Observation period. We still emphasize adhering to the blue chip style of the whole year. At present, we still need to stick to the main line of stable growth. However, after the policy diffusion, the style of value and growth will be more balanced. It is suggested to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of continuous performance to good stocks.
This semi monthly report combs the potential high growth stocks in the first quarter from bottom to top for investors' reference.
This issue (2022 / 3 / 1-2022 / 3 / 15, the same below) is the 46th issue of Liangma combination semi monthly report. This product is updated in the first and middle of the month. The conventional stock pool includes the preferred combination of bright horse trends that can reflect the recent industry highlights (20) and the long-term configuration combination of bright horse with long-term configuration value (20). We will also sort out the stock pool for recent hot topics, and attach the monthly recommended portfolio of strategies at the end.
Focus of this issue: focus on potential high growth stocks in the first quarter. The policy bottom, market bottom and sentiment bottom are confirmed in turn. A shares will enter the observation period of external disturbance and internal fundamentals in March. We still emphasize adhering to the blue chip style of the whole year. At present, we still need to stick to the main line of stable growth, but after the policy diffusion, the style of value and growth will be more balanced.
Considering that the valuation adjustment of A-Shares has been relatively sufficient since the beginning of the year, we believe that the sustainability of the annual report and the first quarterly report will become the core influencing factor of the valuation repair in the next stage. This semi monthly report combs the potential high growth stocks of the first quarterly report from bottom to top for investors' reference.
Update of strategic view: the peak of geographical impact has passed, and the "three bottoms" confirm the balanced allocation. The high point of geo risk impact may have passed, and the risk disturbance is mainly reflected in the emotional level. March will enter the preliminary effect observation period of stable growth policy. It is expected that the follow-up policies will continue to increase and enter the centralized development period. The "three bottoms" of A-Shares have been confirmed in turn. It is suggested to maintain a high position, stick to the main line of stable growth, and adhere to the balanced allocation of industry and style, Layout around "two low positions". First of all, the peak impact of geopolitical risks on the global market may have passed, the possibility of further proliferation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is relatively low, and the disturbance impact is expected to weaken. Secondly, the resumption of six geopolitical conflicts in history shows that the geopolitical conflict does not change the medium-term trend of China US stock market, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not expected to change the medium-term trend of A-share improvement and medium-term adjustment of US stock market. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25bps in March, which is lower than the previous expectation. Thirdly, in March, the national "two sessions" are expected to further strengthen the expectation of stable growth policy and clarify the annual GDP growth target of 5.5%. The policy will continue to increase and enter the centralized development period. Finally, the "three bottoms" of A-Shares have been confirmed in turn. The high point of external impact disturbance may have passed, and the internal fundamentals are expected to enter the repair channel with the support of policies.
summary of important opinions of industry group of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research department:
1) oil: maintaining the oil price center in 2022 will be significantly higher than the prediction in 2021. It is optimistic that the basic pattern of tight supply is expected to support Brent's oil price to remain above $65 or even $70 / barrel in the next 2-3 years. At the same time, high oil prices are conducive to the release of the performance of relevant industrial chains.
2) new energy vehicles: Tesla 4680 battery has achieved mass production and is expected to lead the industrial transformation. Recommend 4680 battery enterprises with leading layout and suppliers of high nickel, silicon carbon, lithium supplement, carbon nanotubes, lifsi, structural parts and other main and auxiliary materials benefiting from the increased demand of 4680 battery. It is recommended to pay attention to laser equipment and stamping equipment suppliers.
3) power equipment and new energy: photovoltaic 2022q1 is expected to be not light in the off-season, and the global installed capacity in 2022 is expected to exceed the expectation; Wind power bidding continues to exceed expectations, reflecting the continuous improvement of the industry prosperity. Land wind is expected to rebound significantly in 2022. We are optimistic about the restoration of wind power landscape and the export opportunities of wind turbines in overseas markets; The continuous introduction of energy storage policies and the reduction of costs are expected to promote the continuous outbreak of energy storage industry.
4) building materials: due to the good availability of funds for infrastructure projects and the ideal recovery of construction progress, the cement price rose by 0.2% month on month last week. At the beginning of the start-up of demand, the price entered the recovery channel driven by the contraction of supply and cost.
5) iron and steel: under the current good situation of iron and steel supply and demand pattern, it is expected that the marginal benefits of supply and demand brought by the peak season will be more prominent, and the inflection point of iron and steel in the inventory removal stage will come earlier than the same period of previous years.
6) coal: since the beginning of the year, the performance of the sector has been supported by factors such as stable and positive prices of non electric coal, sharp rise in overseas energy prices and relaxation of real estate policies. These factors may still support the medium-term performance of the sector in the future.
Risk factors: China's economic recovery is slower than expected; The global epidemic situation is repeated and the vaccination is less than expected.
