This week’s strategy:
Monthly strategy report (March 22): internal and external pressures are gradually digested, and the style tends to converge from differentiation. 1. Market pulsation and brief prospect: internal and external pressures are gradually digested, and the style tends to converge from differentiation. 1. Market pulsation: internal and external pressures are gradually digested, the index stratification stabilizes and fluctuates, and the style tends to converge from differentiation
1) gradual digestion of internal and external pressure. Since the middle of December 21, US inflation has intensified and remained at a high level, the expectation of monetary policy contraction of the Federal Reserve has suddenly heated up, and the expected pressure of external liquidity tightening has been released. At the same time, under China’s “non speculation in housing and housing” and “difficult to see big fiscal stimulus”, the market still doubts the transmission effect of this round of “wide money – wide credit – steady growth”. In the past two and a half months, the trend of the global and A-share market has dropped, and MSCI global, the United States, the European Union and A-share indexes have all fallen by 8-12%, gradually digesting the above two internal and external pressures; The recent military conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the development of the situation have changed in many ways, adding to the uncertainty of geopolitical, economic impact, inflation trend and policy orientation, which makes the global market fluctuate in the short term.
2) A shares: the index stabilized and fluctuated in layers. Affected by the above internal and external pressures, the A-share science and technology growth sector has led this round of correction since mid December. During this period, the maximum correction of Kechuang 50 and gem index is around 20%, and the correction of CSI 3 and Wande A is around 10%. However, the index shows a trend of layered stabilization and shock:
(1) from 2 / 7 to 2 / 18, the undervalued and stable growth sector took the lead in stabilizing and shaking: from 2 / 7 to 2 / 18 after the Spring Festival, the end of real estate policy was gradually strengthened and the expectation of stable growth increased. At the same time, the total amount of social finance credit and medium and long-term loans of enterprises exceeded the expectation in January. The undervalued traditional blue chip generally took the lead in stabilizing and rebounding, and the CSI 300 and CSI 100 rebounded by about 2% during the period; In terms of industry sectors, construction materials, steel, chemicals, banks, utilities and other undervalued cyclical sectors led the rise, with increases ranging from 12-5% during the period, while high valuation power equipment, new energy and electronics bucked the trend and fell by 3% and 1% respectively.
(2) since February 15, the science and technology growth sector has stabilized and rebounded by relay: the science and technology growth sector, which has continued to make rapid high correction in the previous two months, has stabilized and rebounded by relay after the above undervalued steady growth sector led the rebound for about two weeks. Since February 15, the science and technology innovation 50 and gem index have rebounded by 5.4% and 3.9% respectively, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and China Securities 100 have rebounded by 0.3% and 1.4% respectively in the same period; In terms of industry sectors, the growth of science and technology represented by power equipment and new energy, non-ferrous metals (lithium cobalt ore), medicine and biology, electronics (semiconductor) and military industry led the rise, with an increase of 9.5-4.3%, while the media, leisure services, non bank finance, building materials, household appliances, banking and other sectors bucked the trend and fell by 4.2-2.5%.
3) style tends to converge from differentiation. With the stabilization and shock of the above indexes, the market style also tends to converge from differentiation:
(1) from December 15 to February 11, the financial style took the lead and rose against the trend: during this period, the large financial sector represented by undervalued insurance, banking and real estate took the lead, rising by 8-6% against the trend, and the financial style index rose by 4%; In the same period, power equipment, new energy, electronics, military industry, medicine and biology, food and beverage, automobile and other track growth sectors with relatively high valuation generally sharply corrected by 23-15%, and the growth style index fell by 16%; Over the same period, the consumption style index fell by 7% and 11% respectively.
During this period, the style differentiation was significant, the income difference between finance and growth style was as high as 20%, and the income difference between the beginning and end of the industry sector was as high as 31%.
(2) since February 15, the growth style has stabilized and quickly repaired and rebounded: since mid February, the pace of monetary policy tightening of the Federal Reserve is expected to ease slightly. After the rapid correction in the past two months, the track growth sector has ushered in a rapid repair and rebound; Since February 15, the four style indexes of growth, cycle, consumption and finance have successively + 4.9%, + 2.7%, + 0.1%, – 2.8%, and the income gap between growth and financial style has converged rapidly around 8%. In terms of industry sectors, the track growth sectors, such as power equipment and new energy, non-ferrous metals, medicine and biology, electronics, chemical industry and military industry, led the decline by 9.5-4.3%, while the undervalued steady growth sectors represented by insurance, building materials, household appliances and banks fell by 4.7-2.5%.
2. Brief market outlook: “external tightening and internal loosening” superimposed on the effect of stable growth policy, the undervalued value is large, and the financial infrastructure can still be held in the short term. The style is reversed or when the US dollar interest rate rise is implemented
Recent A-share allocation suggestions: there is still a rebound opportunity in the stage of big finance, real estate department and infrastructure chain of “undervalued value + wide credit + steady growth”. The track industry with high absolute valuation may still be under pressure in the short term, and the style may be reversed in mid and late March. The current domestic and foreign macro environment can be summarized as “the United States resists inflation and China suppresses stagnation”, and the corresponding policy is loose inside and tight outside. Overall, the pace of the Fed’s interest rate hike may accelerate this external pressure, while China’s broad monetary and credit policy is expected to increase, the growth rate of traditional infrastructure and new infrastructure investment is expected to increase, the real estate policy is gradually correcting and loosening, the follow-up consumption promotion policy is expected, and the effect of steady growth is expected to be realized step by step.
Although the rhythm of the Fed’s interest rate hike has eased slightly recently, the high US bond interest rate has fallen, the overvalued growth sector has ushered in an oversold rebound, and the short-term style has differentiated or converged. However, under the above internal and external macro environment, there is still a rebound opportunity in the stage of “undervalued value + broad credit + steady growth” in the large finance, real estate department and infrastructure chain. The PE (TTM) of such undervalued steady growth sector is generally still within 10 times, and the relative valuation is still within the 15% quantile of the recent ten-year range. The safety cushion and steady growth measures are gradually implemented. The track industry with high absolute valuation may still be under pressure in the short term before the Fed’s tightening rhythm guidance is clear and the US dollar’s first interest rate hike falls.
