Source: Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) study
Author: Qin Peijing, Qiu Xiang, Yang Lingxiu, Yang Fan, Li Shihao, Yang Jiaji
At the end of the year, the market game will intensify, and the “high cut low” transaction will enter the midfield, and the high-quality blue chip will get better and better at the beginning of the year. It is suggested to focus on the two main lines and layout the “three low positions”. First of all, the relay of the steady growth policy is in progress, and it still takes time to form a joint force. It is expected that the data in the fourth quarter will show an obvious repair trend of China’s economy. The data in the first quarter of next year will fully reflect the effect of the policy joint force, and market confidence will be repaired quickly. Secondly, at the end of the year, both the admission of incremental funds and the transfer of stock funds will reflect the characteristics of water flowing to the low, “cutting high to low” is still the trading direction with the least resistance, and the cross-year market style is still obviously biased towards the market and low-level blue chip repair. Finally, the “good start” of bank credit at the beginning of the year may exceed expectations, which will confirm the trend of credit cycle repair; The new “good start” of public offering makes the market more liquid. It is expected that the high-quality blue chip market of A-Shares will be getting better and better at the beginning of 2022. It is suggested to closely follow the two main lines of the landing of stable growth policy and the recovery of consumption price, and firmly focus on the “three low points” for the cross-year layout of blue chip varieties.
policy synergy and economic data disclosure
will quickly repair market confidence
1) the policy of stabilizing growth is highly urgent, monetary easing first, and other policies begin to relay. after the central economic work conference defined the overall policy direction of steady growth, the market focused on the implementation of policies. Recently, due to the disturbance of public opinion, there were differences on the pace and intensity of policies. Moreover, as it still takes time to implement the main policies of infrastructure and real estate, the short-term monetary policy took the lead. On December 20, the central bank lowered the one-year LPR interest rate by 5bp, earlier than the market expected, It shows that the urgency of the steady growth policy under the “triple pressure” is increasing, and the two standard cuts not only reduce the debt cost of financial institutions by 28 billion yuan, but also open up space for reducing LPR interest rate and reducing the financing cost of the real economy. The reduction of LPR is not accompanied by the adjustment of policy interest rate. The main purpose is to promote the credit supply of the real economy. It is expected that there may be a window period for further easing of monetary policy in the first quarter of next year, and other policies will also start to relay in the near future.
2) the key to policy is to boost demand. It still takes time for policy to form a joint force from relay. the interest rate of the bank’s 1-6-month transfer notes has recently dropped from about 2% in early November to near 0, which indicates that the demand of enterprises is weak and the willingness to credit is low; On the other hand, it is also possible that the bank will postposition the loan to ensure a “good start” in 2022. Therefore, monetary easing also needs the policy cooperation of demand boosting, which is finally reflected in the leading indicator credit expansion; It is expected that the fiscal policy will be the main relay point for the follow-up, and the focus of the final stable growth is mainly in three aspects: new infrastructure, stabilizing real estate and promoting consumption. In addition, the tone of various ministries and commissions for stabilizing the economy has been very clear. It is expected that local governments will make clearer statements before and after the “two sessions”, and most commercial banks are preparing for a “good start” next year. In terms of rhythm, it takes time for all policies to be formulated, implemented and effective. It is expected that the introduction and implementation of specific policies will be accelerated in the first quarter of next year, and the market will usher in a more clear, clear and positive policy signal.
3) the data of the fourth quarter will show the obvious trend of China’s economic recovery, and the data of the first quarter of next year will fully reflect the effect of policy synergy. according to the prediction of the macro group of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research department, it is expected that the two-year average growth rate of China’s economy in the fourth quarter of this year will be better than that in the third quarter, the direct reading of GDP will exceed 8% in 2021, and the economy will continue to improve in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 5.5%. In terms of itemized data, it is expected that the social zero growth rate will continue to improve month on month in December, the growth rate of fixed asset investment will become positive, and the scissors difference between CPI and PPI will continue to converge; In addition, with the support of monetary policy, the growth rate of social finance is expected to stabilize and recover, and a clearer repair channel will be entered next year. The data represented by credit in the first quarter will also fully reflect the effect of policy synergy.
