expectations. Recently, A-Shares are relatively under pressure, but at present, A-Shares are still “possible stage”. “Spring agitation” occurs every year. It is suggested to focus on the main line of “double carbon wide credit” and some new energy / consumption / technology manufacturing segments with the advantage of “cross year valuation difference”. It is recommended to continue the high-low region equilibrium for industry configuration – 1. Lowering the reserve requirement and stabilizing the real estate chain (securities companies, white power and consumer building materials); 2。 “Double carbon and wide credit” + steady growth of new infrastructure (green power operators and military industry); 3。 Price increase expectation under ppi-cpi transmission (food processing).

Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : firm confidence, structural market is far from over

Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that in the short term, A-Shares are ready for the new year and are ready for the restless market at the beginning of the year. Since December, the monetary policy of western countries led by the United States has been tightened, superimposed with the spread of mutant strains, and the global market has fluctuated to a certain extent; At the same time, under the warming of institutional capital game at the end of the year, the rotation of A-share plate intensified. The trend of China’s foreign policies is different. In the warm period of the “stable growth” policy, the monetary policy will be more active and promising in the next stage, the market liquidity will remain abundant, the credit supply is expected to accelerate at the beginning of the year, and the probability of MLF interest rate reduction is also increasing. In the environment of market shock, bargain hunting can be arranged in the restless direction in spring, biased towards consumption growth.

In terms of industry allocation, there are three main investment lines: 1) growth sectors, such as new energy (vehicle) and electronic industry chain; 2) the “Spring Festival effect”, with a certain price increase expected Baijiu plate; 3) The “real estate” sector, which benefited from the marginal change of the real estate policy of “implementing policies due to the city”, focused on the central enterprises with improved market share. Theme investment focuses on “double carbon, military industry, consumption upgrading”, etc.

Guosheng Securities: weaken restless expectations over the next year, return to fundamental pricing, and continue to lead steady growth

Guosheng Securities believes that from the perspective of micro sentiment, the current round of market sentiment warming began in early November. After two months of internal and external resonance repair, the inflow intensity of northbound trading and China’s financing sentiment indicators have weakened from a high level. In the future, it may face downward pressure for a period of time. In the environment of weakening market sentiment, the main track has been significantly callback since the recent year. The steady growth sector continued the previous recovery trend, and the new and old infrastructure chain, real estate and consumption continued to lead the two cities. From the valuation trend, the recent valuation related to the new energy industry chain has dropped significantly, while the valuation of traditional core assets has risen against the trend, and the valuation of new and old core assets has been rebalanced.

Steady growth is the core beta of the cross year stage. In order to weaken the restless expectation at the beginning of 22, the core lies in the reduction of the probability that the incremental funds exceed the expectation at the beginning of next year, and the weakening of the pure logic of risk preference promotion in the previous spring agitation. However, the overall market environment in the 22-year cross-year stage is not bad. After the high-level meeting made clear the tone of stable growth, it is currently in the initial stage of comprehensive policy development. From the above resumption, the credit conditions are about to stabilize in a real sense. Referring to historical experience, under the stable growth cycle, the credit widening superposition m1-ppi scissors gap is repaired upward, and value stocks are expected to continue to lead the market for another year. Reiterating that downplaying pure restless expectations and returning to fundamental pricing logic, steady growth is the biggest beta main line in the next quarter.

Core conclusions and strategic suggestions: weaken restless expectations over the next year, return to fundamental pricing, and continue to lead steady growth. （1） The steady growth direction has been established and initial results have been achieved. The credit conditions are expected to stabilize in a real sense at the end of the year, and continue to be optimistic about value restoration in the medium term, including food and beverage, high-quality banks and developers, and power operation; （2） New and old infrastructure development direction, the first is: construction / building materials, scenery and communication; （3） Upstream cost reversal auto parts, small household appliances, and independent main line military industry.

YueKai Securities: focus on the main line of steady growth in the near future

YueKai Securities said that the monetary policy in the fourth quarter showed a more positive tone next year, emphasizing that the monetary policy is “stable” and “more active and promising”. Next year, the monetary policy is expected to be more active and promising. Under the theme of “I-oriented” monetary policy, we think there is still room for further easing the strength of future policies, Now and even the first half of next year is the best time window for monetary policy easing.