The convergence trend of the above market style is reversed, or when the US dollar rises interest rates for the first time, the Fed’s guidelines for raising interest rates are clear, and the effect of China’s steady economic growth is basically established, the expected time point may be in the middle and late March of 22 years.
2. Market focus in March: the trend of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the policy rhythm of the Federal Reserve and the macro setting of the two sessions of the National People’s Congress. As shown in the above review, after the continuous correction in the early stage and fully digesting the internal and external pressure, the undervalued blue chip and overvalued growth sectors at two time points after the Spring Festival and mid February have successively shown the stabilization and repair of the index in layers The trend of style differentiation towards convergence. Looking forward to March, the factors affecting the market operation mainly include the trend of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the rhythm of the Fed’s policy, the tone of the national two sessions, etc.
1. Trend of the situation in Russia and Ukraine. As the world’s two major exporters of oil and gas, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , metals and minerals, if the conflict situation between Russia and Ukraine continues, it will disturb the repair of the global supply chain after the epidemic, exacerbate concerns about global inflation and drag down the momentum of economic recovery led by the EU. If the subsequent Russian Ukrainian situation is likely to subside as soon as possible, the international bulk prices of oil and gas and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) are expected to fall, and the global inflation situation will return to the situation before the outbreak of the conflict.
2. Fed policy rhythm. Previously, the United States released the higher than expected inflation data in January, and some members of the Federal Reserve said that the market has greatly increased the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50bp at one time in March, and it is expected to raise interest rates by 25bp in May, June, September and December of the year, that is, the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates five times / 150bp in 22 years, and the interest rate raising festival will rise again.
With the acceleration of the above US dollar interest rate hike, the US bond interest rate rose rapidly. The 10Y US bond interest rate rose ~10bp to above 2.0% and hit a new high of two and a half years. The US dollar index also rebounded. As the anchor of global asset pricing, the US dollar interest rate and exchange rate will continue to suppress the overvalued industry sector until the upward pressure of the two is fully released.
In the near future, with the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the slowdown of the momentum of U.S. economic recovery, the market’s expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates too fast during the year has eased slightly, especially for the probability of starting to raise interest rates by 50bp in March. Recently, the market has slightly slowed down the pace of tightening for the Federal Reserve. The interest rate of 10Y US Treasury bonds has fallen to around 1.95% from the high point of 2.05%, and the US dollar index also fell slightly.
At the Fed meeting in mid March, it is expected that the members of the Fed will provide guidance on the path and pace of interest rate hikes in the future. Whether to “add more in small steps” or “move faster in big steps” will have a different impact on the operation rhythm of the global market in the near and medium term. 3. Macro setting of the national two sessions: the expected target of local economic growth was positive before, or it indicates that the subsequent steady growth will be gradually implemented. The 22-year GDP growth target announced by the national local two sessions is positive, with a median of 6.5%, and the weighted average growth rate is also around 6.0%, which is significantly higher than the national two-year average compound growth rate of 5.1% in 19-21. In terms of the announced efforts to stabilize local growth, improving the growth rate of fixed asset investment and boosting consumption are the two main driving directions; Investment end efforts include traditional infrastructure such as rail transit, affordable housing construction and old house reconstruction, as well as new infrastructure such as new energy and digital infrastructure; The consumer side boost mainly focuses on the consumption of durable goods such as leisure tourism, new energy vehicles, smart appliances and household appliances. Under the central mobilization order for steady growth, local governments are partial to the expected goal of economic growth, which may indicate that the follow-up steady growth will be gradually implemented.
It is expected that the upcoming two sessions of the National People’s Congress this week will set the national GDP growth rate around 5.5% in 22 years, and the macro policy orientation is more relaxed and positive than that in 21 years.
4. The distribution of performance forecast has deteriorated, and there is negative performance expectation, which may suppress the rebound space and sustainability in the near future. As of 2 / 8, 2547 A-share companies have issued performance forecasts for 21 years (the forecast rate accounts for 54.2% of the whole a), of which the pre hi and early warning categories account for 57.8% and 42.1% respectively, especially the loss accounts for 27.1%; The distribution of performance forecast deteriorated quarter by quarter, indicating that the performance distribution of A-share listed companies deteriorated significantly in the second half of the year with the dual pressure of economic slowdown and rising upstream costs, and it is expected that 22q1 will still be difficult to improve.
In terms of overall performance, calculated according to the median value of the 21-year net profit range announced by 2547 companies, the median year-on-year growth rate was 50.9%, and the total value increased by 101.4% year-on-year; Excluding the huge impact of the changes in the base numbers of Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , HNA and Kangmei, the median and total year-on-year growth rates of net profits of 2541 companies released were 50.4% and 50.7% respectively, which was basically stable compared with 40.6% and 52.3% of the corresponding growth rates of net profits of these companies in the first three quarters of 21.
However, from the perspective of the expected difference, 1122 analysts made clear performance forecasts for 21 years. Compared with the median value of analysts’ forecasts and the median value of the company’s forecast interval, the proportion of better than and less than expected was about 30% to 70% respectively, and the total value was 20.5% lower than the predicted value as a whole.
From the perspective of the distribution of industries with poor performance expectations, the median value of the forecast is better than the median value of the market forecast, that is, the industries with poor positive expectations are mainly concentrated in the cycle, science and technology, consumption and other sectors such as communication, military industry, household appliances, building materials, medicine and biology, non-ferrous metals and chemical industry; The quarterly results of mining, transportation and food and beverage industries meet expectations; The performance of computer, automobile, media, public utilities, construction, real estate, commerce and trade, textile and clothing, leisure services and other industries affected by the epidemic repeatedly was significantly lower than expected.
III. Market Research and judgment: the cumulative effect of the steady growth policy is expected to gradually appear, and it is expected to rebound after the index shock. 1. The tightening pace of the Federal Reserve is slightly slower. In the one and a half months from mid December to the end of January, US bond interest rates rose significantly, and the rapid correction of the three major indexes of US stocks exacerbated the adjustment pressure of A-share overvalued technology growth stocks in part; With the market’s continuous digestion of the Fed’s policy change and tightening, the risk has been fully included. During this period, the significant rise of US bond interest rate and the rapid correction of US stocks (the three major stock indexes fell 10-15% from the high point) have fully responded to the US Federal Reserve’s eagle turn and the interest rate increase of 5-7 times or 125175bp during the year.
