Introduction to this report:
We believe that the bottom of the real estate chain may gradually become clear, recommend the waterproof material industry and glass industry with the best pattern, and cement will enter the value range.
Summary:
Cement: the national cement market price fluctuated and adjusted, with a month on month increase of 0.19%. The price increases are mainly in some areas of Hunan, Chongqing, Guizhou and Hubei, with a range of 20-40 yuan / ton; The price drop areas are Beijing, Hebei, Ganzhou, Jiangxi and Pingliang, Gansu, with a range of 20-30 yuan / ton.
Glass: the average price of float glass in China was 2454 yuan, up 55 yuan from last week. China’s float glass market is basically stable. After the preparation of goods in the middle and lower reaches in the early stage, the inventory held by the middle and lower reaches is relatively sufficient. The medium and short-term market mainly digests social inventory, and pays attention to the order receiving situation of downstream processing plants in the later stage.
Glass fiber: the mainstream market price of alkali free tank kiln roving is stable, and most factories have little intention of price adjustment.
Recently, the demand of China’s roving market has started fairly well, and most products just need to be picked up and maintained. With little change in the short-term supply side, the demand support is OK, and the inventory of most factories is reduced slightly within the month. The trading of electronic yarn market recovered fairly, and most downstream PCB manufacturers started to increase gradually.
Price of main raw materials: IPE Brent crude oil futures (USD 98.57/barrel, mom + 4.96/barrel), fuel oil (Shandong) (3443 yuan / ton, mom + 273 yuan / ton). Heavy soda ash (2700 yuan / ton, mom + 150 yuan / ton). The closing price of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port was 740 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month.
Building materials industry strategy:
First, the price of clinker in East China has experienced the third round of increase, with an increase range of 20 yuan / ton. After the festival, the price of clinker in East China has increased for three consecutive rounds, and now it has reached 440450 yuan / ton; We judge that under the background of the continuous rise of clinker price, the cement price is expected to enter the rising channel in early March. In terms of real estate, the bottom of the policy is becoming more and more clear. After the central bank cut the five-year LPR in January, many places reduced the mortgage interest rate, and Nanning, Chongqing, Ganzhou, Heze and other places successively announced to reduce the down payment ratio; In addition, according to the financial Associated Press, the opinions on the supervision of national commercial housing pre-sale funds have been issued recently, which is also expected to correct the problem of too strict supervision of pre-sale funds. Combined with the partial deregulation of the real estate financing end, the cash flow pressure of real estate enterprises is expected to be significantly reduced.
We are optimistic about steady growth. Infrastructure investment in 2022q1 is expected to exceed market expectations. We recommend Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , China Liansu, which have greater infrastructure flexibility; Cement stocks recommend Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , China building materials, Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) .
Second, we believe that waterproof is the best track for the prosperity and pattern of consumer building materials, and continue to recommend Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , China Liansu, Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Dare Power Dekor Home Co.Ltd(000910) ; Continue to recommend global leaders in manufacturing China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Xinyi Glass and Xinyi solar energy;
