Main points
Macro view:
1. Steady growth is in the early stage, but the degree of steady growth is not well anchored. In the short term, steady growth is still subject to the stabilization of real estate.
2. The US economic policy turns to balance inflation and economic aggregate. There is a risk of stagflation in the short term, but the economy is more likely to return to stability.
Market view:
1. The growth sector has entered the period of strategic layout. It needs to rebound in the short term, with appropriate cost performance in the medium term and benefiting from the slowdown of economic growth in the long term.
2. Before the anchor of steady growth moves down, the annual consumption is still dominant.
Optimistic about the sector:
1. Be optimistic about new energy, automotive intelligence, semiconductor materials, military industry, coal, real estate leaders of central enterprises, food and beverage.
2. Be optimistic about CSI 300, Hong Kong stock Internet technology index and Nasdaq 100 index.
Market resumption: A shares rebounded slightly as a whole this month, and most indexes rose. In terms of index valuation, the valuation of major indexes increased slightly, and the gem index decreased slightly; The price earnings ratio is the lowest in history. The sector rose more than fell, led by the non-ferrous metals and coal industries, up more than 10%, and the home appliances and non bank financial industries callback.
Style performance: small and medium cap stocks stopped falling and rebounded this month, rising by 3.24% and 4.28% respectively, and large cap stocks fell slightly by 0.96%. In terms of valuation, the undervalued values of senior high schools have rebounded this month. The high school undervalued sector increased by 2.07%, 0.94% and 1.61% respectively this month.
Short term market sentiment: the net inflow of funds going north this month was 1.933 billion yuan. From the perspective of changes in the number of shares held by the industry, the number of shares held by non-ferrous metals, banking and transportation industries increased significantly, while the number of shares held by computer, medicine, biology and automobile industries decreased relatively greatly. The main inflow industries of funds going north are: non-ferrous metals, banking, public utilities, transportation and coal; The main outflow industries are: computer, food and beverage, medicine and biology. The amount of the two financing transactions increased, and the financing market turned into inflow. The implied volatility of SSE 50ETF option decreased by 6.81 percentage points, with the current value of 16.01%; The current value of the standard & Poor's 500 volatility (VIX) index is 27.59, down 0.07 from the previous value.
Long term market sentiment: market risk appetite is generally cautious and tends to pick up. At present, the yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 dividend - 10-year Treasury bond is - 0.72%, down 0.09 percentage points month on month, above the average and in the historical 70% quantile; The current value of A-share implied equity risk premium (ERP) is 2.58%, down 0.22 percentage points month on month, above the average, at the historical 56% quantile, down from the previous month. Compared with last month, ERP in most popular sectors increased month on month.
Risk tips
Downside risks of China's economy; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations; The epidemic rebound exceeded expectations; Geopolitical risks, etc.