In the near future, the tightening pressure of external policies has slowed slightly, and overvalued assets have rebounded from oversold. Recently, with the market expectation that the momentum of U.S. economic recovery will slow down, especially the situation in Russia and Ukraine may drag down the momentum of global economic recovery, the market has eased slightly the pace of the Fed’s interest rate hike during the year. The probability of starting the interest rate hike of 50bp in March has dropped significantly from the high level, and the interest rate of 10Y U.S. Treasury bonds has dropped from the high point of 2.05% to around 1.95%, Meanwhile, the 10-year inflation expectation implied in the US bond interest rate curve remained stable at around 2.5%, which did not intensify with the recent rise in international commodity prices.
The near-term outlook is the wait-and-see period before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting announces interest rate hikes and provides table contraction guidance before mid March, and the market probability remains in range volatility. As for a shares, since they took the lead in adjusting for more than two months, the length and range of adjustment have made a relatively full response to internal and external pressure. Subsequently, as the easing policy continues to increase, the steady growth measures are implemented and the steady growth effect is expected to gradually improve, A-Shares are expected to take the lead in stabilizing and repairing.
2. The effect of wide monetary structure and wide credit has begun to show, and the policy of promoting consumption and stabilizing real estate may need to be increased.
1) the effect of wide monetary structure and wide credit has begun to show. Under the requirement that the management frequently emphasizes the appropriate advance of the steady growth policy, and under the implementation of the tasks of financial support for steady growth, such as the continuous reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates by the central bank at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the market pays great attention to the transmission effect of wide currency → structural wide credit → stable economy?
The newly released total amount of social finance and credit increased more than expected year-on-year in January of 22, especially the medium and long-term loans of enterprises changed from decline to increase year-on-year, which preliminarily confirmed the effect of wide monetary structure and wide credit; In January, the issuance of medium and long-term corporate loans, corporate bond financing and special bonds of local governments increased year-on-year, indicating that the follow-up investment in manufacturing and infrastructure increased steadily and contributed to the steady growth of the economy.
Specifically, in January, the stock of M2 and social finance increased by 9.8% and 10.5% respectively year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8% and 0.2%, mainly due to the acceleration of fiscal expenditure and the increase of financing of local government bonds and corporate bonds, and the growth rate of M2 and social finance continued the upward trend since the second quarter and the fourth quarter of 21.
In addition, after the year-on-year growth rate of credit stock fell for ten months to a record low of 11.6%, it became stable in January; In addition, excluding the Spring Festival effect, M1 actually increased by 3.4% in January compared with February last year. It is expected that the downward trend of M1 growth rate since the beginning of the 21st century is expected to be reversed.
2) the medium and long-term loans of enterprises have changed from decline to increase year-on-year, and the local special bonds have increased continuously, indicating that the recovery of manufacturing and infrastructure investment is expected. In terms of the main sub item structure, the new social finance and credit in January increased by nearly 1 trillion and 400 billion yuan year-on-year to 6.2 and 4.2 trillion yuan, both exceeding expectations; Corporate bond and local government special bond financing increased by 188.2 and 358.9 billion yuan to 579.9 and 602.6 billion yuan respectively year-on-year. Together with the large amount of credit, the new social finance increased by nearly trillion yuan in the same month.
It is worth noting that the financing amount of corporate bonds and local government special bonds in a single month has increased year-on-year for three or four consecutive months, reflecting the steady loosening of monetary policy and the gradual development of fiscal policy since the fourth quarter of last year.
In addition, in January, new short-term loans and medium and long-term loans of non-financial enterprises increased by 434.5 and 60 billion yuan to 1.0 and 2.1 trillion yuan respectively year-on-year. Previously, medium and long-term loans of enterprises have decreased for six consecutive months year-on-year. Medium and long-term loans of enterprises have changed from negative to positive year-on-year. At the same time, the proportion of medium and long-term loans in credit has significantly increased to 53%. The improvement of credit structure and quality indicates that the subsequent manufacturing industry and infrastructure investment are steadily rising.
3) residents’ short-term loans and medium and long-term loans have increased less year-on-year, and the policy of promoting consumption and stabilizing real estate may need to be increased. However, the short-term loans and medium and long-term loans reflecting residents’ consumption and house purchase decreased by 200 billion yuan year-on-year, and increased less year-on-year for 3 and 2 consecutive months respectively, indicating that since the fourth quarter of last year, the spread of the epidemic in China has continued to inhibit residents’ consumption. It is expected that the consumption promotion policy is expected to increase with the improvement of China’s sporadic epidemic. The real estate sales in the previous mortgage policy tends to relax, a short recovery of two months, nearly two months again turned weak. The pressure of the downward trend of real estate on the economy needs to be further alleviated. It is expected that the follow-up support for the purchase and consumption policy is expected to loosen the administrative control tools such as purchase and loan restrictions due to the implementation of urban policies, and the financing policies for rescuing the capital chain of real estate enterprises and ensuring the construction and delivery of real estate are also being gradually corrected and relaxed.
Combined with the change trend of the above credit and social finance data, it can be seen that the previous standard reduction and equal width monetary policy and the real estate tightening and slightly loosening policy have limited or short effect on boosting the medium and long-term financing willingness of enterprises and easing the downward pressure of the real estate market. The superposition of China’s epidemic spread in many places and once again curbed residents’ consumption, so the economic stabilization policy still needs to be strengthened; Looking forward to the next 22 years, under the requirements of taking economic construction as the center and making appropriate efforts to stabilize growth policies, especially considering the great downward pressure on the 22q1 economy, it is expected that the RRR will be reduced again in the first quarter after the RRR and interest rate reduction at the beginning of the end of the year, and it is expected to reduce the MLF policy interest rate again in due time, so as to release the transmission effect of wide currency → structural wide credit → stabilizing the economy.
