On February 24, the national development and Reform Commission issued the document on further improving the coal market price formation mechanism.
1. Policy content: the medium and long-term transaction price range of 5500 kcal underground coal in QinGang is adjusted to 570770 yuan / ton (including tax price), and the new price center is 670 yuan / ton, which is 30 yuan / ton lower than 550850 yuan / ton and 700 yuan / ton in the previous exposure draft.
2, policy background: 1, this week, the official account of Shaanxi coal electric power was released. Recently, five power plants in Datang Yuncheng, Shimen, Xinyang, Huayu and Lueyang were transferred to Shaanxi coal group. 2. This week, the closing price of 5500kc in QinGang increased by 12% from 995 yuan / ton to 1113 yuan / ton. At the weekend, Shenhua’s monthly long-term association coal price also rose, and the inventory of coastal power plants in eight provinces decreased significantly on a weekly basis. 3. The year-on-year growth rate of daily coal consumption increased from 17% last week to 24% this week (according to the website of the national development and Reform Commission: after the Spring Festival holiday, enterprises have resumed work and production + cooling in some parts of the south. As of February 21, the national cumulative power generation was 1143.4 billion kwh, yoy 5.1%). After the Winter Olympics last week, production continued to recover this week. We think that if the weather gets warmer next week, the demand may be easier to judge.
3. Future prediction: the long-term agreement price of electricity and coal has not been finally adjusted, and it is very difficult for the power plant and coal plant to sign a long-term agreement with 100%. In last week’s “decline in power consumption growth vs increase in daily coal consumption in eight provinces”, we believed that “ensuring the profitability of power plants is the top priority of the economy at this stage, the coal supply policy is also making efforts, the price control measures are also being promoted, and the improvement of the profitability of the thermal power industry will be the trend of this year and next”.
There are many increments in energy supply, and there are still uncertainties in hydropower: 1. According to wind, the flow of the Three Gorges Reservoir Station: in January, the inflow is yoy-11.7%, and the outflow is yoy-7.1%. As of February 22, YY + 2.25% of the total stock in volume. 2. National Development and Reform Commission: on February 20, the national coal output was 12.18 million tons (we calculated that the annual output was nearly 4.4 billion tons, and the national output was 4.07 billion tons last year), which has returned to the average daily output level in the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, the output of Shanxi Province and Shaanxi Province has remained at a high level of about 3.5 million tons and 2 million tons respectively. Inner Mongolia has accelerated the resumption of production after the snowfall in recent days, and the output has exceeded 3.7 million tons.
3. According to the Northeast network, Russia plans to increase its coal export to China from 50 million tons to 100 million tons.
Both energy storage and CCUs need to be developed, and opportunities for new power systems continue. 1. According to People.Cn Co.Ltd(603000) , the State Grid strives to increase the installed capacity of pumping and storage power stations in the company’s business area from 26.3 million kW to 100 million KW by 2030, CAGR + 18%; Electrochemical energy storage increased from 3 million kW to 100 million KW, CAGR + 55%. 2. Polaris carbon housekeeper quoted that according to the International Energy Agency, the cost of CCUs per ton of CO2 will be reduced from US $65 to about US $45 in 2025. According to the CO2 emission of 1100g per kilowatt hour and the exchange rate of 6.3rmb/usd, the converted per kilowatt hour cost will be reduced from 0.45 to 0.3 yuan We believe that: 1. Energy storage is an important and indispensable part of the future development of new energy. It is suggested to pay attention to: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) ; 2. CCUs has great development space. The price of thermal power rises enough to cover CCUs, which may be the ultimate form of carbon emission reduction. Pure wind and solar energy storage cannot ensure the safety of the system.
At the stage of economic transformation, the attribute or embodiment of power consumption should be repaired. We believe that the economic importance of electricity security is huge. We think that the economic importance of electricity security is huge, and the policy is increasingly biasetoward thermal power companies, where electricity is both undervalueand the advantage of determining growth. Power is both underestimation and the advantage of determining growth. It’s suggested to focus on: thermal power transformation ( Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\); New energy ( China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Longyuan Power, CGN new energy, Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , Datang new energy); Hydropower ( China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) , Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) , Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co.Ltd(600674) , Guizhou Qianyuan Power Co.Ltd(002039) ); Nuclear power ( China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) ); Power grid ( Chongqing Three Gorges Water Conservancy And Electric Power Co.Ltd(600116) , Chongqing Fuling Electric Power Industrial Co.Ltd(600452) ).
Risk warning. (1) The expectation of economic growth and monetary policy lead to great fluctuations in market style. (2) The direction of power marketization is determined, but the development time is difficult to determine.
