Looking back on the A-share market in 2021, the hydrogen energy sector is like a pastry. Especially in the second half of the year, the plate opened the accelerated rise mode, and individual stocks performed well. In the second half of the year, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) increased by 117%, and Lanpec Technologies Limited(601798) also increased by 73.6%, and Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) increased by 263%.
Why will the hydrogen energy sector mentioned in 2019 usher in a concentrated outbreak in the second half of this year? In fact, the reason is not difficult to understand. In 2021, many policies were issued to vigorously support hydrogen energy. Combined with the background of carbon neutralization, hydrogen energy is the only new energy industry that has not been vigorously pursued by funds. Looking forward to 2022, how many investment opportunities are there for hydrogen energy?
policy support and demand release bring opportunities
According to the white paper on China's hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry, the proportion of green hydrogen will increase from 3% to 15% from 2020 to 2030; In 2025, the output value of China's hydrogen energy industry will reach 1 trillion yuan, and the demand for hydrogen will be close to 60 million tons, accounting for 10% of the terminal energy system, of which the proportion of green hydrogen will further increase to 70%, and about 700 million tons of carbon dioxide will be reduced. Facing the trillion market, the relevant industrial chains bred around hydrogen energy will benefit. Favorable policies superimpose the long-term development potential of the industry. At present, the upstream hydrogen production and supply, the midstream fuel cells and core components will take the lead in benefiting, and the downstream fuel cell application end may take time to conduct.
Why will upstream and midstream industries benefit first?
On September 21, 2020, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the notice on developing the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles to promote "replacing subsidies with awards", and the demonstration period is tentatively set as 4 years. At present, the hydrogen energy vehicle market is mainly driven by policy. The policy of "replacing compensation with awards" focuses on the development of medium and heavy trucks. Upstream and midstream enterprises are the beneficiaries under the policy. Specific incentives include fuel cell assemblies and parts, as well as the cost, source and transportation of hydrogen (i.e. upstream and midstream); The reward object shall take the demonstration urban agglomeration as the unit for integral accounting, and the upper limit of reward shall not exceed 1.7 billion yuan for a single urban agglomeration.
It can be expected that, stimulated by incentives, enterprises in the upper and middle reaches of hydrogen energy, such as hydrogen refueling stations and fuel cell plants, will usher in a wave of accelerated development period, which is very similar to the development trend of lithium battery and photovoltaic two years ago.
However, the lithium battery industry is an industry with higher and higher marginal cost. In the early stage, it does not need to invest too much in infrastructure construction. The construction and investment of charging pile are much simpler than that of hydrogenation station. In the later stage, the costs related to the maintenance and recovery of infrastructure such as power grid will increase year by year with the increase of vehicle number. Hydrogen energy, on the contrary, requires large investment in the early stage, and the performance may not be reflected in the short term. However, with the increase of vehicles, the cost will be apportioned lower and lower, and the marginal cost will show a decreasing trend.
At the same time, local governments also responded positively. The draft of the action plan for accelerating the construction of fuel cell vehicle demonstration urban agglomeration in Guangdong Province (2021-2025) formulated by Guangdong Development and Reform Commission in December this year has been issued. The exposure draft proposes that by the end of the demonstration period, the goal of promoting more than 10000 fuel cell vehicles will be achieved, Guangdong will supply more than 100000 tons of hydrogen annually, about 200 hydrogen refueling stations will be built, and the terminal price of vehicle hydrogen will be reduced to less than 30 yuan / kg. In addition, the "Chengdu Chongqing hydrogen corridor" has also launched the plan to invest 1000 hydrogen fuel logistics vehicles in 2025. At present, 440 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have been put into operation in the two places, and 15 hydrogenation stations have been built. In the next two years, it is planned to invest 400 hydrogen fuel logistics vehicles in the hydrogen corridor in batches, and about 1000 hydrogen fuel logistics vehicles will be invested before 2025, with supporting construction of hydrogenation stations. The attitude of local functional departments also reflects the development certainty of the upstream and midstream of the hydrogen energy industry chain in the next two years. The future loading data and the decline rate of industrial costs make hydrogen energy no longer just a concept. Ten thousand hydrogen energy heavy trucks consume 10 tons of hydrogen every year, and ten thousand are 100000 tons. As of December 18, the data show that the average price of high-purity hydrogen in the national mainstream market is 32700 yuan per ton, plus the state subsidy of 20000 yuan per ton, ten thousand hydrogen energy heavy trucks will bring hydrogen consumption of 5.27 billion yuan. For the hydrogen refueling station with 20000 profit per ton under the subsidy, These figures are visible to the naked eye, which is only the value brought by 10000 heavy trucks to the hydrogenation station.
focus on midstream and upstream opportunities
For the above policies and plans, two A-share listed companies deserve attention in the future.
Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) the layout in the hydrogen energy industry chain involves upstream, middle and downstream, and the company is expected to become the biggest "pet" under the policy of vigorously developing hydrogen energy in the future. Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) it is mainly engaged in coking products, and a large amount of hydrogen is produced by coke oven gas. It has outstanding resource advantages and low cost. At present, after the completion of phase III construction of Huasheng Chemical coke oven gas to high purity hydrogen project, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, the production capacity of high purity hydrogen (99.9% purity) can reach 20000 standard cubic meters per hour and the annual production capacity can reach 15600 tons. In addition to the original capacity and the capacity after the completion of Meijin phase II projects in Inner Mongolia and Tangshan Iron and steel, the total capacity of Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) high-purity hydrogen will reach 187000 tons a year, which is equivalent to the annual hydrogen consumption of 620 hydrogenation stations and 46000 hydrogen energy heavy trucks with a daily hydrogenation capacity of 1000kg. For the goal of promoting more than 10000 fuel cell vehicles by local governments, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) is fully capable of load. Because Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) can produce hydrogen by itself, the company's current cost of hydrogen production from coke oven gas is RMB 11000-13000 per ton, and the selling price to end customers (including the cost of hydrogen transportation) can be controlled at RMB 30000 per ton, which is not a small price advantage from the current market price of RMB 3.27 per ton. In addition, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) is also actively promoting the construction of hydrogenation stations. At present, there are 7 completed hydrogenation stations, and 100 hydrogenation stations will be planned in the next 3-5 years.
In addition, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) is currently the only enterprise in A-Shares with a complete system of hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transportation and hydrogenation. At the midstream fuel cell end, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) also took shares in China's fuel cell stack and membrane electrode manufacturers (Hongji Chuang energy and Guohong hydrogen energy), and took the lead in realizing localization. Guohong hydrogen energy is the world's largest fuel cell stack manufacturer, with a market share of more than 70%. At the downstream end, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) also controls Feichi technology, China's largest hydrogen fuel cell vehicle enterprise.
It is worth mentioning that Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) whether Hongji chuangneng and Guohong hydrogen energy, or Feichi technology, are local enterprises in Guangdong. Guangdong is a strong province in China's hydrogen energy development, and the above enterprises will be important participants in Guangdong's fuel cell industry chain.
The Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) in the middle reaches of the industry also deserves attention. The company is a major manufacturer of heavy trucks and power assemblies in China. At present, 29 fuel cell bus lines have been opened across the country, with a running mileage of more than 8 million kilometers. At present, the hydrogen energy strategy mainly focuses on heavy trucks, which is perfectly consistent with the current business of Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) . The company also said that hydrogen fuel cells will become the core strategic business in the future, and there is a large imagination space for performance. In 2018, Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) invested US $163 million to subscribe for ballard19 9%, becoming the largest shareholder of Ballard, the leader of electric reactor. At the same time, Linde Hydraulic Industrial Park project was launched, and its main development directions include hydrogen fuel cell and solid oxide fuel cell. At present, the company's capital layout in fuel cell powertrain has been completed, including strategic investment in Ballard, the world's leading hydrogen fuel cell manufacturer of commercial vehicles, strategic investment in Ceres, the world's leading solid oxide fuel cell technology manufacturer, strategic acquisition of power electronics technology manufacturer aradex, strategic investment in fuel cell air compressor technology manufacturer Fischer, Prepare for large-scale application and commercialization in the next stage.
The development of hydrogen energy is a long-term process. Different from lithium battery and photovoltaic, the hydrogen energy industry chain has just started to invest a large number of funds, but with the improvement of large-scale industrialization, the cost will gradually decrease and the performance will be realized slowly. In the next one to two years, the profits of relevant companies in the industry will be mainly supported by the government. While optimistic about the industrial development, investors also need to be more patient.
(interface News)
