On Thursday, the A-share market as a whole showed a volatile trend. After the opening of the Shanghai Composite Index, it once stood at the integer level of 3500 points, but then it fluctuated and fell back. Affected by the surge in international oil prices, the oil and gas sector remained at the top of the list. Banks, real estate and other undervalued weight sectors have also made collective efforts, and the main line of “steady growth” has strengthened significantly.
As of the close, the Shanghai composite index reported 348111 points, down 0.09%; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.09% and the gem index fell 1.51%. The total turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1010169 billion yuan, about 112 billion yuan compared with the previous day.
The oil and gas sector is undoubtedly a hot variety at present. In terms of oil prices, Brent crude oil prices rose further yesterday, reaching an intraday high of US $119.84/barrel, a nearly 10-year high since May 2012 and approaching the US $120 mark. Since this year, Brent crude oil has increased by 50%. China’s crude oil futures maintained a high degree of linkage. The main contract of SC crude oil rose by the limit for the second consecutive trading day, closing at 719.9 yuan / barrel yesterday. Since this year, the cumulative increase has also reached 45%.
It is noteworthy that the international oil price is approaching us $120 / barrel again. Its background is quite similar to that when the oil price exceeded US $120 10 years ago, which is due to the conflict and turbulence of important oil producing countries.
According to the Research Report of Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , in January 2011, the global financial crisis and the subsequent European debt crisis kept the monetary policy of the world’s major developed economies loose, and the Federal Reserve launched QE2 in November 2010, resulting in a large amount of demand; On the supply side, OPEC maintained its output target during the steady rise of oil prices in 2010. More importantly, there was tension in the Middle East and social unrest in important oil producing countries in North Africa and West Asia. Affected by this, the international oil price stood at $100 / barrel on January 31, 2011, and then hit a high of $128 in March 2012. In the second half of 2014, under the multiple influence of the Fed’s shift to monetary tightening and the “mess” of shale oil, the supply and demand pattern was reversed and the oil price entered a rapid decline channel.
As for the transmission of the rise of crude oil price to the fundamentals of listed oil enterprises, Xinjiang Zhundong Petroleum Technology Co.Ltd(002207) which is the leader in the current round of oil and gas sector and the recent six board stock price has been described in its announcement on abnormal fluctuations in stock trading.
Xinjiang Zhundong Petroleum Technology Co.Ltd(002207) said that the company’s oil service industry belongs to the upstream of the oil and gas industry chain, and the impact of oil price changes on the performance of oil service companies has a transmission process. The capital expenditure of oil and gas companies is the key influencing factor, which generally follows the transmission path of “oil price change → performance change of oil and gas companies → capital expenditure change of oil and gas companies → order change of oil service companies → performance change of oil service companies”. In general, the transmission speed of oil price decline to the performance of oil service enterprises is faster than that of oil price rise. When oil price rises, the increase of capital expenditure of oil and gas companies will generally lag one to two years.
In addition to oil and gas stocks continued to rise sharply, banks, real estate and other undervalued weight sectors also collectively rose yesterday. In terms of bank stocks, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) closed up 3.38%, while Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) and others rose more than 2%; In terms of real estate stocks, Gemdale Corporation(600383) rose 5.02%, while China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) and others rose more than 3%. “Chinese prefix” infrastructure stocks also had a strong trend, China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) yesterday rose 5.58%.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) global chief strategist Zhang Yidong said that the PMI index in February showed that China’s economic growth momentum had been repaired. The manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value. The rebound in demand is the most important marginal change in the PMI data in February. The overall recovery pace of non manufacturing industry has accelerated. Among them, under the development of infrastructure, the outlook of the construction industry has increased significantly.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that under the current round of “steady growth” market, investors should first pay attention to marginal changes in policies or areas with potential policy support, including not only traditional infrastructure, real estate and other related industrial chains, but also investment opportunities brought by new infrastructure under economic transformation, including computers, communications, information technology and other topics related to digital economy, carbon neutrality and so on Power grid and new energy, etc.
