Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Cinda Securities: the current market seriously underestimates the toughness, elasticity and sustainability of coal demand
At present, the market seriously underestimates the toughness, elasticity and sustainability of coal demand, and the production capacity cycle is down, the supply elasticity converges, and the prosperity and sustainability of the industry are expected to exceed expectations, while the sector valuation is far from reflected. Undervaluation, high performance certainty and considerable dividend income make the coal sector “both offensive and defensive”, and the systematic revaluation of the market has just begun to maintain the “optimistic” rating of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to three main lines: first, Yankuang energy, the leader of low value and high dividend power coal, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Second, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , which are both resource scarcity and significant growth; Third, Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , which have great potential for extensive expansion brought by the increase of asset securitization rate of state-owned coal group.
open source Securities: the coal sector has high allocation value and is optimistic about the valuation and repair of the sector
At present, the driving force of the coal sector is no longer the elastic release of performance supported by price. The short-term high performance of coal enterprises has been gradually recognized by the market, and the stable release of performance in the medium and long term is the key factor to clear the expected obstacles and guide the reconstruction of coal stock valuation. The investment logic of the coal sector may mainly focus on the two main lines of “stable growth” and “transformation”: in terms of “stable growth”, the infrastructure real estate chain benefits, which is good for the coal coke steel industry chain, and the peak of steel carbon can delay the demand for coking coal.
In addition, the price of coking coal is determined by the market and the policy is not controlled, so the coking coal sector still has obvious elasticity; In terms of “transformation”, under the background of carbon neutrality, the willingness of coal enterprises to increase production capacity has decreased significantly. In the future, coal prices will remain high and endogenous growth is insufficient, but epitaxial growth will become the mainstream. Coal enterprises are highly profitable and have the ability to make transformation, and the future opportunity period is within the next 5-10 years.
At present, the undervalued characteristics of coal stocks are obvious. We believe that the coal sector has high allocation value and are optimistic about the valuation and repair of the sector. Objects benefiting from steady performance and high dividend: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects expected to benefit from growth: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation target beneficiaries: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Huajin Securities: focus on coking coal stocks with high elasticity of performance and subject matter with strong certainty of undervaluation
The coal industry is still optimistic. First, March and April are the start-up season, and the demand for coking coal may be boosted. At present, the data level is also gradually verified; Second, most coal listed companies increase in advance. From the perspective of valuation, the current safety margin of coal stocks is high; Third, China’s coal prices are operating at a high level, and overseas prices are still strong. The performance level is expected to be maintained this year. After the sector is wrongly killed, there is a large room for repairing undervalued stocks. In the context of steady growth, it is recommended to pay attention to coking coal stocks with high flexibility and highly deterministic undervalued targets, such as Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) .
Minsheng Securities: coal enterprises with stable profits and high cash flow are expected to face value revaluation
Coke fundamentals are expected to improve and the price is expected to be strong. According to the coal resources network, the downstream demand has recovered rapidly recently, the blast furnace operating rate of northern steel plant has recovered to a high level, and the demand for rigid inventory replenishment is strong. However, although the environmental protection and production restriction on the supply side has loosened with the end of the Winter Olympic Games, due to the rapid rise of coal prices, the small number of people in the coking plant and the lack of power to increase production, the supply continues to be tight in the short term, and the price is expected to be strong.
Coking coal prices are expected to be strong. According to the coal resource network, the coke coal inventory in the plant of downstream coke and steel enterprises is at a low level, the demand for raw coal is good, and the production limit of some coke and steel enterprises is still expected to weaken, so the enthusiasm for raw coal procurement is increased. Affected by this, coal mine shipments are good, and the overall mood of coking coal market is good. On the whole, the coking coal price is expected to be stable, medium and strong in the short term.
In terms of investment suggestions, 1) companies with stable profits and high cash flow are expected to usher in value revaluation. It is suggested to pay attention to Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) . 2) The transformation of traditional energy enterprises to new energy has kicked off, and power investment energy and Yankuang energy are recommended. 3) The coking coal sector is expected to benefit from the demand growth driven by infrastructure investment. It is suggested to pay attention to Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) .
