The contradiction of lithium battery industry chain has been intensified again. Recently, traders' hoarding has led to a shortage of lithium, the high price of lithium has been rejected by the downstream, and battery factories have reduced production and cut orders, which have become the focus of the lithium battery circle. The financial Associated Press learned from multiple interviews that the feedback information from various factories is not unified, and dissent is full of lithium battery industry chain.
It is worth noting that lithium salt has become a "hot potato" for traders, and most traders choose to sell back-to-back. On this premise, the cathode material factory has reported that the capacity utilization rate of new capacity has been insufficient due to the shortage of lithium salt. Some insiders believe that "in the case of low inventory in mines, lithium salt plants and cathode plants, the current lithium price is the result of the mapping of actual supply and demand." Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) denied the rumors of production reduction.
lack of lithium and high price point to traders
According to the data released by Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) , on March 4, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate increased by 5500 yuan / ton to 500000 yuan / ton. Xinlune information believes that the lithium carbonate price of nearly 500000 yuan / ton has squeezed the confidence of three or four echelon battery factories to take goods. From the perspective of cost accounting, it has reached the limit value of the enterprise. Some iron lithium manufacturers have begun to reduce taking goods and output.
Industry chain person a told the financial associated press that the sharp rise in raw material prices has hurt the whole industry, including battery factories and car enterprises. Some market-oriented car enterprises may not be so full in the production of pure electric vehicles. The main reason is that "(lithium salt) prices have risen so severely, and they (downstream) already have opinions."
The target is not lithium salt traders, but lithium salt traders. Industry chain person C believes that the price of lithium salt is high, but the cathode material factory can still get its due share. Lithium salt prices rose one after another, which was pointed by the industry to traders to hoard goods and bid up prices, while lithium salt factories followed the market according to the market price.
The accusation of the industrial chain is justifiable. B, an expert who has been tracking lithium salt for a long time, said that in the process of tracing the rise of lithium price from 100000 to 500000 in the past six months, traders did push up the upward trend of lithium salt price twice.
According to its further analysis, the first time was from August to the end of September (2021). Qinghai traders were mainly engaged in warehouse building. Lithium salt prices rose rapidly within two months. After reaching the peak of 180000 in the previous cycle, traders continued to ship goods. The second time: (2021) mid December - (2022) at the end of January, Shenzhen GGII conference and Chengdu lithium conference ignited the enthusiasm of the industry, superimposed the Spring Festival shopping enthusiasm of cathode material factory, traders entered the site for the second time to store goods, and shipped again before the year.
However, "at present, traders' inventories are scarce, and the current price is the result of the mapping of actual supply and demand. After the year, lithium prices continued to rise, which actually exceeded the expectations of some salespeople in the industry. We learned from the side that traders' inventories are scarce, 'hot potato' and 'a truck of goods is up to 1300W, affecting cash flow and unwilling to take' are the feedback of the current industry." The above lithium salt experts said.
Qu Yinfei, a lithium analyst of Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) new energy business unit, said that due to the unit price problem, traders bear great risks due to accumulated reserves, and most traders choose to sell back-to-back; At present, the main purchasing force in the market is lithium iron phosphate plant, and the mood of taking goods is still positive; Individual enterprises do conflict with the current market price, but they have little impact on the market.
In terms of lithium salt production, according to the statistics of Qu Yinfei's database, the output of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in the first quarter is expected to be 58700 tons and 45500 tons respectively; In 2021, the output of Q4 lithium carbonate was 66000 tons and the output of lithium hydroxide was 52600 tons. According to Qu Yinfei's prediction, the output of the two main lithium salt varieties decreased month on month.
The above lithium salt expert B believes that the current lithium price is the result of the mapping of actual supply and demand under the condition that the inventory of mines, lithium salt plants and cathode plants is generally low.
rejection suppresses price transmission
Industry chain person C told the financial associated press that there has been a consensus among battery manufacturers that lithium salt prices cannot continue to rise at a high level even at the expense of installed capacity. If the positive material factory receives the goods, the downstream battery factory refuses to accept the conduction. The core reason is that the high price of lithium salt leads to "no money to make" in the lithium battery industry chain.
The financial Associated Press reporter contacted the two battery factories with the top 10 installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery, which said that there was no rejection. Outsiders from a battery factory disdained to respond to this. Expert B also said, "we contacted several lithium salt / cathode material factories for sales / procurement for verification, and there was no so-called non receipt of orders of more than XX million."
Some insiders d believe that the current lithium battery industry chain is full of games, and it is not ruled out to release a "smoke bomb" to gain the initiative. Industry chain person a said, "the downstream has taken action on this", but the specific means did not make it clear to reporters Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . SZ), made suggestions at the two sessions and will submit proposals involving the guarantee of supply and stable price of lithium resources.
Industry chain analyst C said that if the head battery manufacturers reach a consensus and refuse to accept the goods at a high level, in fact, the price of lithium salt will fall due to the decline in demand, which will suppress the price of lithium salt to a certain extent. If a positive material factory privately receives the goods and raises the price, the battery factory refuses to accept the conduction.
"Unless the battery factory is crazy," said e, an expert who tracks the lithium battery industry chain The core logic of the opposition that thinks it is impossible is that there are customer relationships in the industrial chain, especially between battery manufacturers and car enterprises. If the supply is unstable, car enterprises will lose confidence in it. If car enterprises cooperate, it is equivalent to giving up their share.
In addition, some insiders believe that the high price of lithium salt is even a good thing compared with large lithium power plants, which can not only "crush" competitors with insufficient strength and improve market share; With the release of lithium salt supply, lithium prices fall and normal profits can be earned.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) deny rumors of production reduction
Recently, there are market rumors that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers have lowered their production scheduling plans in March. Some media confirmed to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) that the news was untrue. According to the information learned by F, an insider in the industry, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will increase production in March. Behind this news, it is undoubtedly derived from the rejection of high priced lithium salts.
Lithium salt expert B said that the head battery factory cut iron lithium orders in March, and the actual demand for lithium salt did not decrease. Behind the iron lithium order cut by the head battery factory in March, another head battery factory is willing to sweep away the excess iron lithium cathode. Second / third tier iron lithium enterprises with abundant cash flow are also eyeing lithium salt orders.
But in fact, the financial Associated Press reporter learned from many sources that the cathode material factory failed to make full use of its capacity utilization due to the shortage of lithium salt and production capacity. If the main base of a lithium iron plant is short of lithium during the new year, only half of the newly invested capacity will be released.
Industry chain person a said that the raw material bottleneck faced by the cathode material factory this year may be a pain point. "We feel that in addition to the relatively tense first quarter, it will be affected to some extent, and we feel good later." The company will maintain long-term cooperation with many lithium plants.
According to the incomplete statistics of energy storage headlines, from the production capacity of the six main materials of lithium battery, the scale of cathode material expansion projects is huge, the cumulative production capacity of 91 projects exceeds 12.397 million tons, and the cumulative investment is 227708 billion yuan.
Qu Yinfei said that with the survival of the fittest, there are signs of reshuffle in the market. Under the trend of crazy growth of market capacity, non dominant cathode material enterprises will face liquidation, but the current market is not obvious.
