With the recent consumption upgrade, the trend of liquor high-end has become more and more obvious. The performance of Baijiu enterprises has been growing in the first three quarters, meanwhile, the major Baijiu enterprises have also raised their prices. However, this year, the senior management proposed to "strengthen the tax regulation of consumption links and study and expand the scope of consumption tax collection", which means that the implementation process of industry consumption tax reform is likely to be accelerated.
For Baijiu, consumption tax has always been the "sword of Damour and Chris" in the industry. According to the interview and combing of the financial Associated Press, the direction of consumption tax reform may move the collection link from the production end to the channel, the tax pressure of wine enterprises will be reduced, and the trend of volume reduction and price increase will continue. Meanwhile, under the process of high-end Baijiu, the advantage of liquor enterprises will become more and more obvious, while the middle and low end liquor enterprises will continue to run high. In addition, with the sauce wine cooling down, the rise of fragrance, the strong flavor Baijiu liquor headed by Sichuan has begun to exert power, and the future industry pattern may change.
sword of Damocles hanging high, channel or pressure
In June Baijiu Baijiu, a proposal on the calculation of liquor consumption tax from the volume calculation, attracted the attention of the market. Some NPC deputies proposed that the liquor consumption tax should be changed. The Baijiu liquor that was priced at 3000 yuan and 10 yuan rice wine was 0.5 yuan / Jin consumption tax, which caused a heated debate in the market.
Guangdong provincial finance department, in response to the reply of the 1364th representative of the four session of the thirteen Guangdong Provincial People's Congress, said that the state is now stepping up its legislation on consumption tax law. Feedback and suggestions have been received in the early stage of soliciting opinions, including the proposal to set different rates of tax or cancel the quota according to Baijiu's degrees.
Chinese Baijiu is known as the "double tax" law of the volume of liquor consumption tax. The final level sales unit of Baijiu enterprise is 60% as the accounting standard, and the ad valorem tax is collected at the rate of 20%. At the same time, the amount of tax is collected from 0.5 yuan per 500ML.
Under the current double compound taxation, high-end wine (high price, higher than 500 yuan / 500ml) has obvious tax advantages. On the contrary, the tax burden of the middle and low-end price band (medium and low price, lower than 500 yuan / 500ml) is heavy. That is, under the same specifications, the higher the price, the lower the consumption tax rate.
Therefore, Baijiu consumption tax reform calls for gradual progress. Correlation analysis pointed out that from the perspective of the existing consumption tax opinion, the reform of Baijiu consumption tax mainly includes the following steps: the collection link should be transferred to the wholesale and retail sectors, and the volume tax will be abolished.
Baijiu liquor is known to be a high-end liquor producer. Chinese Baijiu production is decreasing year by year, and the trend of price reduction is increasing. The output of Baijiu industry increased from 3.5% to -11.8%, -27.3%, -9.8% and -5.8% from 2016 to 2020. Meanwhile, according to the data of Baijiu, the proportion of liquor over 300 yuan increased from 29.1% in 2018 to 40% in 2021.
Therefore, once Baijiu consumption tax reform is implemented, the trend of volume reduction will continue. Yang Chengping, an expert in the bee net Baijiu, told reporters: "the industry is expected to show a downward trend in the next few years. The reason is that the prices of all kinds of raw materials are rising, and the new consumption tax in the circulation sector will inevitably rise. In addition, in recent years, the economic pressure of consumers is greater and the volume of production and sales is bound to decline as affected by the epidemic."
However, listed companies have different attitudes towards consumption tax and price increase. Recently Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (000568. SZ), which just announced the price increase, told the associated press that it is not clear whether the consumption tax will be levied, and it is not expected to have a great impact on the competition pattern of the industry. The follow-up strategy adopted by the company in terms of price still needs to observe the situation of other enterprises in the industry and is related to the market supply and demand relationship of the company.
A relevant person close to Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) (603198. SH) told the financial Associated Press: "if the tax increases, the company will increase the distribution of sales, improve the performance as much as possible and reduce the impact of tax. The price of some products of the company has been adjusted this year. If the price will be adjusted next year, the company will release relevant information in time."
