Here comes the government work report.
As an important wind vane of economic development and policy direction, what signals has the government work report revealed this year?
Focus! Look at the interpretation!
gdp growth of about 5.5%
According to the government work report, China’s GDP grew by about 5.5%; More than 11 million new jobs were created in cities and towns, and the urban survey unemployment rate was controlled within 5.5% throughout the year; Consumer prices rose by about 3%; The growth of residents’ income basically kept pace with economic growth.
interpretation
Wang Jun, chief economist of Zhongyuan bank
From the perspective of the determination of the expected goal of economic growth, the overall tone is still positive and enterprising. It is an economic growth goal that is practical, feasible, stable expectations and boost confidence.
5.5% is also a task that needs efforts to be completed. It is a goal that needs the joint efforts and coordination of various macroeconomic policies. Such a growth goal will help better connect and complete the economic development goals of the 14th five year plan and 2035. At the same time, it is also a goal to help resist internal and external uncertainty and complex risks.
2.5 trillion yuan! Tax reduction and fee reduction efforts exceed market expectations
The government work report proposes to implement a new combined tax support policy. Adhere to the combination of phased measures and institutional arrangements, and carry out tax reduction and tax rebate at the same time.
The government work report also puts forward that the annual tax rebate and tax reduction is expected to be about 2.5 trillion yuan, of which the tax rebate left is about 1.5 trillion yuan, and all the tax rebate funds go directly to enterprises.
interpretation
Zhang Yiqun, vice chairman of China budget performance Committee
Compared with the previous year, the intensity of tax reduction and fee reduction this year has increased unabated, significantly exceeding market expectations. It is mainly affected by the international and China’s economic situation. The role of policies in promoting economic stability will be comprehensively strengthened with the intensity of tax reduction and fee reduction.
First, direct tax cuts will focus on manufacturing and small and micro enterprises, so that the manufacturing industry can speed up the improvement of quality and efficiency, so that small and micro enterprises can live with dignity. In particular, we will increase tax cuts and fee reductions for science and technology-based small, medium and micro enterprises, expand the scope and proportion of R & D investment plus deduction, and activate the vitality and innovation ability of enterprises in the industry;
The second is to increase the scale, speed up and direct the tax rebate to enterprises, so as to minimize the tax occupation and revitalize the funds of enterprises;
Third, promote tax reduction in accordance with the principle of paying equal attention to direct tax and indirect tax, constantly optimize the structural benefits of tax reduction, and provide policy and institutional guarantee for the full and effective implementation of tax reduction policies;
Fourth, focus on tax reduction, drive the comprehensive promotion of fee reduction policies, further reduce the costs of rent, finance and communication, stabilize commodity prices, and create a more relaxed development environment for the market.
deficit ratio lowered to about 2.8%
According to the government work report, the deficit ratio is planned to be about 2.8% this year, down from last year, which is conducive to enhancing fiscal sustainability.
interpretation
Zhang Yiqun, vice chairman of China budget performance Committee
This year, the state has set the fiscal deficit rate at 2.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from last year, with a large decline, which also exceeded market expectations.
On the one hand, it shows that China’s fiscal deficit ratio has returned to the warning line after the epidemic situation has stabilized and the anti epidemic ability has been strengthened, the safety and quality of financial operation have been significantly improved, and the space and maneuver ability of fiscal policy have been more sufficient.
On the other hand, it reflects that the quality of China’s economic growth is changing with the continuous large-scale tax reduction and fee reduction policies. Inclusive and targeted tax reduction and fee reduction provide enterprises with a steady stream of financial support and development support, further stimulate the toughness, activity and motivation of China’s economy, and better verify the effectiveness of fiscal policy.
fully implement the stock issuance registration system and promote the steady and healthy development of the capital market
The government work report proposes to fully implement the stock issuance registration system and promote the steady and healthy development of the capital market.
interpretation
Xiao Gang, member of the CPPCC National Committee and former chairman of the CSRC
The essence of the registration system reform is to deal with the relationship between the government and the market, give the right of choice to the market, reduce unnecessary administrative regulation, and strengthen market constraints and legal constraints, so as to stimulate market vitality and improve market functions. The way to realize the reform of the registration system is to build an issuance and listing system with information disclosure as the core, so that all parties involved in the market can return to their responsibilities.