3. The cumulative effect of the steady growth policy is expected to gradually appear. Affected by the repeated suppression of consumption recovery by the epidemic, tight real estate financial policies and relatively restrained fiscal expenditure, the downward pressure on the economy has gradually become prominent since 21q3, and the actual year-on-year growth rate of GDP in a single quarter has moved down significantly. The previously released steady growth policy signal, due to the limited landing strength in the short term and the unchanged general tone of the superimposed real estate market policy, makes the market doubt the final steady growth effect. In particular, the total amount and structure of social finance credit in December are weaker than expected, which further strengthens the market’s concern about the strength and effect of steady growth in the short term.
We believe that the above concerns about the strength and effect of steady growth, and even the hidden worries about the rapid decline of performance growth of listed companies, have become one of the main factors to suppress the market in the short term. However, with the recent overweight of stable growth policies and the implementation of measures, it is expected that the cumulative effect will gradually appear. At that time, it will gradually enter the stage of “intensive landing and effect display” from the stage of “policy signal and observation doubt”, and there will be upward correction momentum for the probability.
At the end of the 21st century, the central economic work conference clearly focused on economic construction this year, and has clearly issued a mobilization order for stable growth, requiring all regions and departments to shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, and all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, with appropriate policy force.
After two comprehensive RRR cuts in the second half of last year to release low-cost long-term funds, the one-year LPR interest rate was lowered by 5bp to 3.80% after 20 months. At the same time, the one-year MLF and 7-day Omo operating interest rate were lowered by 10bp in January (the time point and range were slightly higher than expected). The monetary policy released the signal of “incremental price reduction”, and the progress of fiscal expenditure is expected to accelerate, The transmission effect of broad money → structural credit → stable economy is expected to be gradually verified.
4. Market Research and judgment: the adjustment pressure is fully released, and there are structural opportunities for bargain hunting in the shock.
1) the internal and external pressure that led to the rapid adjustment of overvalued growth stocks in this round was fully released. In the previous strategy research report, we analyzed and pointed out that the expected stage of China’s steady growth was fulfilled, but the effect was questionable, and the rhythm of the Fed’s interest rate rise and table contraction was higher than expected, which were the two main internal and external reasons for the rapid adjustment of overvalued growth stocks in this round.
We believe that the pressure release of stage adjustment is sufficient, mainly based on:
First, the high valuation growth sector has been fully adjusted in this round. The gem and sci-tech innovation index, which represent the growth of science and technology, have peaked for more than two months, and the adjustment range has reached around 20%. The lithium battery, photovoltaic, rare earth, semiconductor, intelligent driving, military industry and other industry indexes representing the high expectation technology track have generally retreated 15-30% from the high point, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 3, wandequan a The adjustment range of CSI 100 and other market indexes generally reaches around 10%; At the same time, from the perspective of valuation, the PE quantile of the above scientific and technological growth industries has generally dropped to less than 30% in recent ten years; The downward revision of the valuation of the high valuation growth sector with unchanged investment logic has been relatively sufficient, and some stocks have stabilized and rebounded with the catalysis of the higher than expected performance forecast of the annual report.
From the point of view that the complete cycle of a round of market adjustment has successively experienced “policy bottom – valuation bottom – market bottom – Performance bottom”, it has been adjusted to the bottom grinding stage of valuation (emotional bottom); The turnover of the two cities has remained within 1 trillion yuan for nearly 20 consecutive trading days, with a daily average of less than 880 billion yuan, down nearly 30% from the daily average of 1.2 trillion yuan in 21h2; The balance of the two financial institutions in Shanghai and Shenzhen has fallen from the high trend in the middle of September 21 to 1.72 trillion yuan for five months, a new low since the end of May 21.
At present, relatively undervalued and overvalued structural sectors coexist, and the sectors that have fully adjusted first are expected to take the lead in stabilizing and rebounding; At the same time, with the development of counter cyclical regulation and steady growth, the medium-term performance expectation is expected to gradually improve, so as to drive the market index to get rid of the bottom shock deadlock and start a round of repairing the rising market.
Second, China’s steady growth measures and policy correction have achieved initial results. In the near future, monetary easing has been continuously increased, and measures to stabilize growth are expected to be introduced one after another. Monetary easing → structural easing → stabilizing economic transmission effect. In January, the total amount of social financing credit exceeded expectations and medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased, indicating that credit easing has achieved initial results, and the effect of stabilizing growth from the end of the first quarter is expected to be gradually verified; At the same time, the policy correction of double control of energy consumption, power and production restriction and too tight real estate credit policy in the second half of last year has achieved initial results, the bottleneck of production and supply has been eliminated, and the policy factors that suppress domestic demand have been alleviated.
At the same time, in view of the current unstable recovery trend of the industrial economy and some industries with special difficulties in the service industry due to the impact of the epidemic, the national standing committee recently determined measures to promote the steady growth of the industrial economy and the relief and development of industries with special difficulties in the service industry, mainly including: first, increasing the reduction and exemption of income tax in industry and service industry, Extend the tax deferment policy for small, medium and micro enterprises in the manufacturing industry; Second, guide and strengthen financial services, provide incentive financial support from the people’s Bank of China, increase inclusive small and micro loans, promote the rapid growth of medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry, and promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises; (III) promote the strengthening of manufacturing chains and the reconstruction of industrial infrastructure, accelerate the construction of new infrastructure and the transformation of energy-saving and carbon reduction technologies in key areas, and expand effective investment; Fourth, for industries with special difficulties such as catering, retail, tourism, transportation and passenger transport, we will increase support in phased tax relief and deferred payment of some social security fees to promote stable employment and recovery of consumption. The reduction of taxes and fees for Industry and service industry and the increase or extension of financial support are conducive to the recovery of social economy and business vitality.
3. The overall valuation of the market is reasonable and safe, and the valuation of more than 60% of the industries is low.
From the valuation of major market indexes, at present, the PE (TTM) of wandequan a, wandequan a (excluding two barrels of financial oil), CSI 300, CSI 500, gem index and Kechuang 50 are 18.3, 28.1, 13.2, 18.4, 55.3 and 49.1 times respectively, which are respectively 52.1%, 47.4%, 66.9%, 2.3%, 57.3% and 0.0% of the quantile of the historical range in recent ten years; The overall valuation of the market index is reasonable and safe. The valuation of CSI 500 and Kechuang 50 index has reached the bottom of history, and the valuation of CSI 300 and gem index is slightly higher vertically.