People close to Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (000799. SZ), Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (000596. SZ) told the financial associated press that although the consumption tax industry has been discussing, it has not entered the substantive legislative stage, and the specific rules on policies have not been issued. The company is not clear for the time being. At present, there is no relevant plan in terms of price.
the head liquor enterprises have obvious advantages, and the cost of medium and low-end liquor enterprises will continue to increase
As mentioned above, if the collection link of consumption tax reform is moved later, the tax pressure on the production end of wine enterprises will be reduced. However, the reporter learned that this does not apply to all liquor enterprises. The life of medium and low-end liquor enterprises with low bargaining power is still difficult.
Cai Xuefei, an expert in analysis of bee net Baijiu, said: "because the famous wine enterprises have strong bargaining power in their own channels, consumers have a high rate of self and high demand for products, so they can transfer the consumption tax to the channel and market, but lower than some price oriented middle and low end liquor, it is likely to increase the operating cost of enterprises and reduce their competitive edge."
This view is basically consistent with some listed companies interviewed by the financial associated press.
People close to Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (603369. SH) told the associated press, "The consumption tax reform will certainly have a certain impact on companies in the industry, but the extent of the impact is related to the company's bargaining power. The company may consider raising prices and passing it on to some consumers. For the industry, the increase of consumption tax is actually a restriction on the consumption behavior of the industry. The most direct impact lies in the cost side of the company. As for whether it will affect the final outcome of the company Our profitability also depends on the bargaining power of our company. " And said that the company will continue to optimize the product structure, and the proportion of high-end products will be more and more.
This is particularly evident in the performance. In recent years, the liquor companies have been making high-end Baijiu liquor, and their performance has generally risen substantially. In terms of this year's third quarterly report, the head liquor enterprise "maowuyang Lufen" led, and the revenue scale maintained stable growth; Second and third tier liquor enterprises increased the most; In the tail, except for the losses of Anhui Golden Seed Winery Co.Ltd(600199) (600199. SH) and Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.Ltd(000995) (000995. SZ), Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (603589. SH), Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) (603919. SH) all achieved an increase of about 30%. It is worth mentioning that the net revenue of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809. SH) and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) (600702. SH) in the first three quarters have exceeded the level of the whole year of 2020, and even caught up with the whole year of 2019 before the epidemic.
In contrast, liquor enterprises focusing on medium and low-end products are more difficult. Baijiu Baijiu business accounted for more than 7 of the Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) (000860.SZ), for example, from 2017 to the first half of 2021, the gross profit margin of liquor business continued to shrink, which was 54.86%, 48.63%, 48.08%, 39.22% and 35.62% respectively.
Channels, from the financial union reporters channel research, the price of the low-end Baijiu market chaos. The actual retail price of the medium and low end Baijiu products, including Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , often differs from official retail prices. Many Baijiu products often have bargaining space. If consumers buy in large quantities, they can get a higher discount. A liquor industry personage double eleven period to the Associated Press reporter said: "I found in the supermarket downstairs last weekend, the original price of Niu Lan Shan 200 Baijiu Baijiu, now only sell 40 yuan / piece."
With the promotion of consumption tax reform, the high-end Baijiu process has accelerated. Will medium and low-end liquor enterprises follow this trend and make corresponding adjustments in the future? Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) in an interview with the financial Associated Press, the relevant person only said, "the adjustment of the company's product structure has been going on all the time, and the layout of medium and high-end products has not started only in the last year or two. We are not an enterprise with weak brand bargaining power, and there are no measures to improve the brand influence."
Yang Chengping added: "The consumption tax reform will further enhance the industry concentration. Only brands with stronger brand strength will get more bargaining space in retail stores and consumption links, and the profits of the channel will be relatively more. Brands with weaker brand strength will have weaker price increase and bargaining power in the channel, resulting in thinner and thinner profits of the channel, so the channel will no longer be willing Selling products with weak brand power is a great blow. In terms of products, medium and low-end products will continue to weaken in the future, while medium and high-end, high-end and even ultra-high-end products will continue to strengthen. "
sauce wine cools down, fragrance rises, and strong fragrance makes great efforts to compete for hegemony
In recent years, driven by the strong momentum of Maotai, the sauce and wine fever has intensified, and all kinds of capital have settled in Maotai town one after another. It is even reported that tens of billions of investment may flow into Maotai Town in 2021. But in the third quarter, the "wind vane" of sauce and wine fever seemed to turn. In late August, the State Administration of municipal supervision organized the major liquor companies to hold a forum on liquor market order regulation at the China Price Association. Many industry analysts told reporters by Baijiu, this is a measure to prevent the capitalization of industries and excessive price increases leading to bubbles.