This week entered the penultimate trading week before the year. The overseas epidemic disturbance superimposed on the attack on “fake foreign capital”. The overall inflow trend of funds going north slowed down. In the absence of incremental capital admission, the market showed a pattern of stock game. With the arrival of the institutional ranking at the end of the year, the sectors with the highest growth rate this year have adjusted one after another. In particular, the lithium battery sector has made significant adjustments on Monday and Friday. At the same time, the capital flows to the low-level stagflation sector represented by consumption + infrastructure, and the A-share market deduces the ultimate high-low switching.

Looking forward to the future, under the economic background of shrinking demand and weakening expectation, boosting consumption in 2022 is expected to become an important starting point, and more industrial policy support is expected to be obtained in terms of consumption upgrading and market sinking. According to the historical situation, the profitability of the consumer sector is likely to be significantly improved in 22 years, and the performance elasticity is high under the low base effect. At the same time, the valuation side is also significantly repaired under the boost of policies and prosperity. The consumer sector has ushered in a double-click market driven by valuation performance, and the required consumption has performed before the optional consumption, Optional consumption elasticity is greater. For the growth track, the short-term sector is expected to fluctuate more under the influence of multiple factors. In the long run, the development of the industry is mainly supported by the top-level planning. The realization process of carbon neutralization has a long way to go. The logic of the long-term development of the industry remains unchanged. As an important starting point for steady growth next year, the prosperity sustainability is expected to be maintained. Pe-g is selected

<1的优质性价比板块。

民生证券： “稳增长”是方向，不能因为技术上的不确定性而低估了决心

民生证券表示，A股市场上周从风格上来看，价值占优，而此前被认为是“短期和长期都最具确定性”的新能源板块出现了明显的下跌(-6.7%)。需要注意的是海外的扰动是多方位的，全球交易型资金的融资成本与美国实际利率挂钩，因此无论“真假外资”，在美联储收紧的趋势下，上述资金大幅波动的概率都在上升。更重要的是，境内投资者对于部分确定性正在经历年初以来核心资产投资经历过的逻辑演变：从“害怕错过”变为“害怕失去”，绝对收益正在占据主导，过往的“共识”正在出现裂缝。

目前来看，兴基建、稳地产是“稳增长”的主要手段。 自“730”会议以来，政策层面就一直在传达“稳增长”的信号，并且在逐步落地并产生效果：8月起政府债券发行提速；10月起以按揭贷款为主的居民中长期贷款自同比多增；12月20日，LPR一年期利率调降，有助于稳定房地产销售，开发商端的融资呵护措施也逐步出台；12月22日发改委发布明确将进一步简化投资审核管理，为财政发力奠定基础。就市场所担忧的“稳增长”资金来源而言，地方政府的掣肘可能不如想象那么大，而中央政府由于较低的杠杆率或将成为“稳增长”的主要发力者，事实上来看，提前下达的2022年专项债额度也高于往年。实际上，市场在体会过今年三季度对大宗商品的“保供稳价”的实施力度之后，就应该意识到：不能因为无法预期最终达成目的的方式(核增产能、加大开采和行政限价)，而忽视政策决心的执行力。对于周期股的投资者而言，需求逻辑正在接替供给逻辑，从“保供稳价”到“稳增长”，周期投资者也开始站在了政策的友好面，而非对立面。

共识的裂口已经出现，市场的稳态结构在被打破，短期仍将继续调整，但是希望正在孕育。经济基本面将是机遇而不是风险，离开近1年的“顺周期”逻辑将再次回归，投资者可以开始布局：(1)信用重新企稳下的金融板块：房地产、银行以及基建与地产订单驱动的建筑业；(2)需求回升驱动传统周期的盈利重估：煤炭、有色(铜、铝)、建材、钢铁。主题推荐：乡村振兴(种业、农机、冷链和环保)。

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(brokerage China)