From the perspective of the quantile distribution of sector valuation, nearly 70% of Shenwan industries are located in the quantile below 30%, and the valuation security of most industries is low. In terms of specific industry distribution, the PE (TTM) of leisure services, electrical equipment, new energy, automobile, food and beverage and public utilities ranges from 87-80% of the quantile in the last decade; The PE (TTM) of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, commerce and trade, household appliances and lithium batteries is in the range of 70-60% of the quantile in recent ten years; The PE (TTM) of other industries such as science and technology, consumption and finance is within 30% of the quantile in the last decade.
2) structural opportunities for bargain hunting in shock.
We believe that China’s current macro environment is entering the stage of “economic slowdown in the middle and late stage and policies tend to be loose in stability”. Considering that the 22-year growth target announced by the local two sessions is relatively positive, and the two key points are to improve fixed asset investment and boost consumption, policies for stabilizing growth are expected to be introduced one after another, and fiscal expenditure is expected to increase in advance The ministries and commissions have actively introduced policies to stabilize investment, stimulate industry and promote consumption, and implemented them steadily.
In the near future, the investment chain of “two new and one heavy” (super project of “counting from the east to the west”, large base of scenery and new energy, 5g + digital infrastructure, charging pile / power exchange station, UHV, high-speed rail, smart city and underground pipe network, affordable housing, urban old transformation, etc.) may have relative benefits; In the medium term, “new infrastructure, new energy, new materials and advanced manufacturing” and other industries with stable price and volume, as well as “middle and lower reaches extensive consumption” may be the main structural opportunities for bargain hunting layout in the medium term after the recent rapid shock correction. If the subsequent transmission effect of wide currency → wide credit → stable economy is gradually verified, the periodic upward opportunity of the index is expected to be opened.
In combination with the development of covid-19 epidemic in the past 22 years, the change of prevention and control pressure, the expectation of macro policies and the change of industry prosperity and other major variables, we focus on three main investment lines:
(1) bottom (out of difficulty) reversal: industries whose industry boom fundamentals are about to bottom out and improve, mainly including animal husbandry (pig prices have basically bottomed out, and the deregulation of production capacity is about to start), modern seed industry, Airport (the impact of covid-19 epidemic is gradually weakened, and international flights are expected to be gradually opened in the medium term), auto parts (driven by vehicle inventory replenishment) Smart small household appliances (the shortage of chip supply is gradually alleviated), insurance (the pain of agent reform is weakening, the drag of the real estate industry is bottoming out, and the assets and liabilities are gradually improved at both ends); And the valuation repair market of undervalued blue chips basically established at the end of the policy, mainly focusing on finance, real estate leaders and real estate industry chains (home decoration building materials and kitchen electricity).
(2) cycle crossing: mainly advanced manufacturing industries with sustained prosperity, including electric smart cars, semiconductor materials and production equipment, power semiconductor chip IGBT, digital infrastructure, wind and solar energy storage and UHV power grid, military equipment, carbon neutralization technology, etc; (3) performance improvement category: the middle and lower reaches industries, including “mass cost” and “middle price”, including high-end food and high-end Baijiu, and the manufacturing industry of lithium battery and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) components.
IV. basis for medium-term Market Research and judgment: the cumulative effect of steady growth is gradually emerging. The market or repair at the bottom before the bottom of fundamentals is confirmed. From the perspective of a complete cycle of market adjustment, it has successively experienced “policy bottom – valuation bottom – market bottom – Fundamentals bottom”. At present, it has been adjusted to the bottom grinding stage of valuation, and the structural relatively undervalued and overvalued sectors coexist, The first fully adjusted sector is expected to take the lead in stabilizing and rebounding; At the same time, with the development of counter cyclical regulation and steady growth, the medium-term performance expectation is expected to gradually improve, so as to drive the market index to get rid of the bottom shock deadlock and start a round of repairing the rising market. The cumulative effect of steady growth is gradually emerging, and the market may repair at the bottom before the fundamentals are confirmed.
1. Economic fundamentals: the period of prominent downward pressure in the first quarter
Macro environment judgment: internal triple pressure, external more complex, severe and uncertain. The 21st central economic work conference pointed out that we must see that China’s economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations. Under the impact of the epidemic in the 21st century, the changes in the past century have accelerated, and the external environment has become more complex, severe and uncertain.
We believe that the internal triple pressure is embodied in: first, the demand shrinks. In terms of investment, the growth rate of infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment continues to remain low, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment has continued to decline from more than 20% before 2014 to below 5% at present; Infrastructure investment is subject to the hard constraints of local government budget and leverage ratio, and the saturation of traditional infrastructure investment such as “railway public foundation” has peaked, which has continued to step down to low single digit growth or even negative growth; Due to the peak demand of traditional industries in the upstream and the profit pressure of manufacturing industries in the middle and downstream, the overall investment growth rate of manufacturing industry remains low, which is confirmed by the weakening of medium and long-term loan financing demand reflecting the investment power of enterprises in recent two months.
In terms of consumption, the recovery of Chinese residents’ consumption after the epidemic continued to be lower than expected, and the year-on-year growth rate of total social retail sales has decreased from around 8% before the epidemic to 4-5% in the past two years; The obvious decline of consumption growth is related to the trend factors such as the slowdown of urbanization rate of China’s permanent population and the accelerated aging of population structure. It is also due to the decline of residents’ income growth after the outbreak of the epidemic and the repeated pressure of recurrence of the epidemic in China.
Second, the supply shock is mainly caused by shortages or bottlenecks in the supply of upstream bulk raw materials and energy, the supply of key parts represented by chips and logistics transportation. The causes include the resonance of trade tariff war and scientific and technological sanctions launched by the United States, the spread of global covid-19 epidemic and energy transformation under the global dual carbon goal. The impact of the above raw materials and energy supply disturbed China’s power supply and industrial production in the third quarter, and the shortage of chips has continued to suppress the production and consumption of durable goods such as automobiles, smart phones and small household appliances this year.
Third, the weakening of expectations is mainly reflected in the weakening of enterprise investment confidence and residents’ consumption expectations as mentioned above, and the weakening of expectations or constraints on the regulation effect of counter cyclical policies. How to improve or enhance the expectations of market players will be one of the important considerations for grasping the timing effect of policies.
