Viewpoint: according to the latest PMI data, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. in the short term, new energy fell collectively, strong stocks continued to make up for the decline, and the market style switching trend was obvious. With the opening of the monetary easing cycle, we are still optimistic about the allocation opportunities of undervalued blue chips, and bargain hunting continues to lurk across the year and in the first quarter of next year.
Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both opened high and fluctuated upward after the opening, but the green electricity plate once fell, the index plunged lower, and then both turned green. The Shanghai stock index rebounded slightly as it approached 3600 points and always maintained the green disk position in the afternoon. On the disk, household appliances led the rise, while building materials, light industry manufacturing, medicine and biology led the rise, while the media led the decline, while food and beverage, computers, beauty care and banks weakened.
On Friday, the new energy sector led by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell as a whole. Although it rebounded in the morning, its strength was average. According to the report of Shanghai Securities News: judging from the dragon and tiger list and block trading, institutions began to sell some hot stocks in the new energy sector. In addition, the actual net value of some funds with heavy positions in the new energy sector has a large deviation from the estimated net value, which also means that fund managers may have adjusted their positions. Obviously, this is a summary and Reflection on the recent decline of the new energy sector. The escape of the capital stage also shows that the market style is changing, especially after the continuous rise, “fear of heights” may reach a consensus.
When it comes to “fear of heights”, many strong stocks have fallen or stagnated at a high level recently. For example, Beijing Highlander Digital Technology Co.Ltd(300065) whose share price has recently doubled is approaching the intraday limit, while Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) whose share price has soared by more than 200% a month once fell by nearly 15%. In addition, many stocks fell by more than 10%, and most of the main board fell by the limit. In addition, there were once more than 30 stocks, down more than 9%.
Whether it is the sharp decline of new energy last week or the decline of high-level stocks in the past week, in fact, the trend of market style switching is relatively obvious, that is, with the opening of the monetary easing cycle, the overall valuation of undervalued varieties is expected to improve and make-up, while the overall favor of high-level and overvalued varieties is reduced. Of course, near the end of the year, the fund ranking and performance will fluctuate greatly. At the same time, the favor for blue chips will also become a capital trend.
Therefore, with the policy of steady growth, we continue to be optimistic about the market in the next year and the first quarter of next year. In this process, with the opening of the easy-going easing cycle, the overall recovery opportunity of undervalued blue chips deserves attention. In the short term, the market ushers in consolidation, but there is no substantive bad. Instead, consolidation is a good time to bargain hunting, and investors can still consider bargain hunting for appropriate allocation. In terms of specific opportunities, it is suggested to explore from three angles: first, the “steady growth” or phased main line from the policy perspective, and the involved sectors can track building materials, construction machinery, food and beverage and household appliances; Secondly, it can also be superimposed with varieties with high attention to funds in the north, such as financial and other value blue chips, in which it can focus on the securities sector with undervalued value and good performance; Third, science and technology and new energy are mainly varieties with relatively uncertain growth under the downward pressure of the economy.
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(Jufeng Finance)
