On December 26, freedom Research Institute released the observation of Shanghai long rent market in 2021 (hereinafter referred to as the observation). The observer pointed out that Shanghai has an additional 185200 permanent residents every year, of which 70% need to rent houses. At this rate, Shanghai will add nearly 130000 rental demand every year and 650000 rental demand in the next five years.
In 2021, with the continuous growth of high-quality tenants, Shanghai long-term rental institutions were highly recognized by the market, and the occupancy rate of houses was as high as 98%. Meanwhile, the rent of long-term rental institutions is stable throughout the year, with an average monthly fluctuation of less than 0.3% and an average annual fluctuation of less than 0.4%.
Insiders pointed out that the Shanghai long-term rental market as a whole presents two core characteristics of large demand and high quality requirements. Driven by the relevant policies from the central government to the local government and the market demand for rental housing for 70% of the new population, the Shanghai long-term rental market will usher in a large-scale and standardized sustainable and positive development.
the occupancy rate of long-term rental institutions is as high as 98%, and Baoshan, Minhang, Pudong accounts for 50% of the total turnover
According to the data of observation, the occupancy rate of Shanghai mayor’s rental institutions reached 98% in 2021. In terms of rent, the rent of Shanghai mayor’s rental institutions was stable throughout the year, with an average monthly fluctuation of less than 0.3% and an average annual fluctuation of less than 0.4%.
Insiders pointed out that there had been media reports that there had been obvious rent fluctuations in the general rental market of individual landlords in Shanghai during the graduation season in 2021. In contrast, the rent management of long-term rent institutions is more stable, and the rent fluctuation is less than that of individual general rent, which plays the function of market “stabilizer”.
The time distribution of trading volume shows that the low and peak season of Shanghai long rent market in 2021 is obvious. The first half of the year showed a trend of “opening low and going high”, and the trading volume has risen all the way since the off-season at the beginning of the year. Among them, the turnover of white-collar workers in March rose by 58% month on month, which was the fastest growing month of the year, while the graduation season in June became the peak of the turnover of the year. In the second half of the year, the trading volume of the long-term rental market contracted slightly, but the overall level remained at a high level.
The spatial distribution of trading volume shows obvious aggregation characteristics. The top three regions in trading volume account for 50% of the total long-term rental transactions in Shanghai. Among them, Pudong New Area is the most active area for long-term lease transactions, accounting for about 24%; Followed by Minhang District, accounting for nearly 15%; Baoshan District ranked third, accounting for 11%. According to the data of the seventh national census, this is also the three districts with the largest population in Shanghai. It is worth mentioning that Jiading District, a “Shanghai Science Satellite City” with developed industries and enterprises, ranks fourth, accounting for 8%, compared with Songjiang District, which has a larger permanent population.
the migrant population accounts for more than 40% of the permanent population, and the new rental demand in Shanghai will reach 650000 within five years
As an important economic center and international financial center city, Shanghai has maintained a strong attraction to talents in the Yangtze River Delta, East China, the Yangtze River economic belt, the Central Plains and other places for many years, and the talent agglomeration effect is obvious.
According to the data of the seventh census, Shanghai has a permanent resident population of 24.8709 million, of which nearly four have become permanent residents from other provinces and cities, with a total of 10.4797 million. At the same time, in the ten years from the “six Popularization” to the “seven Popularization”, the university educated population in Shanghai has increased by 3.3711 million, and the increment of talents ranks first in China.
According to the observation, according to the statistics of the “seven universals”, Shanghai’s average annual new permanent population is 185200, and the data of “70% new citizens and young people rent houses” according to the statistics of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, it is conservatively estimated that Shanghai’s annual New rental population is about 130000. Combined with the continuous and stable talent attraction ability of Shanghai, it is expected that the new rental demand in Shanghai will reach 650000 within five years.
Industry insiders pointed out that compared with the rental demand of 150000 new graduates in Beijing every year, Shanghai’s new rental groups each year catch up with Beijing in terms of quantity on the one hand, and may have higher living quality requirements on the other hand.
According to the data of per capita disposable income of residents in the first three quarters of 2021 released by the National Bureau of statistics, Shanghai ranks first in China with per capita disposable income of 58907 yuan, more than twice the national average.
The recent central economic work conference pointed out that we should accelerate the development of the long-term rental market and set the tone for supporting and promoting the development of the long-term rental market from the central level. At the local level, the Shanghai municipal government has focused on regulating and supporting the market.
In the past six months alone, Shanghai has issued the guiding opinions on the reconstruction and transformation of non residential stock houses in Shanghai (for Trial Implementation) and the plan for the use of pilot funds for the development of housing rental market supported by the central government in 2021, so as to speed up the cultivation and development of Shanghai housing rental market; The introduction of the detailed rules for the supervision and implementation of housing lease transaction funds in Shanghai (for Trial Implementation) and other documents has further standardized the orderly and healthy development of the housing lease market.
Insiders pointed out that based on the overall characteristics and demand of Shanghai long-term rental market, quality rental is the key. Therefore, accelerating the development of quality and standardized long-term rental housing, increasing the proportion of long-term rental institutions and increasing the supply of long-term rental housing will become one of the important ways to solve the demand for new high-quality rental housing in Shanghai.
(surging News)
