key investment points:
1. After the disappearance of high growth bonus, the development of the whole industry is gentle, the differentiation is accelerated, and the leading effect is intensified;
2. Weak short-term consumption and repeated epidemics have led to some pressure on the store operation end;
3. Channel reform has achieved initial results;
financial Associated Press (Chongqing, reporter Huangtian) news, stock price and performance have experienced a downturn for more than half a year, and the leisure food sector has finally warmed up since the third quarter. Many listed companies have opened the bottleneck of income growth in the past year. Investors can't help asking, will the leisure snacks with a temporary scenery in 2019 usher in a recovery?
According to the comprehensive interview information of the financial Associated Press, after the high growth of the snack food industry under the shadow of the epidemic, it will continue to move towards great differentiation next year. Affected by the channel reform of major giants and the emergence of new products in 2021, the whole industry is expected to achieve marginal improvement.
the epidemic situation is both "dangerous" and "machine"
According to the data of China Food Industry Yearbook, the scale of leisure snacks in China is expected to exceed 4 trillion yuan in 2025. However, since 2019, leisure and snack enterprises have piled up and listed, and relevant enterprises continue to gain capital overweight. The market trend of this trillion scale continues to differentiate or is inevitable.
Tianyan survey shows that in the first eight months of 2021, there have been more than 10 financing events in the field of leisure food, with a total amount of more than 4.5 billion yuan, 15 times the total financing amount in 2020. In addition, Wei long, a "hot one brother" with a valuation of up to 60 billion yuan and a crazy gathering of Hillhouse, Tencent, Yunfeng fund and Sequoia Capital, is likely to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in 2020. On November 14 this year, Wei long passed the listing hearing of the Hong Kong stock exchange only two days after submitting his statement again.
"From the situation in 2021, the development of leisure snacks has tended to be flat. Affected by various adverse factors, the high growth dividend has disappeared." An industry person told reporters that it is expected that the industry reshuffle will continue next year and the process of industry differentiation will accelerate. "The Matthew effect of the strong will be more obvious in the leisure snack track."
Zhiyan consulting also said that with the leisure snack line entering the era of medium growth, the investment threshold for new entrants is raised, and the number of brands is expected to remain low and stable; The leading capital has obvious advantages, the scale effect of brand publicity will be enhanced, and the leading effect will be intensified.
In such an environment, the leisure snack industry in the post epidemic era also has many opportunities to sprout. "Although the epidemic has affected the overall consumption environment, consumers have reduced going out. The consumption scene and consumption frequency formed by this are good for leisure food." The above industry insiders believe that.
According to the analysis of Three Squirrels Inc(300783) (300783. SZ) close to the company, under the epidemic, new channels such as live broadcasting, e-commerce and community group purchase are emerging, and the company is also actively entering these channels and platforms. Secondly, the epidemic has given further attention to health problems, which is of certain significance to the cultivation of consumers' minds.
According to the analysis of China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) food team, under the repeated epidemic situation, the passenger flow of transportation hub stores fluctuates greatly, but the single store of community and street stores recovers well and has stronger anti risk ability. The leaders of halogen products represented by juewe and Zhou Heiya accelerate the expansion of community and street stores, and juewe launched various store activities to drive the recovery of single stores. Zhou Heiya has significantly optimized the store structure since this year, The proportion of retail sales of non transportation hub stores has increased to nearly 90%, which has improved compared with the era of epidemic.
Cinda Securities believes that the weak short-term consumption and repeated expectations of the epidemic have led to some pressure on the store operation end, but the initial investment and operation cost of a single store of leisure halogen products are relatively low, and the advantages of anti risk ability appear.
channel reform promotes leisure food or welcomes marginal improvement
In recent years, the major leisure food giants have increased their omni-channel layout and reform, and set off a price rise in the second half of this year. The previously depressed leisure food may usher in marginal improvement.