The external environment is becoming more complex, severe and uncertain, mainly including the protectionism of Global trade and investment, the complex geopolitical situation, the uncertainty of covid-19 strain variation and epidemic situation, as well as the uncertainty of global economic recovery, inflationary pressure and monetary policy adjustment led by the Federal Reserve.
2. The mobilization order for steady growth has been issued. The central economic work conference held in early December pointed out that China’s economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations; The deployment of the 22-year macroeconomic goal is to make steady progress while maintaining stability, promote the steady improvement of the quality and reasonable growth of the economy, and clearly issue a mobilization order for steady growth, requiring all regions and departments to shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, and all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, with appropriate policy force. Recently, Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, said that we should “make good use of investment policies and consumption policy tools and implement the upcoming strategic outline for expanding domestic demand”. It is expected that the steady growth policies and measures led by the strategy for expanding domestic demand will be accelerated one after another.
In terms of macro policies, we should be prudent and effective, and continue to implement an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Among them, active fiscal policies should improve efficiency and pay more attention to accuracy and sustainability; We should ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure and speed up the progress of expenditure. The requirements of the central economic work conference for fiscal expenditure have been changed from “maintaining appropriate expenditure intensity” last year to “ensuring fiscal expenditure intensity and accelerating expenditure progress” this year, and the word “appropriate” has been deleted, further clarifying the requirements that the intensity of fiscal expansion will be increased and the expenditure section will be accelerated. It is estimated that the narrow fiscal deficit ratio may be slightly reduced to 3.2% next year. However, considering the fiscal expenditure balance of about 1.8 trillion yuan this year, the marginal expansion of actual fiscal expenditure in 22 years is positive, laying the foundation for tax reduction and fee reduction and promoting infrastructure investment.
Secondly, a prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. Compared with last year, the words “keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale basically match the economic growth rate, keep the macro leverage ratio basically stable” and “keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level” were deleted; It also indicates that the monetary policy in the past 22 years has paid more attention to flexibility and moderation, and the growth rate of money supply and social finance scale is allowed to rise or increase compared with the growth rate of nominal GDP. At the same time, the macro leverage ratio may decline steadily from 21 years to a slight increase.
For the focus of monetary policy stabilization and loosening, the meeting clearly proposed to guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development. In terms of policy, fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated and linked, and cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined; We will implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand and enhance the endogenous driving force for development. The above requirements of coordination, linkage and organic combination further show that under the 22-year active fiscal policy and accelerating the progress of expenditure, the orientation of monetary policy will also be coordinated and synchronized, loose first and then stable, and continue to reduce the deposit reserve ratio and MLF policy interest rate in the first half of the year or at a reasonable rate.
3. Policy: the end of the real estate policy has been basically realized, and the structural monetary credit policy has been established. The “double maintenance” policy of real estate was put forward in the fourth quarter of last year, and the policy bottom has been basically established. The policies of residential mortgage loans, real estate enterprise development loans and real estate enterprise merger and reorganization loans, pre-sale fund supervision, affordable rental housing related loans are not included in the concentration management of real estate loans, and the real estate loan interest rates in some cities have gradually changed from tight to loose; It is worth noting that in the recently released fourth quarter monetary policy implementation report of the central bank, the previous expression of “maintaining the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policy” is deleted, or it indicates that there are still measures to adjust and loosen the real estate financial policy according to the situation.
Wide monetary structure and wide credit orientation were established. Since July 21, the central bank has comprehensively reduced the reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage points twice, releasing 2.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds to optimize the capital structure of financial institutions, aiming to promote the transmission and reduction of social comprehensive financing costs. At the end of 21, after 20 months, the one-year LPR interest rate was lowered by 5bp to 3.80%, and the monetary policy released the signal of “incremental price reduction”. At the same time, recently, the central bank simultaneously lowered the MLF and Omo policy interest rates by 10bp, lowered the one-year LPR interest rate by 10bp to 3.70%, and lowered the five-year LPR interest rate by 5bp to 4.60%, further guiding the decline of social financing costs. The above operations of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates have established the policy orientation of wide monetary structure and wide credit, aiming to counter cyclical hedge against the pressure of China’s economic slowdown. M2. The growth rate of social finance has stabilized and rebounded successively at the end of 21q2 and Q4.
From the perspective of macro leverage ratio, China’s total leverage ratio decreased by 7.7ppt to 272.5% in the whole year of 21 years; From the perspective of cost reduction effect, the weighted interest rate of 21q4 loan was 4.76%, with a month on month decrease of 24bp and a year-on-year decrease of 27bp; Among them, the enterprise loan interest rate in the whole year of 21 was 4.61%, a significant decrease of 0.69 percentage points compared with 19 years, and the lowest level in more than 40 years of reform and opening up.
In the early stage, the economy continued to slow down and the steady growth policy was relatively restrained. The management mainly launched structural monetary policy tools to support the development of green and low-carbon policy, releasing the structural wide credit signal of taking into account the short-term steady growth and medium and long-term structural adjustment.
With the highlight of the downward pressure on the economy, it is clear that the policy will pay equal attention to the total amount and structure, and make efforts as soon as possible. Recently, the central bank has repeatedly proposed that the policy will be fully, accurately and forward. It has further confirmed that the recent interest rate cut is not the end of this round of policy easing cycle from the three dimensions of aggregate, structure and timing; He stressed the need to expand the monetary policy toolbox, maintain the stability of the total amount and avoid credit collapse, and mentioned that “the decline of macro leverage ratio in recent five quarters has created space for future monetary policy”; The above statements have released the loose orientation that monetary policy is expected to continue to increase.
The fourth quarter monetary policy implementation report of the central bank pointed out that it is necessary to guide financial institutions to effectively expand loan lending, give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, and realize a better combination of stable total amount and excellent structure;
With regard to the RRR reduction, the vice governor of the central bank pointed out that after the two RRR reductions in the early stage, the current average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.4%, which is not high in terms of horizontal and vertical comparison, and the space for further adjustment has become smaller, but there is still a certain space, which can be used according to the economic and financial operation and the needs of macro-control. The above statement also indicates that the reserve requirement can still be lowered in a timely manner in the follow-up and play the role of counter cyclical regulation.
