Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) released a research report saying that Byd Company Limited(002594) shares (01211) sold 87000 new energy vehicles in February 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 764%, outperforming the industry and highlighting the strong model cycle. With the continuous improvement of the model matrix and the continuous verification of the competitiveness of new energy vehicles, the company’s intelligence + going to sea is expected to become a new bright spot in 2022. In addition, the semiconductor strategy has been steadily promoted on February 27, 2024. The external supply of power batteries is accelerated, the shipment of energy storage batteries is improved, and the value of the supply chain is highlighted.
event: on March 3, 2022, the company released the automobile sales express in February 2022. In February 2022, the company sold 91000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 195%; Among them, there were 87000 new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 764% and a month on month increase of – 6%; 2795 fuel vehicles.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) main points are as follows:
22m2 new energy passenger vehicles sold 87000 units (- 6% MoM), significantly leading the industry
In February, the company sold 91000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 195% and a month on month increase of – 5%, including 87000 new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 764% and a month on month increase of – 6%. By category, 87000 new energy passenger vehicles were sold in February 2022, with a year-on-year increase of + 764% and a month on month decrease of – 6%, significantly outperforming the industry with a month on month decrease of – 30%. Among them, there were 43000 pure electric vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 451%. The performance of key models such as Han, Tang and dolphin was outstanding, and the new model yuan plus doubled month on month and continued to increase in volume; 44000 plug-in hybrid vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 1836%. The sales proportion of high-priced models such as song plusdm-i and Tang DM-I increased. In February, 810 new energy commercial vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of + 95%. In terms of fuel vehicles, 2795 vehicles were sold in February. In February, the installed capacity of power battery and energy storage battery was 4.6gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 241%; From January to February, the cumulative installed capacity was 9.4gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 202%.
model cycle continues to rise, and electrification technology leads the industry
The company’s flagship car “Han” was launched in July 2020. In February 2022, “Han” sold about 9084 vehicles, and the monthly sales continued to be hot. Among them, the sales volume of Han EV is about 86.84 million and that of Han DM is about 400. The hot sales of medium and high-end “Han” terminals verify the competitiveness of electric products, drive the improvement of the company’s brand strength and lead the company’s new round of model cycle. Qin plus, song plus and Tang, which are equipped with the new fourth generation plug-in hybrid platform DM-I, were officially launched in March and April 2021 respectively. The sales volume in February 2022 was about 14000, 19000 and 10000 respectively. The total chain comparison of DM-I series was improved and the order structure was optimized.
2021h1 company released e-platform 3.0 at Shanghai auto show. Based on this platform, it built pure electric vehicles “dolphin” and Yuan plusev, which were released in August and November 2021 respectively. Dolphin priced 96800124800, with outstanding price and performance advantages. In February 2022, it sold 8565 vehicles and gradually replaced fuel vehicles with the same price. Yuan plus continued to sell in large quantities, with more than 4000 vehicles sold in February.
In March 2020, the company released the “blade battery” technology, leading the industry with high energy density, low cost and high safety, and carrying the flagship model “Han”, the production capacity climbed smoothly during the year. At the same time, since 2020, the power battery continues to break through the external supply. At present, the Chinese market has been equipped with car enterprises such as Chang’an, Xiaokang, BAIC and FAW Hongqi. Overseas customers have been designated by Ford and are expected to supply global well-known car enterprises such as Toyota and Mercedes Benz.
Dynasty + ocean dual networks go hand in hand, and the matrix of medium and high-end models continues to improve. In 2022, smart + going to sea is expected to exceed expectations
In November 2021, Guangzhou auto show company announced to upgrade the original E-Net to ocean net, establish a new channel network and marketing model, and plan two series: “marine life” series models are all built by e-platform 3.0. At present, it has launched the first model “dolphin”, and the second model of “marine animal” series ocean-x is planned to appear in 2022; The “warship” series is exclusively equipped with DM-I super hybrid system, including cars, SUVs, MPVS and other models.
In December 2021, the company announced a capital increase of 1 billion yuan for Tengshi brand. On the same day, Daimler announced that it planned to transfer 40% equity to the company. The bank expects that the company will hold 90% equity of Tengshi brand by the middle of 2022. So far, Dynasty + ocean has covered 10 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 0000 mainstream markets, Tengshi brand has covered 3 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 00000 medium and high-end vehicle markets, and independent new high-end brands have covered more than 500000 high-end vehicle markets, realizing full coverage of model level, powertrain and price belt, further expanding the target market and promoting the company’s vehicle cycle. After the matrix layout of medium and high-end models is improved, the company is expected to start intelligent.
The bank expects that the intelligent configuration of ocean-x, the third model of e-platform 3.0, is expected to exceed expectations, the intelligent technical capability of e-platform 3.0 will gradually appear, and the intelligent value of the company is expected to be revalued. On the other hand, the competitiveness of the company’s new energy vehicles has been continuously verified in the Chinese market. Compared with overseas vehicle enterprises, the company has advantages, complete conditions for going to sea and the time is ripe. Since the second half of 2021, high-end models Han and Tang have been unveiled and sold in many overseas countries and regions. The bank believes that 2022 will become the “first year” for the company to go to sea, opening medium and long-term growth space for the company.
fixed growth helps to expand production capacity and highlights the neutral value of supply chain
On November 1, 2021, the company announced the placement of 50 million H shares, the issuance of 1.75% of the total share capital, and the net fund-raising of HK $13.8 billion (about RMB 11.4 billion). The fund-raising plan is to invest in electric and intelligent direction, which will help further improve the company’s R & D capacity and maintain the leading position in the industry. Since the end of 2020, new energy vehicle industry chain companies represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) have started a new round of fund-raising and production expansion activities. In terms of downstream layout, Byd Company Limited(002594) has invested and set up factories in Jinan, Zhengzhou, Wuwei, Bengbu, Changchun and other places to produce new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and related parts. In terms of upstream layout, the company announced that it would increase Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) , and planned to establish a joint venture with Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) , Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) to develop phosphate rock and lithium iron phosphate projects and actively locate lithium and phosphorus resources.
As a leader in electrification technology, in addition to the electric vehicle business, the bank believes that the company’s subsequent greater investment value is as a neutral “one-stop solution provider for new energy vehicles”, including lithium battery (blade battery technology, etc.), semiconductor (IGBT), three in one motor / electronic control technology, etc. At present, the company’s electric vehicle and battery business is booming, including:
1) electric vehicles: with the release of DM-I sales, the word of mouth continues to ferment, superimposed with ocean + Dynasty dual network drive, the bank expects the company’s new sales of electric passenger vehicles to be 1.27 million (+ 112% YoY) in 2022, superimposed with 200000 orders, and the annual delivery is expected to reach 1.5 million. With the launch of new models and high-end brands of pure electric E platform 3.0, the upward cycle of the company’s models is expected to continue.
2) battery: blade battery global matching is accelerated, the value of high-quality battery suppliers is prominent under the expectation of neutrality, and the valuation of benchmark Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is expected to be improved.
investment suggestion: considering that the demand for consumer electronics will be affected by the lack of core in 2021, Byd Company Limited(002594) electronic profit is under pressure, maintaining the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company of 4.5 billion yuan in 2021; Considering the reshaping of the company’s model matrix, the cycle of electric vehicle models continues to rise, and the shipment of power battery external supply and energy storage battery accelerates, so as to maintain the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 23 at 9 / 15.2 billion yuan.
risk factors: new energy vehicle sales are lower than expected Byd Company Limited(002594) dm-i new platform model sales are lower than expected; Technical route change; New energy vehicle policy fluctuations.