at the end of the year, the market game will intensify
“cut high and cut low” trade into midfield
1) institutional incremental funds continue to support the market with abundant liquidity. monetary policy is loose first, the real financing demand is limited in the short term, and the inter-bank market liquidity is still abundant in the near future, which further strengthens the foundation of abundant market liquidity. On the one hand, the recent public offering new issuance market has been significantly repaired compared with October, and the average new issuance scale of active equity products has rebounded for four consecutive weeks; As of December 22, the newly issued scale of all public (equity + fixed income + other) funds had reached 244.4 billion yuan, the highest level since July. At the same time, near the new year node, fund companies and sales channels are actively preparing for a “good start” in the first quarter of next year, and many star fund managers have successively announced the new fund issuance plan. On the other hand, the slowdown of short-term foreign capital inflow does not change the long-term net inflow trend. Generally speaking, China’s market environment of “low inflation + leniency policy + reasonable equity valuation” in 2022 is still better than the combination of “high inflation + tight policy + high equity valuation” in European and American developed markets. It is expected that the long-term trend of foreign capital to continue to allocate A-share assets will not change greatly. In addition, the northbound “fake foreign investment” restriction policy has limited impact on the A-share market. At present, the funds entrusted to offshore Hong Kong funded institutions have resumed the net inflow on December 22.
2) the water flows to the low, and the “high cut low” transaction enters the midfield. there is a large gap in the relative income ranking of active public offering products. In December, the institutional position adjustment will focus on the layout of the next year, and there will still be a “seasonal game” in the last week. Specifically, this year’s ample liquidity, superimposed differentiated valuation and the improvement of institutional pricing power, “cutting high to low” is still the trading direction with the least market resistance. On the one hand, this year, the high-level sectors with heavy institutional positions and contributing to the main income mostly have a downward expected profit growth next year, PEG has improved, and the high concentration is not conducive to opening the relative ranking gap, and the overall configuration cost performance and attractiveness are reduced. On the other hand, with the convergence of policy consensus and the expected repair of fundamentals, the peg of the sector with relatively low valuation and economic recovery is down, and the configuration cost performance is higher. At the end of the year, both the admission of incremental funds and the transfer of stock funds will reflect the characteristics of water flowing to the low, “cutting high to low” is still the trading direction with the least resistance, and the cross-year market style is still obviously biased towards the market and low-level blue chip repair.
the high-quality blue chip market in the beginning of the year will be getting better
it is recommended to closely follow the two main lines and layout the “three low positions”
1) the high-quality blue chip market will be getting better in the beginning of the year. various short-term disturbances only affect the rhythm of the medium-term blue chip market, not the trend. Looking forward to the first half of 2022, China’s policy focus is on steady growth, and the main policies began to form a joint force in the first quarter, which is reflected in the data. At the same time, the overall macro liquidity is abundant, the market liquidity is also relatively abundant, A-Shares are generally good, and there are many market opportunities. At the beginning of the year 2022, the “good start” of bank credit may exceed expectations, which will confirm the trend of credit cycle repair; The new “good start” of public offering makes the market more liquid. The macro data release and policies work together to repair market confidence: with the weakening of disturbance factors and the strengthening of supporting factors, the blue chip market will be better and better.
2) in the first half of the year, the two main lines of steady growth policy and consumption price recovery were closely followed. structurally, compared with the cycle sector affected by the high base and the growth sector constrained by high expectations, the allocation cost performance of high-quality blue chips is higher. The implementation of stable growth policy and the recovery of consumption price are the two most important main lines: the former is expected to be mainly implemented in new infrastructure, stabilizing real estate and promoting consumption; In addition to benefiting from the policy, the latter will also benefit from the rebound of CPI. For specific research framework and conclusions, please refer to our 2022 annual strategy report return of blue chip (2021 / 11 / 9).
3) firmly carry out the cross year layout of blue chip varieties around the “three low positions”. recommends that the focus is on the low expectations of the basic expectations, focusing on the manufacturing of mid stream manufacturing, which is suppressed by cost and supply chain problems, such as automotive parts and electrical equipment , and gradually adding some consumer and pharmaceutical sectors that are worth a reasonable return to the region, such as Baijiu, food, vaccine , etc. For the varieties with relatively low valuation, focus on high-quality developers and building materials enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, as well as Hong Kong stock Internet leader after the impact of China stock market; High boom varieties with relatively low stock price after adjustment, such as semiconductor equipment , special chip devices and military industry promoted by localization logic.
risk factors
The global epidemic situation is repeated and the vaccination is not as expected; The friction between China and the United States in the field of science and technology trade has intensified; The progress of China’s economic recovery is less than expected; Macro liquidity at home and abroad has tightened more than expected; The impact of the new strain in South Africa exceeded expectations.
(brokerage China)
