Introduction to this report:
The time for domestic substitution of high-end crystal oscillator is ripe. 5g promotes the volume and price of high fundamental frequency crystal oscillator, and new energy promotes the vehicle specification crystal oscillator to open the second growth curve, which will fully benefit the domestic crystal oscillator manufacturers.
Summary:
The domestic substitution demand for high-end crystal oscillator is about to break out, and domestic manufacturers will expand production for the second time to undertake industrial transfer. In recent years, as the profitability of Japanese crystal oscillator manufacturers has declined and their willingness to expand production has weakened, Japanese manufacturers have gradually transferred the crystal oscillator industry outward, and domestic manufacturers have undertaken the transfer of medium and low-end and high-end industries respectively through two production expansion. 1) First production expansion: around 2011, the capacity was expanded for the first time through high-level capital expenditure, and the domestic substitution of medium and low-end crystal oscillators was initially realized. 2) Second production expansion: facing the increasing replacement demand of high-end crystal oscillator, domestic manufacturers broke through the three barriers of lithography process, technical certification and raw material procurement, increased capital expenditure for the second time in 2020, realized the capacity expansion plan focusing on high-end crystal oscillator, undertook the industrial transfer of high-end crystal oscillator in Japan, and made every effort to meet the upcoming explosion of domestic replacement demand of high-end crystal oscillator.
5g construction continued to speed up and promoted the volume and price of high fundamental frequency crystal oscillator. 5g construction has higher requirements on crystal oscillator frequency, which promotes the large-scale demand for high fundamental frequency above 50MHz, which enables domestic manufacturers to obtain Qualcomm certification. Downstream domestic mobile phone manufacturers have strong willingness to purchase for the sake of supply chain security; The unit price of high-frequency crystal oscillator is up to twice that of ordinary crystal oscillator, and a higher unit price will bring higher value. In 2020, the penetration rate of 5g mobile phones in global mobile phone shipments was 19.74%. The penetration rate of 5g mobile phones in Chinese mobile phone shipments has rapidly increased from 55.07% in 2020 to 77.55% in 2021. The penetration rate is ahead of the world, and 5g application space is huge.
The new energy industry is booming, and the car gauge Jingzhen has opened the second growth curve. The demand for single crystal oscillator of new energy electric vehicles is about 100150, which is significantly higher than that of 60-100 traditional vehicles; At the same time, due to the complex driving environment, the vehicle gauge crystal oscillator has higher requirements for reliability, more complex design and production process of the base, relatively higher product unit price and significantly higher gross profit margin than ordinary crystal oscillator. In 2021, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles was 6.75 million, a year-on-year increase of 108%, and the penetration rate reached 8.3%, an increase of 4.1 PCT over 2020; In the middle of 2021, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached 3.396 million, a year-on-year increase of 155%, the penetration rate reached 13.3%, an increase of 7.8 PCT, higher than the global average level, and the growth power of new energy industry is full.
Benefit target: under the general trend of domestic substitution of high-end crystal oscillator, domestic crystal oscillator manufacturers who have broken through the certification barrier of high fundamental frequency crystal oscillator and have sufficient mass production capacity and actively contribute to the field of vehicle specification crystal oscillator will give priority to benefit. The beneficiaries are Guangdong Faith Long Crystal Technology Co.Ltd(300460) ( Guangdong Faith Long Crystal Technology Co.Ltd(300460) . SZ) with obvious advantages of MHz products and strong profitability, and Tkd Science And Technology Co.Ltd(603738) ( Tkd Science And Technology Co.Ltd(603738) . SH) with leading kHz products and large scale in China.
Risk tip: the downstream market demand of quartz crystal oscillator is less than expected; The domestic substitution process is less than expected
