March has arrived, and the two sessions of the National People's Congress have been opened. Economic target setting, macro policy direction and industrial policy will all have an impact on the market. The agency believes that the growth track in March has market opportunities and focuses on high-quality growth stocks with stable growth and oversold.
Securities Times · databao combed the market trend in the 30 trading days before, during and 30 trading days after the two sessions in recent 10 years. The overall performance is more or less. Before the two sessions, the probability of Shanghai stock index rising was 70%, with an average increase of 3.15%; After the two sessions, the probability of increase is 60%, with an average increase of 4.79%. The probability of Shenzhen composite index rising before and after the two sessions is 60%.
organization's latest market research and judgment
The two sessions will specify the policy focus and economic growth objectives, and the policy setting will provide an important reference for structural opportunities throughout the year. Institutions are generally optimistic about the market in March. Most institutions believe that the impact of external disturbance is limited, the bottom of A-Shares is gradually confirmed, and the market will usher in phased repair in March.
First, the overall valuation of A-Shares is relatively reasonable China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) research report believes that the impact of external risk events stays at the emotional level and has no direct impact on fundamentals. Pessimism gradually released; The overall valuation of A-Shares fell back to a relatively reasonable level, and the steady growth policy began to work from various aspects and angles; In the medium and long term, it is currently in the window period of configuration.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) also said that China's liquidity environment remained reasonably abundant, and the financial development force is expected to be realized gradually. The Fed's expectation of raising interest rates fell to the ground, overseas liquidity concerns eased, and market demand for capital allocation increased. Gem's profit valuation has high cost performance and has investment value.
Second, the market style has both steady growth and partial growth Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that in March, attention was paid to steady growth and consumption direction. The steady growth policy made efforts to hedge the economic downturn. In the upward range of fixed asset investment growth, the relevant sectors of steady growth performed prominently; The consumption sector benefited from narrowing of scissors in consumer inflation, and the high certainty of Baijiu and pharmaceuticals, subsidized appliances and mass consumer goods and the offline consumption industry were good.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) is optimistic about the growth style and tends to focus on the rebound opportunities of growth sectors such as new energy and digital economy.
Huaxin securities holds a similar view and believes that the Fed's interest rate hike weakened in March, superimposed on China's expectations of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates, and the risk appetite rebounded. It coincides with the intensive announcement period of the performance forecast of the first quarterly report. Due to the scientific and technological growth and high-end manufacturing direction with many adjustments in the early stage and maintaining a high boom, PEG has returned to a reasonable range, and there is still room for rebound.
Third, pay attention to the annual report, quarterly report and other data indicators China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that in the middle and late March, the prosperity indicators of popular tracks, such as the sales volume of new energy vehicles, etc. At present, the market has different expectations for the prosperity of popular tracks, and the relevant data will become an important signal for confirmation.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) believes that the performance window period of the annual report is also an opportunity for the market to move from chaos to order, and the performance realization of the high growth sector is expected to become an important opportunity to promote the upward movement of the market center. The boom track leader with large adjustment range in the early stage and high performance fulfillment will usher in a round of restorative market.
institutional recommended stock list
Data treasure comprehensively studied and judged the A-share market of 37 institutions in March, sorted out the list of individual stocks collectively recommended by three or more institutions, and 25 stocks were on the list. Oversold blue chips, steady growth sectors and leading white horses in various industries are favored by many institutions. Among them, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) was recommended by 7 institutions, followed by Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) respectively.
Judging from the difference between the latest price and the target price of the institution, Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) have the highest rising space, with 72.93% and 70.19% respectively Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and other stocks exceeding 50% Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and other five stocks are in the range of 40% to 50%. In terms of agency rating, food and beverage stocks such as Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) and so on have the highest attention, with more than 40 rating agencies Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) have low attention, and there are less than 10 rating agencies.
So far, 17 stocks have issued 2021 performance reports. Based on the express data or the median value of the forecast interval, the net profits of five stocks doubled, and the net profits of China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) and Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) stocks increased by 498.19% and 327.75% respectively year-on-year. Among them, China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) benefited from the optimization of supply side and the support of end consumer demand such as wind power and new energy vehicles, and the supply and demand of rare earth products market has been improved Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) also due to the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry, the installed capacity of power batteries increased significantly, driving the company's performance Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) substantial advance loss is mainly due to the sharp rise of domestic coal purchase price year-on-year due to external factors.
