Under the growth expectation brought by the high prospect of industry development, the photovoltaic sector is highly sought after by funds in 2021 and has become one of the main themes of the structural market during the year.
Data show that as of the latest closing date, 42 photovoltaic stocks hit a record high in the year, accounting for 65%.
Supply chain game is the key word of this year's photovoltaic industry chain. The price rise caused by the shortage of silicon material supply runs through the whole year. The soaring price of silicon material was transmitted to the whole photovoltaic industry chain, and silicon wafers, modules and batteries rose in response. The volume and price of the performance of relevant listed companies in the first three quarters rose together, driving the stock price to rise sharply.
However, due to the excessive price rise in the upstream, the downstream manufacturers are under cost pressure. The supply and demand mismatch of the main photovoltaic industry chain is more serious, which not only erodes the downstream profits, but also leads to the rush to load at the end of the year.
At the end of the year, the terminal demand was sluggish and began to reverse upward transmission. Recently, the silicon wafer giants Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012. SH) and Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) (002129. SZ) both lowered the silicon wafer price, and Longji lowered the product price twice in a row, with a decrease of more than 12%.
While the price war of silicon wafer started, the price of silicon material has been loose for three consecutive weeks. With the capacity of silicon material and silicon wafer expanded in the early stage will be gradually put into operation in 2022, the supply and demand game of the photovoltaic industrial chain will be another scene. Can new players of silicon PV continue their high performance growth? What is the impact of upstream capacity ramp on terminal demand? Is the photovoltaic sector worth looking forward to next year?
the shortage of silicon material makes the new installed capacity of the whole year less than expected
The continuous growth of downstream installed capacity is the fundamental factor to promote the development of photovoltaic sector and drive the sector to obtain excess returns. However, the imbalance between supply and demand of polycrystalline silicon leads to a sharp rise in prices, and the inhibition of downstream demand leads to less than expected installed capacity, which is the main contradiction in the development of photovoltaic industry in 2021.
In terms of installed capacity, according to the data of the national energy administration, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China increased by 34.83gw from January to November. Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said at the annual conference of the industry recently that due to the lag in the issuance of indicators and rising prices, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China this year was less than expected, and the installed capacity forecast was reduced from 55gw ~ 65gw at the beginning of the year to 45gw ~ 55gw.
"The fourth quarter is often the peak season. At present, there is no rush to load in the downstream as last year, mainly because of price and other reasons, leading to the postponement of some projects." A new energy industry analyst told the first financial reporter.
Silicon material is the biggest bottleneck of photovoltaic supply chain in 2021. In terms of demand, the growth of downstream demand combined with the replenishment of inventory brought by the expansion of silicon wafer production leads to the continuous shortage of silicon materials.
According to the data released by the silicon branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the price of polycrystalline silicon rose sharply during the year, and the price peaked in July. The average price of single crystal compact reached 206 yuan / kg, with a maximum increase of more than 200%.
The aforementioned analysts said: "Compared with silicon wafers, components and battery chips, the expansion cycle of silicon material is the longest in all links of the industrial chain. Considering the ramp up of production capacity, it is about 18 months. The objective expansion cycle leads to almost no new silicon material production capacity this year, and a small part of the production capacity has indeed been put into operation at the end of the year, but it has little significance for silicon material price and downstream demand. We expect silicon material production in the second half of next year The delivery speed should be significantly faster than that in the first half of next year, and the price decline should be greater. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of silicon material supply in 2022 is expected to reach 50%. "
after the expansion of silicon materials and silicon wafers, what will the photovoltaic sector focus on next year?
As the most upstream of the industrial chain, silicon material has a strong voice and the highest gross profit margin. Under the situation of short supply, a number of A-share head enterprises have successively thrown out 10 billion production expansion plans.
Recently, polycrystalline silicon giant Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) (688303. SH) announced that it plans to invest 33.25 billion yuan in Baotou city to build 300000 t / a high-purity industrial silicon project, 200000 t / a silicone project, 200000 t / a high-purity polycrystalline silicon project and 21000 T / a semiconductor polycrystalline silicon project.
Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) (603260. SH) also announced in December that it would invest 35.5 billion yuan to build a silicon-based new material industry integration project, including silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery components and power stations. In addition, Jiangsu Sunshine Co.Ltd(600220) (600220. SH), Xinyi solar energy (00968. HK) and other new and old players are vigorously laying out silicon manufacturing.
The first financial reporter combed the statistical announcement and found that at present, the new capacity of many silicon material enterprises, including Gcl System Integration Technology Co.Ltd(002506) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Asian silicon industry and so on, will be put into operation in 2022.
The "internal rolling" expansion of production makes the market worried about the impact of silicon overcapacity and the sharp drop in silicon price on players.
According to the prediction of the silicon branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China will enter the intensive polysilicon production period in the fourth quarter of 2022, adding new entrants. China's output will be 1.75 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 150%; The total supply is 1.95 million tons, 3.36 times that of 2021. The problem of oversupply may begin in 2023.
Compared with silicon materials, the industry threshold of silicon chips, components and battery chips is not high, and the technical barriers to expansion are lower. Over the past year, silicon wafer manufacturing has also attracted many new players. According to incomplete statistics, there are at least 12 silicon wafer manufacturers with expansion plans in 2022. It is expected that the total new silicon wafer production capacity will exceed 299gw in the future.
From the demand side, the demand for silicon wafers in China may be less than 300gw in 2022. Even excluding capacity climbing and capacity replacement, there is still a possibility of serious excess. At present, silicon wafer has entered the price downward channel, which will be a great challenge for new and old players in the future.
"Silicon material enterprises have a very typical periodicity. From 2011 to 2012, silicon material fell by about 70% in less than one year, which is similar to the rise this year. The profitability of polysilicon enterprises largely depends on the price of polysilicon, and the excess profit often comes from its price elasticity. With the gradual introduction of new capacity, the spring of high performance and growth of silicon material enterprises is gradually moving away." The aforementioned analyst said.
"In addition, silicon wafer manufacturing determines the demand for silicon material. Silicon wafer has entered the downward channel. The subsequent decline of silicon wafer can only depend on the degree of silicon material concession. Downstream demand is also a key factor. It is still impossible to judge the installed demand in the first quarter of next year." The analyst added.
The investment of photovoltaic industry focuses on "quantity" rather than "price", and "quantity" refers to the downstream installed capacity. The new installed capacity during the year was less than expected, and the profits of the industrial chain were mainly concentrated in the upstream links such as silicon wafer and silicon material and the equipment required for upstream manufacturing.
In the secondary market, as of the latest closing date, 34 stocks in the photovoltaic sector rose by more than 50% during the year, of which 17 stocks doubled, significantly outperforming the main stock indexes. Individual stocks such as Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (688599. SH), Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) (688516. SH), Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) (600481. SH) led the list with an increase of 150%. "Silicon chip giants" Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) and Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) rose 18.52% and 57.19% respectively in the year. After announcing the reduction of silicon chip price, these two stocks fell 10.91% and 11.11% respectively in December.
Under the high growth expectation, the photovoltaic sector rose to a historical valuation high this year. What is the focus of investing in the photovoltaic sector in 2022? "At present, the certainty of new silicon material production in 2022 is high, the biggest bottleneck of upstream supply has been opened, the supply and demand of the industry is expected to gradually restore balance, and the industrial profits will be redistributed. In 2021, the profits of downstream manufacturers will be squeezed to a certain extent, and inverters, auxiliary materials and some necessary equipment at the manufacturing end still deserve attention." A Shanghai private equity fund manager told reporters.
It is also worth noting that during the expansion of silicon wafer production, suppliers provide equipment for upstream manufacturing. Two photovoltaic equipment manufacturers Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) and Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) in Wuxi signed a number of large sales orders during the year, ensuring high growth of medium-term performance.
"In addition, the new generation technology granular silicon needs close attention. This technology is expected to significantly reduce the cost. From the perspective of the proportion of technology application, we initially see the hope of commercial application. In the medium and long term, the new technology path is the key point to promote the cost reduction of photovoltaic to a higher level, and will also be the wind vane of photovoltaic investment in the next stage." Said the private placement source.
(First Finance)
