Conclusion: supply contraction reappears
2021 is coming to an end. According to the meso high-frequency data since December, the trend of supply and demand has been differentiated: on the one hand, the terminal demand has warmed up, the decline in the growth rate of real estate sales in 35 cities has narrowed, and the growth rate of passenger car wholesale and retail sales of the passenger Federation has rebounded; On the other hand, industrial production is still tight, the growth rate of steel output of steel enterprises has expanded, the growth rate of coal consumption of power plants continues to decline, and the operating rates of major industries such as automobile, chemical industry and steel have also generally declined.
In November, the low level of industrial production improved and the growth rate of industrial added value picked up slightly, but in December, production showed signs of weakening again. On the one hand, in terms of objective restrictions, the overall northern region is generally affected by the production restriction policy of the Winter Olympic Games. The national blast furnace operating rate continues to decline, which has fallen below 50%, which also makes the iron ore price and steel price rebound simultaneously; On the other hand, from the perspective of subjective will, the continuous decline of bill interest rate also reflects the poor financing demand of the real economy and the rise of early-stage costs, resulting in the weakening of enterprise expectations and weak production enthusiasm.
However, looking forward to next year, with the successive implementation of steady growth measures, the gradual easing of upward pressure on enterprise cost side and the end of major international events, production is expected to regain its upward trend, and economic growth is likely to usher in a “good start” in the beginning of the year.
（ Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) ）