At present, the key and difficult point of implementing the comprehensive registration system lies in the reform of the main board. When implementing the registration system on the main board, we should adhere to the principle of keeping the word at the head and seeking progress in stability. We should not only reflect the requirements of the registration system, but also meet the characteristics of the main board. The same is the reform of the main board. The relevant systems of Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges are also different. Further research is needed when formulating the reform plan to ensure the smooth implementation of the reform. In addition, in the process of comprehensively implementing the reform of the registration system, we should further optimize the mechanism. The exchange focuses on strengthening the audit responsibility, while the CSRC focuses on overall coordination, supervision and management, and constantly improve the quality and efficiency of audit and registration.
Liu Feng, chief economist of Galaxy Securities
“Stability” is one of the key words in this year’s government work report. While steadily promoting the reform of the whole market registration system in the capital market this year, we should further improve the construction of multi-level capital market and support small and medium-sized enterprises and “specialized, special and new” enterprises to enter the capital market.
Small, medium-sized and micro enterprises are an important part of China’s real economy and a key force for the steady and healthy development of the capital market. Standing at a new starting point, the capital market still needs to continue to promote reform, help the transformation and upgrading of the real economy, promote the continuous improvement of various systems, further promote the high-quality development of multi-level capital market, give further play to the enthusiasm of private investment and add new vitality to the macro-economy.
Chen Li, chief economist and director of Research Institute of Chuancai securities
The steady implementation of the reform of the comprehensive registration system will help many enterprises to be more efficient in listing and financing, build and improve the multi-level capital market system, and promote the steady and healthy development of the capital market.
Last year’s macroeconomic data showed that the internal liquidity of Chinese Enterprises above Designated Size continued to improve and their profitability gradually rebounded; In contrast, the operation pressure of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises is greater, and the diversified capital market will help to promote the further guarantee of the financing environment of such enterprises.
The trading places in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen will form characteristic positioning and gradually form a market pattern of moderate competition with different emphases and complementarities, which will stimulate the market potential and increase the market vitality.
Zhu Haibin, assistant general manager of Anxin Securities Research Center and chief analyst of new third board
The opening and operation of the Beijing stock exchange marks the further improvement of China’s multi-level capital market construction. In the future, with its misplaced development orientation, Beijiao hopes to form a new pattern with Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges and regional equity markets, promote a virtuous cycle of financial, scientific and technological and industrial development, and promote the sustainable and healthy development of China’s capital market.
strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy and expand the scale of new loans
The government work report proposes to strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy. Give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of aggregate and structure, and provide stronger support for the real economy. Expand the scale of new loans, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically match the nominal economic growth, and keep the macro leverage basically stable.
interpretation
Zeng Gang, deputy director of national finance and development laboratory
There is room for further expansion of monetary policy support for “steady growth”. The pressure of steady growth this year objectively exists: Although the economic growth target of “5.5%” is not high compared with the past, the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year was 4%, which is a gap from 5.5%. Moreover, there is downward pressure on the economy, and the pressure in the real estate field has not been completely reversed.
Against this background, the task of economic growth this year is relatively arduous. At the policy level, we should ensure sufficient space. The monetary policy of steady growth in the next step may also have room for reducing reserve requirements and interest rates. At the same time, we should strengthen credit supply and actively support the recovery of demand in the real economy.
In addition to the total amount, it is more important to use structural policy tools. The “cross cycle policy” requires the formation of a long-term and new growth momentum pattern while stabilizing growth. Therefore, the structure of capital investment is very important.
