Core view
International crude oil prices rose sharply this week. The factors driving the rise in oil prices are: first, the actual increase in OPEC + production is less than the planned increase, the tight supply side has not been alleviated, and the US crude oil inventory has decreased continuously; Second, the sudden geopolitical risks of Russia and Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions of western countries have aroused the concern of the market about the interruption of supply. The volume of Russian crude oil exports accounts for 5% – 7% of the global supply, which has promoted the sharp rise of international crude oil prices in the past two weeks. Biodiesel is the most beneficial product in the context of the continuous sharp rise in international crude oil prices. Due to the carbon reduction in Europe and other countries around the world, the demand for products is strong in recent years. At the same time, China’s biodiesel with waste oil as raw material is more supported by relevant policies in Europe, and it is expected to replace biodiesel with palm oil and soybean oil in the European market in the future, The market space is huge. We are optimistic about the continuous expansion of production capacity and the profit expansion trend of Chinese biodiesel enterprises in the future.
Despite the recent signing of the potassium fertilizer contract, although the signing price is the highest $590 / ton in recent years, the negotiated price of potassium fertilizer is still in a global historical depression. Considering the tight supply and demand of global potassium fertilizer and geopolitical factors, we are still optimistic about the upward trend of potassium fertilizer price. Since the end of last year, with the production of multiple polysilicon units, the demand for trichlorosilane has been greatly boosted. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the price of trichlorosilane has increased significantly, the price of industrial grade products has increased by 3000 yuan to 17500 yuan / ton, and the price of photovoltaic grade products has increased by 6500 yuan to 25000 yuan / ton. According to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, the price of trichlorosilane has increased by 2000 yuan to 20000 yuan / ton. We are optimistic about the high prospect of trichlorosilane industry under the continuous investment of polysilicon production capacity in the future. At the same time, we are optimistic about the low-cost comparative advantage and competitiveness of coal chemical enterprises under the background of the continuous and substantial rise of international crude oil prices. In addition, in the current market environment, we strongly recommend [ Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) ], [ Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ], and we suggest focusing on high growth companies with strong certainty, such as Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) (fine phosphorus chemical industry), Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co.Ltd(688196) (biodiesel), Hailir Pesticides And Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(603639) (pesticide raw drugs and preparations), Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) (bio based chemicals and daily chemical products) Tangshan Sunfar Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603938) (photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane) and Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) (aramid) and other stocks.
Key data tracking
Price rise and fall: the top five increases in the price of chemical products this week are methanol (6.86%), PTA (6.82%), vinyl acetate (6.13%), propylene (MTO) method (5.87%) and propylene (PDH method) (5.87%); The top five price declines of chemical products this week were ethyl acetate (- 21.93%), butyl acetate (- 20.84%), acetic acid (- 13.74%), bisphenol A (- 7.36%) and epoxy resin (- 5.26%).
Rise and fall of price difference: styrene (632.59%), methanol (114.81%), BDO (CIS ANHYDRIC method) (61.26%), monoammonium phosphate (50.22%) and vinyl acetate (31.25%) were the top five in the price difference of chemical products this week; The top five price differentials of chemical products this week were propylene (naphtha method) (- 187.65%), ethyl acetate (- 70.32%), butyl acrylate (- 67.32%), R125 (- 56.48%) and butyl acetate (- 51.91%).
Risk warning: the international crude oil price fluctuates sharply; Poor control of overseas epidemic has led to lower than expected recovery