4. Recently, the intensity and rhythm of US dollar interest rate hike have accelerated, but in the medium and long term, it is expected that the impact of this round of US dollar Exit Volume easing policy can be controlled. 1) the hawkish remarks of the chairman of the Federal Reserve have made anti inflation a top priority. The guidelines of the January fed interest Conference on ending taper and starting interest rate increase in March were in line with expectations. Recently, the market has raised the number of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve to 5 times / 150bp, and is expected to start the contraction table before the end of the year. The rapid adjustment of US stocks (the three major US stock indexes fell 10-16% from the previous high) has made a relatively full response to the Fed’s turn to Eagle.
Under the pressure of short-term continuous and rapid adjustment, the market has certain expectations for the release of soothing signals from the Federal Reserve meeting in January. However, after the meeting, the comments of the chairman of the Federal Reserve on the number of interest rate increases and the time point of starting the table contraction were hawkish, pointing out that “there is a lot of room to raise interest rates without threatening the labor market, and it is not ruled out to raise interest rates at each FOMC meeting” “The pace of shrinking the table may be faster than last time”. The above hawkish statements, rather than the soothing remarks expected by the market, are superimposed on the acceleration of the pace of raising interest rates under the continuous intensification of US inflation recently, or make us stocks continue to release the pressure of shock and falling expectations recently.
The recent hawkish stance of the Fed chairman reflects the Fed’s concern about the continued high level of US inflation. After the economic recovery and employment improvement, anti inflation has become the top priority of the current US government.
2) the market focuses on three major issues: the rhythm of interest rate increase, the starting time of table contraction and the rhythm of table contraction. The market’s focus on the Fed’s current round of tightening policy is on three major issues: the rhythm of interest rate increase, the starting time of table contraction and the rhythm of table contraction. The January meeting formulated guidelines for the decision-making of table reduction and announced that the principle of table reduction is “mainly by adjusting the securities held in the open market account of the system and promising to gradually reduce the securities holdings of the Federal Reserve in a predictable way”. However, at present, the Federal Reserve has not made a decision on the timing and rhythm of table reduction, which will be made after the interest rate increase in March.
As for the number of interest rate increases during the year, according to Powell’s “there is a lot of room to raise interest rates, and it is not excluded to raise interest rates at each FOMC meeting”, the number or range of interest rate increases during the year may exceed the consensus expectation of the current market;
As for the start-up time point of the table reduction, according to the benchmark that the chairman of the Federal Reserve “may be faster than the last time”, it is expected that the FOMC meeting in March will give guidelines on the time point and speed of the table reduction, which is expected to be announced in advance to the interest rate meeting in June, and the start-up time point of the table reduction is earlier than the end of the year previously expected by the market; With regard to the speed of table reduction, with reference to the monthly reduction of US $50 billion during the previous round of table reduction, accounting for about 1% of the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, and based on the current size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet of nearly US $9 trillion, it is expected that the monthly scale of this round of table reduction will be more than US $90 billion.
3) in the medium and long term, it is expected that the impact of the current round of US dollar exit policy on the Chinese market will be controllable. Under the pressure of the new round of US dollar liquidity reduction and interest rate recovery trend, what is the potential impact on China’s capital flow, RMB exchange rate and financial market?
In particular, how does it compare with the last round of broad period of US dollar exit?
Earlier, pan Gongsheng, vice governor of the central bank, delivered a keynote speech on “quantitative easing policy: exit and spillover” at the annual meeting of Financial Street Holdings Co.Ltd(000402) forum in 2021, focusing on the exit of loose monetary policy of major developed economies in response to the epidemic and its possible impact on the international financial market, cross-border capital flows of emerging economies and China’s foreign exchange market.
Vice President pan generally believes that China’s foreign exchange market is controllable under the influence of this round of Fed policy shift, cross-border capital is expected to continue to flow in two directions, and the RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.
The main judgment basis includes: first, in this round of Fed monetary policy tightening cycle, the economic growth difference and monetary policy difference between the United States and non US economies are less than that in the last round of tightening cycle, which is expected to limit the appreciation space of the US dollar. During the withdrawal of the last round of quantitative easing policy, the economic growth of the United States was significantly better than that of Europe (the year-on-year GDP growth of the United States / euro area in 13-15 was + 1.8 / – 0.9, + 2.3 / + 1.4, + 2.7 / + 2.0% respectively), while the current growth of the United States and Europe is more synchronous (the IMF latest estimates that the GDP growth of the United States / euro area in 21-24 will be + 6.0 / + 5.1%, + 5.2 / + 4.4%, + 2.2 / + 2.3%, + 1.7 / + 1.9% respectively), The economic growth gap between Europe and the United States in the next three years is significantly lower than that before and in the middle of the last round of dollar tightening. Meanwhile, in terms of poor monetary policy, the last round of the Fed’s reduction in bond purchase coincided with the opening of easing by the European Central Bank, but the monetary policies of the US and European central banks are generally in the same direction this round.
2. At present, China’s economy is in a better cyclical position. China’s solid economic fundamentals will be the basic guarantee for China’s foreign exchange market to deal with external shocks. During the last round of austerity, China’s economy is in the stage of superposition of three phases: growth shift, structural adjustment and early policy digestion, facing great downward pressure; At present, China’s economy maintains a recovery trend, the main macro indicators are in a reasonable range, and employment is basically stable. In 201316, the year-on-year growth rate of China’s real GDP was + 7.8%, + 7.4%, + 7.0% and + 6.9% respectively, and the economic growth center moved downward year by year; The average annual growth rate of 2021 is expected to be + 5.5% compared with that of 19 years. At the same time, according to the latest prediction of the IMF, China’s GDP in 22-24 years will be + 5.6%, + 5.3% and + 5.3% year-on-year respectively, and the growth center will basically remain stable around + 5.5%.