Monetary policy should guide the allocation of resources. While the total scale of credit investment increases, it should structurally support the country’s medium and long-term growth and weak links. Structural monetary policy should guide the focus of credit capital investment, including: new infrastructure construction, “specialized and special” enterprises, green and low-carbon development, rural revitalization, inclusive finance, and people’s livelihood.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) co chief economist Mingming
The deployment of the government’s work this year has given a clear signal of “steady growth” in terms of volume and price. From the perspective of “quantity”, it is proposed to expand the scale of new loans and put forward structural preferential policies, such as making good use of inclusive small and micro loan support tools and increasing small re loans for supporting agriculture. From the perspective of “price”, on the one hand, it is proposed to reduce the actual loan interest rate, on the other hand, it is proposed to reduce the comprehensive financing cost of the majority of market subjects.
avoid industrial loan restriction, loan withdrawal and loan interruption
The government work report proposes to guide financial institutions to accurately grasp credit policies, continue to provide financing support to industrial enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic, and avoid industrial loan restriction, loan withdrawal and loan interruption. We will promote financial institutions to reduce real loan interest rates and charges, so that the majority of market participants can personally feel the improvement of financing convenience and the real decline of comprehensive financing costs.
interpretation
China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) financial market department macro researcher Zhou Maohua
The problem of difficult and expensive financing for enterprises has always been a worldwide problem. China has taken many measures to alleviate the problem of enterprise financing and achieved remarkable results. This year’s emphasis on “avoiding industrial loan restriction, loan withdrawal and loan interruption” is mainly because the impact of the global epidemic and the economic complexity exceed expectations, and some industries are affected for a longer time. China’s financial institutions should maintain the rescue efforts for enterprises in temporary difficulties, avoid the expansion of troubled enterprises, and then increase the adverse pressure on financial institutions.
Lou Feipeng, researcher of Postal Savings Bank of China
From “alleviating the difficulty and high cost of financing” to “making the majority of market subjects feel the improvement of financing convenience and the real decline of comprehensive financing cost”, the new expression is more direct and accurate, and the policy is stronger. To reduce the financing cost, we need not only to reduce the interest rate, but also to reduce all kinds of expenses.
Structural adjustments need to be made in credit supply. For industries seriously affected by the epidemic, high-quality market players should be selected to strengthen credit support. We should not only actively develop the first loan households, but also do a good job in supporting the renewal of loans to existing customers in combination with the study and judgment of the development prospects of market subjects.
prevent and resolve major risks and establish financial stability guarantee fund
The government work report proposes to prevent and resolve major risks. We will continue to do a good job in dealing with risks in the economic and financial fields in accordance with the basic principles of stabilizing the overall situation, overall coordination, classified policy implementation and accurate bomb dismantlement. We will strengthen risk early warning, prevention and control mechanisms and capacity-building, establish a financial stability guarantee fund, use market-oriented and legalized methods to resolve potential risks, and firmly hold the bottom line of no systemic risk.
interpretation
senior researcher of national finance and development laboratory and deputy director of insurance and Social Security Research Office of Institute of finance, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
There is a progressive relationship between the four requirements of “stabilizing the overall situation, overall coordination, classified policy implementation and accurate bomb dismantlement” put forward in the government work report, and different emphasis should be placed on dealing with different types of economic and financial risks. At the same time, the prevention and control of financial risks depends on pre command, early operation and management expectation. The impact of the introduction of financial policies and measures on economic subjects, economic activities and economic cycle should be analyzed to avoid excessive fluctuations in the short term.
Zhu Junsheng, research director of China Insurance and Pension Research Center, Wudaokou School of finance, Tsinghua University
At present, China has established a deposit guarantee system for the deposit insurance industry and other financial institutions. These institutional arrangements help prevent and resolve financial risks, promote the long-term sustainable development of the industry and protect the rights and interests of consumers. At present, the impact of epidemic prevention and control on economy and finance is constantly emerging. Different financial risks are intertwined and superimposed on changes in the international environment. There is great pressure to prevent financial risks. We need to uphold systematic thinking to prevent and control risks. The establishment of financial stability guarantee fund is conducive to resolving risks and preventing systemic risks.
