Key investment points
The “3 + 2” national hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demonstration pattern has been officially formed. The industrialization inflection point of China’s hydrogen fuel cell vehicle field has appeared, and the industry is about to usher in large-scale cost reduction. 1) The full implementation of the national subsidy policy for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has laid a foundation for the large-scale promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the future; 2) At present, the localization progress of key components of hydrogen fuel cell in China has exceeded expectations, and has preliminarily mastered the key technologies of core components such as fuel cell engine, stack, membrane electrode and proton exchange membrane, which has the conditions for large-scale industrialization from the supply side; 3) Driven by the “double carbon” goal, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles with “zero carbon” attribute have high market demand, which is an important starting point for realizing the “double carbon” goal in many fields.
In the past three months, hydrogen energy policies have been intensively introduced, and hydrogen energy has become an important tool for deep carbon reduction in many fields under the background of “double carbon”. The policies of the whole industrial chain of hydrogen energy are intensively released, especially in the fields of hydrogen production from electrolytic water and hydrogen metallurgy. The application field of hydrogen energy starts from transportation and has gradually extended to energy storage, steel, industry, construction and other fields. Hydrogen energy will become an important part of China’s energy system. Documents have been issued throughout the country to take hydrogen energy as an important starting point for the implementation of major decisions and deployment of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, promote the application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles for long-distance heavy-duty vehicles, promote the development of the whole chain of hydrogen energy production, storage and transmission, and carry out demonstration projects such as organic liquid hydrogen storage, solid hydrogen storage, liquid hydrogen and hydrogen mixing in natural gas pipelines.
The top-level design of hydrogen energy is under planning, and the “energy” attribute of hydrogen is constantly clarified. On February 24, in its reply to the proposal of the CPPCC deputies, the National Energy Administration pointed out that the next step would be to strengthen the research on energy storage, hydrogen energy and other technologies, study and prepare the development plan of hydrogen energy industry together with relevant departments, and carry out the demonstration of hydrogen production from renewable energy. At present, the role and orientation of hydrogen energy in China’s future energy system have been gradually determined. The introduction of the top-level design of hydrogen energy in the future will further clarify the development route of the whole hydrogen energy industry chain in China, and the development of hydrogen energy industry has officially entered the fast lane.
Investment suggestion: we think there are two links worthy of attention. The first is hydrogen fuel cell vehicle and key parts such as membrane electrode, stack and engine system, which account for a high value. The second is hydrogen storage and transportation. These links are the key to reducing the cost of the subsequent industrial chain. 1) With the help of large-scale promotion in the early stage of the industry, fuel cell parts will reduce the cost of scale and complete the early stage technical iteration, which will build a strong “moat” in the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) ; 2) Hydrogen storage and transportation is a key link in all hydrogen energy application fields, including transportation, hydrogen energy storage and hydrogen metallurgy. The current industrial pain point with high cost in hydrogen storage and transportation contains major industrial development opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) .
Risk tips: the breakthrough of core technology is less than expected, the cost reduction is less than expected, the policy support and financial subsidies are less than expected, and the supporting facilities of hydrogenation infrastructure are less than expected.