In terms of channel layout, the above analysts believe that there will be three trends for the development of channels by the major leisure and snack giants in the future: "integrated operation of online and offline, mutual integration of online and offline resources, and complementary short boards of online and offline." basically, all snack enterprises are doing according to this trend, Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) (603719. SH) is well balanced as a whole, Three Squirrels Inc(300783) due to large performance fluctuations, it has spent a lot of money to strengthen offline channels in recent years, while Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) (603777. SH) is to strengthen online channels.
Three Squirrels Inc(300783) people close to the company said that the number of offline stores will be controlled at about 1000 this year. One of the company's key methods is the offline distribution market, focusing on nuts in the early stage to establish distribution channels, and introducing other selected snack sub brands into the distribution system in the later stage. In October this year, Zhang Liaoyuan, the founder of Three Squirrels Inc(300783) , told the blue whale finance reporter that the offline distribution channel is still the mainstream channel of food. It is the mainstream channel of Three Squirrels Inc(300783) from 1 to 10. In the future, offline, we will strive to achieve 30% market share and create another 10 billion in distribution in the next five years.
Under this strategy, the above people believe that the company's profit performance so far this year is still good. The third quarterly report shows that the net profit attributable to the parent company is 442 million, a year-on-year increase of 67.35%. For the price rise of nuts and other raw materials since August, the above-mentioned people believe that the impact is limited, "Due to the company's strategic reserves, there is still room for controlling the cost of raw materials under the advantage of scale, but the company will raise the price of some nut products recently. The price increase of some products may not be very strong for consumers, because our products are mostly sold in combination."
While Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) moves more in the market segment, and offline channels seem to have a retreat trend. People close to the company told the financial Associated Press, "under the influence of the epidemic, some stores have been closed. The target rate of net increase of 400 offline stores this year can not be completed. There is no problem in opening 600 new stores."
Previously Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) relevant people told reporters that the current children's snack brand "xiaoshixian" developed 21 new products in the first half of the year, with omni-channel terminal sales of 180 million yuan, while the brand "good product flying" for fitness people and the good product tea break "tbreak" for office people are being cultivated.
This year Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) which has optimized the dealer channel has also made drastic adjustments directly in the organizational structure. In July this year, Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) adjusted the business unit to a category center, delegated the power of the business unit to each category Bu, and adjusted the sales command to a sales Iron Army. At the same time, the overseas business was independent and an overseas business unit was established.
People close to the company said that in addition to the organizational structure adjustment, the company is still making great efforts to sink the channel this year and plans to exceed 10 billion in sales revenue in the next 2-3 years. At the performance presentation meeting at the beginning of the year, the company said that it currently has about 400000 terminals and will reach one million terminals in the next three to five years. A special project team has been established to promote this work.
In addition, the reporter noted that as of the first half of this year, Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) had opened 13136 stores in the mainland, with a net increase of 737 in the first half of this year; Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) as of September 30, 2021, it has 2770 offline stores, with a net increase of 43 in the first three quarters; Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) said it would speed up the layout of new channels such as BC store system, community group purchase and online live broadcasting, and launch customized products in combination with channel characteristics.
The marginal improvement brought by all players' omni-channel expansion and reform seems to have been reflected in the recent financial reports. According to the third quarterly report, Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) achieved a revenue of 2.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.89%, and a net profit of 123 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.01%. Three Squirrels Inc(300783) achieved a revenue of 1.809 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.59%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 90 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.29%; The third quarter revenue of Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (002557. SZ) increased by 10.71% year-on-year, and the net profit increased by 13.81% year-on-year. Moreover, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that the price increase in Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) October has been fully implemented in November, and the annual performance of next year will benefit.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) the food research team believes that the recovery rate of mass product demand in the third quarter is slower than previously expected, and the comprehensive recovery is expected to continue to wait. Under the uncertain cost pressure, it is suggested to focus on the core leader with strengthened competitive advantage and accelerate the clearing of the industry to seize the market share. Q4 is expected to focus on adjusting channels and focus more on the coming year. If the industry demand recovers comprehensively, the revenue growth improves, or the cost side ushers in an inflection point, the price increase effect will be fully released and the profit elasticity will be greater. It is expected that the stock price will usher in another wave of market driven by performance.
(Financial Associated Press)