Capital Securities: the valuation of high-quality thermal coal is still low and continues to be optimistic about the long-term investment value of the industry
The policy continues to make efforts to ensure price stability, and is optimistic about the long-term investment value under undervalued value. Since late January, the coal price has risen too fast due to tight supply and the impact of international coal prices. The implementation of the signing of the long-term association for coal has not reached the expected level. At the same time, the operating pressure of the power plant is huge. The national development and Reform Commission has intensively issued policies to prevent the coal price from rising too fast and control the coal price to operate within a reasonable range The pit mouth and port prices of Changxie coal have been guided respectively. The core is to control the rapid rise of coal price and transmit it to the downstream. The market has emotional panic about the policy adjustment of coal price. We believe that the combination of policies is mainly to correct the deviation that the price rises too fast and exceeds a reasonable level. The main reason for the price rise is that the short-term constraints on the supply side still exist, In particular, the international coal price is rising due to the superposition of changes in the external international situation. Under the strong regulation of the policy, we expect the coal price to remain at a high level within the reasonable price range. The prices of pits and ports in the first quarter are higher than those in the same period of the last three years. The coal enterprises still have sufficient profit space, and the valuation of high-quality thermal coal is still low, Continue to be optimistic about the long-term investment value of the industry.
Ping An Securities: coal chemical industry will become an important alternative to oil supply
From the development history of world coal chemical industry, the development of modern coal chemical industry is mainly closely related to oil price, war, politics and other factors. Under the pressure of tight world oil and gas supply and high price, coal chemical industry will become an important choice to replace oil supply.
With the development of coal production, we believe that the international profitability will be significantly improved. Coal to oil and coal quality utilization projects are expected to gradually move from planning to implementation, and equipment suppliers and engineering companies upstream of coal chemical industry may benefit. Gasifier, hydrogenation reactor and air separation unit are important equipment of coal to oil project. It is suggested to pay attention to the manufacturers of gasifier equipment Changzheng Engineering Co.Ltd(603698) , Yunding Technology Co.Ltd(000409) , Lanzhou Ls Heavy Equipment Co.Ltd(603169) , domestic suppliers of large-scale air separation equipment Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group Co.Ltd(002430) , Xi’An Shaangu Power Co.Ltd(601369) , etc.
Guosheng Securities: coal enterprises have successively issued development plans and transformation is in the ascendant
Coal enterprises have successively issued development plans, and the transformation is in the ascendant. Under the goal of “double carbon”, the green transformation of traditional energy enterprises is imminent. Under the policy guidance, new materials and new energy are the breaking direction. At the same time, considering that most coal enterprises have abundant cash flow, Land & raw materials and other necessary resources for transformation, and thermal power & chemical operation experience, coal enterprises have advantages in transformation. Up to now, more and more coal enterprises have successively released development plans for new materials and new energy. The transformation of traditional energy enterprises is worth looking forward to. They are strongly optimistic about the investment opportunities for the transformation of coal enterprises this year, focusing on Power Investment energy (green power), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (energy storage and photovoltaic modules), Yankuang energy (modern coal chemical industry and green power), Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) (green power + new materials), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (hydrogen energy).
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: there is still some room for the price of the annual long-term association to rise, with limited impact on the profitability of the enterprise
In the context of the new price formation mechanism and international energy tension, the volatility of the coal industry has weakened. On February 24, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on further improving the coal market price formation mechanism. The floating range of the new coal price formation mechanism is further narrower than that in the previous draft for comments, and there is no longer a benchmark price. The price within the range is driven by the market, and the price outside the range will be strengthened by policy regulation; 2) It is clear that coal-fired power prices can be effectively transmitted within a reasonable range, and coal-fired power generation enterprises can timely and reasonably transmit fuel cost changes within the range of no more than 20% of the benchmark price. The mechanism of improving coal price this time is of far-reaching significance, which helps to stabilize the expectation of long-term electricity coal contract price. The annual long-term association price still has a certain room for rise, and has a limited impact on the profitability of enterprises. Another background of the rapid rise of fossil energy prices cannot be ignored., In the medium and long term, coal prices will still be affected to some extent.
In terms of investment suggestions, environmental protection and public utilities are recommended: China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , China power, Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , Henan Bccy Environmental Energy Co.Ltd(300614) , Jiangsu Huahong Technology Co.Ltd(002645) , Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) . Building materials: ad shares, Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) . Coal: recommended China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) .
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