key investment points:
1. With the mutual penetration of the sphere of influence of beer giants, the regional pattern of enterprise advantages may change;
2. In the future, with the implementation of consumption tax reform, beer prices will be further pushed up;
3. Based on the upgrading of consumers' health and taste needs, refined beer will become the future trend;
financial Associated Press (Chengdu, reporter Xiong Jianan, trainee reporter Xiao Yajie) news , with the upgrading of consumption in recent years, consumers' demand for high-end products is increasing day by day. Along with this trend, major beer enterprises have adjusted their product structure and laid out the high-end market. On the channel side, relevant analysts told the financial associated press that in the future, it is expected that there will be multiple brands in a market, and the advantageous regional pattern formed for a long time will be broken; In terms of new products, based on the upgrading of consumers' health and taste needs, refined beer will become the general trend next year; At the same time, with the implementation of consumption tax reform, beer prices will be further pushed up.
mutual infiltration, the pattern of separatist regimes may change
After long-term development and industry competition, the pattern of China's beer industry has been basically determined. In terms of performance, the beer market has been firmly occupied by five Giants: Budweiser Asia Pacific (01876. HK), China Resources beer (00291. HK), Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (600600. SH), Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) (000729. SZ), Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (600132. SH).
Although the overall pattern has been relatively stable and the probability of a large-scale national scuffle is small, the market competition in some areas is becoming more and more intense. With the recent large-scale southward movement of Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) and the melee of close combat between beer giants, the era of separatist rule may change again.
Yang Chengping, a wine industry expert of financial associated press Fengwang, told reporters, "in the future, the dominance of a certain market will be broken, but the overall pattern will not change. It is less likely to re allocate market share, but the market of each beer enterprise will begin to penetrate into each other."
The reporter noted that China Resources, which has an advantage in the three northeast provinces, Southwest Guizhou, Sichuan and East China provinces such as Zhejiang and Anhui, is continuing to seize the markets of Guangdong, Beijing, Shanghai and Shandong, and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) known as the "King along the Yellow River" continues to advance into the markets of Guizhou, Yunnan and Northeast China.
The above beer giants compete for markets within each other's sphere of influence. At the same time, it also involves the advantageous areas of other beer enterprises. Nowadays, the smoke of gunpowder is rising among beer giants, and their advantageous territory is frequently challenged by foreign invaders.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that East China, South China and other regions have become places for strategists, and their competition is more intense. According to the data, the cumulative output of beer enterprises above Designated Size in 2019 was 37.653 million kiloliters. Among them, Shandong Province ranks first with the output of 4.843 million kiloliters, and the provinces with the output ranking second to fifth are Guangdong, Henan, Sichuan and Zhejiang respectively.
Yang Chengping told reporters: "at present, international beer enterprises occupy a major share in high-end beer in East China and South China. Now it depends on how Chinese brands and enterprises controlled by international brands should expand."
Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) relevant people also told reporters, "East and South China, namely the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, have a strong degree of economic development, acceptance of high-end products and their own consumption ability. In the process of promoting high-end consumption, they have a more high-end basis of economic consumption than other regions, so the competition for them will be more intense."
accelerated high-end products and consumption tax reform will further push up prices
At present, the high-end beer seems to be in the initial stage. The financial Associated Press reporter found that at present, the main market share of beer giants is still concentrated in medium and low-end beer. Among them, Budweiser Asia Pacific is ahead in the high-end process, with 38% of high-end wines above 10 yuan, followed by Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) and China Resources beer.
But the upscale of beer is accelerating. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, since 2013, the sales proportion of economic beer (less than 5 yuan) in the beer industry has continued to decline to 71.2%, and medium and high-grade beer has maintained an annual growth of about 10% in recent years. Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) it is predicted that the overall ton price of beer in China has at least 15% upward space.
During the year, China Resources beer took the lead in launching the super high-end product "Li", with a price of 999 yuan / 2 bottles; Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) also put forward the strategic objectives of adjusting structure and improving cost-effectiveness.
Yang Chengping told the financial Associated Press: "the high-end of beer is the voice of the whole industry next year. From the current high-end situation of beer enterprises, there will be more investment in the high-end market next year. There are two reasons, namely profit and market demand."
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) the research report pointed out that with the promotion of high-end industry, consumers' independent choice has been continuously improved. Channels are more and more difficult to be "locked", and consumers' bargaining power is also continuously improving between channels and consumers. At this time, the channel is facing reconstruction and needs to capture consumers through richer product matrix and brand publicity.
For the product structure layout, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) relevant people told the financial associated press that the company has been upgrading the product structure. In terms of high-end products, the company has about 3-5 products launched to the market every year; In terms of medium and low-end, with the increase of beer price, the low-end is also constantly upgrading.