Lou Feipeng, researcher of Postal Savings Bank of China
In the financial field, risks such as high-risk shadow banking risk, high-risk financial institution risk and banking asset quality management risk still exist. While compacting the responsibilities of all parties, the establishment of financial stability guarantee fund will help to enhance the ability to prevent and resolve financial risks and firmly hold the bottom line of no systemic financial risks.
actively expand effective investment, focusing on infrastructure
The government work report proposes to actively expand effective investment.
Focusing on the major national strategic deployment and the 14th five year plan, we will moderately advance infrastructure investment.
interpretation
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) Institute policy team leader and chief analyst Yang Chang
The advantage of moderately developing infrastructure ahead of time lies not only in supporting the economy in the short term and playing a supporting role, but also in three aspects: it is conducive to the reconstruction of industrial chain and value chain; Conducive to meeting structural needs; It is conducive to meeting the needs of people’s livelihood.
In the past, the orientation of infrastructure construction focused more on economic effects. With the change of China’s main economic and social contradictions, the people-centered policy orientation requires increasing investment in the field of social and people’s livelihood and accelerating the construction of infrastructure related to medical treatment, education and social security.
meeting the reasonable needs of buyers is an important feature of real estate regulation this year
The government work report proposes to adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, explore new development models, adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of indemnificatory housing, support the commercial housing market, better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, Implement policies to promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
interpretation
Yan Yuejin, research director of think tank center of E-House Research Institute
Combined with the recent policies, the reasonable housing needs of property buyers will be better met, and the support for the commercial housing market will help to ensure the demand for rigid demand and improved house purchase. Previously, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the people’s Bank of China issued the notice on strengthening the financial services of new citizens, which mentioned the orientation of optimizing housing financial services and meeting the housing needs of new citizens. This also shows that there will be an all-round guarantee for such reasonable housing demand, which is an important feature of this year’s real estate market regulation.
continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles
The government work report proposes to promote the sustained recovery of consumption. We will increase residents’ income through multiple channels, improve the income distribution system and enhance consumption capacity.
The government work report also proposed to continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles and encourage local governments to carry out green smart appliances to the countryside and trade in the old for the new.
interpretation
Chen Lifen, researcher, Institute of market economy, development research center of the State Council
The measures to promote the sustained recovery of consumption in the government work report reflect that under the requirements of high-quality economic development, expanding consumption is not only the expansion of quantity, but also the upgrading of quality; We should not only steadily restore consumption, but also effectively expand consumption. We should grasp the fundamental factors affecting consumption capacity, improve the income distribution system, and lay a solid foundation for continuously expanding consumption. Pay attention to the combination of industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading, and support green and low-carbon consumption. Promote consumption and improve people’s livelihood, and effectively meet the needs of social services such as elderly care and childcare.
increase the proportion of additional deduction of scientific and technological small and medium-sized enterprises to 100%
The government work report proposes to strengthen the implementation of the policy of adding and deducting R & D expenses, increase the proportion of adding and deducting scientific and technological small and medium-sized enterprises from 75% to 100%, implement tax incentives for enterprises to invest in basic research, and improve policies such as accelerated depreciation of equipment and instruments and income tax incentives for high-tech enterprises.
interpretation
Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of Economic Research Department of China Center for international economic exchanges
Consolidating and strengthening the foundation of the real economy means that market players should practice their internal skills and continuously improve their core competitiveness. Relevant departments will also strengthen the infrastructure capacity support of enterprise R & D and innovation. It is expected that this year, China will improve the incentive mechanism for enterprise R & D and innovation, including strengthening the protection and operation of intellectual property rights, encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation activities, strengthening the implementation of the policy of adding and deducting R & D expenses, implementing preferential tax policies for enterprise R & D investment, and providing large-scale financial support for enterprise innovation.
