At present, the market is in a three-phase superposition period of performance vacuum period, economic downturn period and epidemic recurrence period. In this three-phase superposition situation, the original mainstream track has been highly valued, and the existing new plate has not emerged. Therefore, the market as a whole is in a weak shock pattern. The industry rotation is accelerated, but the sustainability of the rise of various themes is relatively general. When will this weak shock period end
We believe that by the disclosure period of the annual report, if the performance of the corresponding hot sectors can meet or exceed expectations, the market will usher in a strong rise period again. Before that, more funds will participate in the market in the way of theme speculation and plate rotation.
From the time of performance announcement, it is currently at the end of the year, which is the performance vacuum period. The third quarterly report has been published at the end of October, and the performance growth reflected in the third quarterly report has been fully reflected in the market in September and October. The first quarterly report and annual report will not be published until the end of April, and the annual report performance forecast will not be published in batches until mid January. Therefore, the market is now facing a more “embarrassing” pattern.
From the economic situation, the current economy is still in a downward period, the risks of the real estate industry have not been released, and there is uncertainty in foreign trade. The trend of quarterly decline in economic growth in 2021 has been established. The GDP growth rate in a single quarter fell from 18.3% in the first quarter to 4.9% in the third quarter. It is expected to further decline to about 4% in the fourth quarter.
From the perspective of epidemic situation, thanks to the latest mutant strain Omicron, the number of confirmed covid-19 in the world has reached a record high every day, and the covid-19 epidemic is still spreading fiercely. On the eve of Christmas Eve, the number of newly diagnosed people in covid-19 exceeded 97000 every day, reaching a new historical peak of 971000, higher than the peak of 834000 in early 2021 and 900000 in mid 2021. This means that the covid-19 epidemic continues longer than people think.
Investment strategy: we expect that in the first quarter of next year, stimulated by the renewal of performance outlook and the relaxation of policies, the market is expected to launch a new round of rising market. From the perspective of investment strategy, we think there are two major directions to focus on, mainly high growth plate and dilemma reversal plate. First, continue to focus on the manufacturing industry and high prosperity track. Including military industry, new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, new energy, energy systems, etc.), semiconductors, the Internet of things, etc. these sectors have long-term logic and will maintain high growth for a long time in the future. When the market starts a new performance expectation in the first quarter of next year, it is expected that the relevant sectors will usher in a new round of upward period. The second is the dilemma reversal track. Including business tourism, pig cycle, shipbuilding, innovative medicine and other sectors. These sectors are currently at the bottom of the cycle. At the most difficult time, the stock price also reflects these difficulties to a considerable extent. Once the cycle goes up, the stock price is full of elasticity. In addition, we can also pay attention to some industrial security fields, such as information security, seed industry security, etc; The industrial cycle began to move upward, such as consumer electronics.
Risk tip: the performance of relevant sectors is lower than expected.
（ Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) ）