People close to Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) told the financial associated press that the high-end of products is mainly through the adjustment of product structure. Medium and low-end products maintain the original sales strength. As a whole, they will focus on large single products such as "U8" and "V10", and will also expand the output of large single products in the future.
In addition, like Baijiu, consumption tax has always been the "sword of Damour and Chris" in the industry. If the consumption tax reform falls to the ground, it will have a huge impact on the industry.
It is understood that the beer tax rate is a fixed tax rate. If the ex factory price of each ton of beer is more than 3000 yuan (3000 yuan, excluding value-added tax), the unit tax is 250 yuan per ton; If the ex factory price of beer per ton is less than 3000 yuan, the unit tax is 220 yuan per ton. The unit tax of self-made beer in entertainment industry and catering industry is 250 yuan per ton.
However, at present, the reform direction of consumption tax will move to the channel end. Liu Yi, director of the Department of finance of the school of economics of Peking University, analyzed that in the past, consumption tax was levied in the production link, and the tax base was the ex factory price. After the collection link was moved back, the tax base became the wholesale price and retail price. Coupled with the game between upstream and downstream enterprises in the production chain of taxable consumer goods, the price of consumer goods may be affected, which will regulate consumers' consumption behavior.
It is not difficult to see from the performance trend in the previous article that the sales volume of beer enterprises has gradually decreased in recent years, which proves that the industry has shrunk and adjusted, and manufacturers have begun to upgrade their products and raise prices. Yang Chengping said that in the future, with the implementation of the consumption tax reform and the rise in the price of raw materials, the price of the beer industry will be further pushed up. The relevant listed companies only said that they had not received the information determined by the consumption tax reform and could not reply temporarily.
industrial light beer has a headache? Craft or become the next breakthrough
In addition to the high-end of existing products, the introduction of new products conforming to the development trend is also another direction to seize consumers. The reporter found that refined beer may be the next breakthrough. Yang Chengping told the financial Associated Press: "based on the needs of consumer groups for health and taste, young consumer groups of refined beer like it very much, and a trend has been formed. There will be refined beer houses in many big cities."
"I've bought fine wine to drink recently." A consumer who likes wine tasting told the financial Associated Press, "in the past, the degree of drinking industrial light beer was low. If you don't pay attention to it, you will drink too much and swell your stomach, and you will have a headache the next day. However, fine brewing is different. There are few bubbles, you won't swell your stomach, and the degree is slightly higher. You won't drink too much and you won't have a headache."
It is understood that the headache after drinking beer is mainly caused by the carbon dioxide contained in beer. The carbon dioxide and alcohol content in beer are transformed by yeast eating a small amount of powdered sugar contained in malt. A small amount of malt is used in industrial beer, and rice, starch, syrup and other auxiliary materials are used to replace the sugar powder contained in malt. Although the auxiliary materials can reduce the cost, the saturation of carbon dioxide is low, and an appropriate amount of industrial carbon dioxide will be added during canning. Industrial carbon dioxide enters the brain with blood circulation, which will lead to brain hypoxia, dizziness, headache, vomiting, and even temporary memory loss (fragments). The refined crude beer increases the saturation of carbon dioxide by adding a large amount of malt, so as to convert edible carbon dioxide.
It is reported that China's refined beer has been introduced since 2010 and ushered in a small climax from 2015 to 2016. Since 2018, refined beer has gradually come out of the circle. According to public data, the market scale of refined beer in 2019 is 24 billion yuan. It is expected that by 2024, the market scale will reach 68 billion yuan, with an annual compound growth rate of about 23.2%.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) the research report points out that at present, Beijing, Shanghai and Nanjing are the core cities of refined beer culture, and refined beer is infiltrating second tier cities such as Hangzhou, Wuhan and Xi'an.
Or smelling the market limelight, listed companies have begun to layout fine brewing. The above Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) relevant people told the financial associated press that refined beer is the demand of consumers for higher quality beer. The company uses the combination of "1664", "Greenberg", "Brooklyn", "Fenghuaxueyue" and "Jing a" to build the refined beer market.
The above people close to Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) said that the company's product "Yanjing No. 9" has expanded in the mode of small stores in Beijing. The company has also recently established a joint venture "Lion King Xinyan" to enhance its efforts in fine brewing products. In addition, in July this year, Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) launched the "Eight Sights of Yanjing" fine brewing product series.
Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) said that in the first half of the year, the company promoted the construction project of fine brewing beer production line and experience stores to improve the supply capacity of the high-end market. On the basis of the existing two fine brewing experience stores, it plans to promote three more fine brewing stores. Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) said that in the first half of the year, the company accelerated the transformation and upgrading to high value-added products represented by tinned wine and refined brewing products.
It is worth noting that at present, the main market brands of refined beer are still non listed enterprises. Yang Chengping added: "in the future, with the entry of Chinese listed enterprises, the market pattern of refined beer will change and the share will be gradually transferred to listed companies."
(Financial Associated Press)