Third, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate has also been enhanced, which can better play the role of independent regulation. During the last round of tightening, the RMB exchange rate appreciated unilaterally in the early stage, and the foreign exchange market accumulated a certain depreciation pressure. From the end of 2013 to the middle of the period before the US dollar tightening, the US dollar index rose sharply by more than 30% to around 103. During this period, the RMB exchange rate depreciated by more than 13% against the US dollar to 7.0. In recent years, the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism has been continuously improved, the two-way floating flexibility of the exchange rate has been enhanced, the counter cyclical macro Prudential management tools have been continuously improved, and the risk response experience has been richer.
Fourth, optimize the structure of China’s foreign investment and enhance the stability of China’s capital inflow. Before the last round of austerity, China’s foreign capital inflow was mainly traditional financing foreign debt, which was sensitive to exchange rate changes. From 2015 to 2016, China experienced concentrated deleveraging of foreign debt; During the period from the middle of 2014 to the beginning of 2017, when the US dollar appreciated sharply and the RMB exchange rate depreciated, the scale of China’s foreign exchange reserves decreased by nearly US $1 trillion to US $3.0 trillion. In recent years, with the implementation of the two-way opening-up system of China’s capital market, China’s foreign debt inflow is dominated by foreign long-term investors investing in RMB bonds, with high stability; At the same time, the current “going out” of Chinese enterprises is more rational, and foreign direct investment is expected to be relatively stable in the future. Under the optimization of the above capital inflow and outflow structure, it is expected that the impact of US dollar tightening on China’s capital flows will be limited.
Biden government needs to expand fiscal spending in the next five years. In the medium-term outlook, considering that the debt leverage ratio of the U.S. government has climbed to a record high above 150%, and the Biden government is vigorously promoting loose fiscal policy to boost U.S. infrastructure, new energy and manufacturing investment, under the above high interest rate repayment pressure and the demand for huge government bond financing, it may force the Federal Reserve to maintain a loose monetary policy of full bond purchase and low interest rate in the medium term. Therefore, in the medium term, even if US employment returns to normal and core inflation is higher than the desired central level, the rhythm of US dollar interest rate increase in the future may be slower than the current market expectation, which mainly depends on the momentum of US economic recovery and the recovery of supply chain in the future.
Referring to the latest round of US dollar interest rate hike cycle from 2015 to 2018, the pace of interest rate hike is slow first and then fast. In 15-18 years, interest rates are raised 1, 1, 3 and 4 times respectively, and the strategy of “exploratory observation – effect verification – rhythm adjustment” is adopted. Under the pressure of the high rise of the leverage ratio of the U.S. government, and considering that the Federal Reserve has gradually become the main subscription force of U.S. Treasury bonds, the dollar passive easing will be forced in the medium term to maintain the “one high and one low” of the Federal Reserve, that is, to maintain the relatively high balance sheet and the low interest rate of the U.S. dollar. At that time, the U.S. dollar index and the probability rate of U.S. bond interest rate will remain weak; So as to provide support logic for the steady rise of RMB exchange rate and the net inflow of overseas funds to allocate the valuation of Chinese stocks, bonds and A-share core assets.
V. configuration suggestions: bearish index and deep excavation of structure
Looking forward to 2022, the global covid-19 vaccination rate will increase more evenly, and specific drugs are expected to be listed one after another. However, the containment of covid-19 virus mutation and rapid transmission is still uncertain, or it may be decided that the repair of global supply chain and the recovery of economy and society will be relatively slow, and the global economic growth in 22 years will be slower than that in 21 years; Under inflationary pressure, the macro policies of developed economies will gradually return to normal. The pace of the Fed’s exit from the super loose Trilogy “reducing the scale of bond purchase – raising interest rates – reducing the Fed’s balance sheet” may be significantly faster than the previous round and market expectations.
In 22 years, China’s economic growth is expected to slow down to around 5.3%, the PPI of industrial inflation will fall significantly after peaking, the CPI of consumer inflation will rebound slightly, the performance growth rate of all a listed companies will quickly fall from around 20% in 21 years to around 5% of the low single digit, the profits of upstream cycle industries may decline significantly, and the profits of middle and downstream consumption and manufacturing industries are expected to improve moderately.
In the past 22 years, A-Shares faced the market environment of “downward fundamentals and stable policies”. Considering the low single digit growth of overall performance, the valuation of the market index is near the reasonable quantile of 50% in recent ten years. It is expected that the reasonable return of the index for the whole year will be 5-10%. It is necessary to be bearish on the index, dig deep into structural opportunities, and grasp bargain hunting, which is in line with China’s economic innovation and upgrading Advanced manufacturing companies with global advantages and large consumer brand companies with improved consumption margin after the epidemic.
1) deeply explore opportunities for epidemic repair or policy correction after consumption of durable goods and services. The impact, recovery degree and timing of various industries in different stages of epidemic outbreak and prevention and control are different. Among them, the consumption of options and services restricted by offline consumption scenarios, or the consumption of durable goods whose production and sales are blocked due to the shortage of global supply chain (mainly chips), are generally seriously impacted and slow to recover. With the rise of global vaccination rate and the listing of specific drugs in the past 22 years, the consumption of durable goods and services under the epidemic, including cars, transportation airports, catering hotels, advertising cinemas and other sectors, is expected to be gradually released; Meanwhile, at the end of the 21st century, the policy correction of tight real estate finance and one size fits all control of energy consumption is expected to boost the valuation and repair market of undervalued sectors such as real estate, home decoration, furniture and household appliances.
2) medium and long-term bargain hunting allocation of technology stocks with upward performance. Under the strategic promotion of China’s large cycle and leading high-quality development with scientific and technological innovation, we will improve the stability, competitiveness and modernization of the supply chain of the science and technology industry chain, pay more attention to making up for weaknesses and forging long boards, and are expected to focus on new energy vehicles and intelligent driving, wind and solar energy storage and ultra-high voltage power network, military equipment, innovative medicine, semiconductor chips, digital infrastructure, 5g + applications Leading scientific and technological leaders or advanced manufacturing led by industrial Internet, artificial intelligence and digital economy, the performance boom is expected to exceed expectations; After the rapid correction of the above sectors at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the technology stocks with basically reasonable and safe valuation have bargain hunting allocation value.
Risk tip: the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to deteriorate, the Fed’s policy is tightened more than expected, the momentum of economic recovery is significantly weakened, and the overseas market fluctuates sharply.