After that, Tianshui Zhongxing Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(002772) (002772. SZ), Xiamen Jihong Technology Co.Ltd(002803) (002803. SZ), Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) and other liquor enterprises successively announced the termination of the "sauce dyeing" plan.
Lin xiangzeng, Secretary General of the Organizing Committee of China wine exhibition, told the media that on the one hand, the cooling of sauce and wine is due to the rapid price increase of products; On the other hand, affected by the transfer of third and fourth tier sauce and wine brands, the inventory of dealers in some regions of China is high.
But this does not mean that the soy sauce flavor begins to decline. China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) the research report believes that the current cooling of sauce and wine is a normal phenomenon. Now it is channel cooling rather than terminal demand cooling, which is mainly reflected in the development of brands by small brands and dealers. Driven by high gross profit, many non-traditional wine merchants pour into the sauce and wine market. However, at present, the consumer brand awareness rises and the channel thrust weakens. When the "drum beating and flower passing" is coming to an end, Cooling is inevitable.
Yang Chengping also pointed out: "the cooling of sauce wine fever does not mean that the development trend of sauce wine is slowing down, but that the consumption of the market is more rational, small brands and products without brands will no longer have opportunities, and the market will be more standardized in the future."
In addition to sauce wine, Luzhou flavor will also face the impact of fragrance. The operating revenue of "Qingxiang boss" Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) increased from 6.037 billion yuan in 2017 to 13.99 billion yuan in 2020, and the net profit increased from 1 billion yuan to 3.116 billion yuan in 2020. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 17.257 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.927 billion yuan, far exceeding that of last year. The total market value also exceeded Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) to 370 billion yuan in the near future.
In response, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) stakeholders told CF reporters that competition among the same flavor types would be more intense. Although the heat of soy sauce was very high, the impact on Luzhou flavor liquor was limited, and the market share of Luzhou Baijiu liquor was far higher than that of Maotai flavor.
The above people close to Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) analyzed to reporters: "at present, the soy sauce fever has indeed dropped. For the company, if its own brand is not done well, it is also logical for soy sauce wine to enter Jiangsu." He also said that the future pattern of flavor types depends on consumers. The pursuit of flavor types in various regions is diverse due to cultural and climate differences. The three major flavor types still have their own consumer groups, and it is not easy for one to dominate.
The above people close to Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) also believe that each flavor has its own characteristics and personal preferences. The trend of flavor also has a certain cycle for the whole industry.
But the reporter found that Luzhou incense, which has occupied the position of "flavor boss" for many years, has begun to fight back. At the government level, the Sichuan government has issued a number of policy documents on the issuance of notices to promote the development of Baijiu industry in Sichuan in recent years, and various measures to achieve the revitalization of Baijiu.
On the production side, Yibin proposed 5 years of redevelopment of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Mianzhu area to dig deep South Jiannanchun value, Luzhou will build an intensive cluster of Baijiu industry, Qionglai strive for three years to form qiongjiu liquor revenue doubled.
Yang Chengping added, "I personally predict that the category pattern may change greatly in the future. Fenjiu has begun to take the lead, and many brands will follow. Sauce wine and fragrance will squeeze the share of Luzhou flavor. In the future, the largest category will be Maotai flavor, the second is Qingxiang, and Luzhou flavor may become the third." He also said that among the 12 major flavor types, other flavor types also have opportunities, and in the future, each flavor type will develop on the current basis, squeezing all the categories of Luzhou flavor.
It is worth mentioning that in the turbulent period of the pattern, concurrent fragrance types are also catching up. At present, there are many liquor enterprises, such as "Xiaolang liquor" and "shunpinlang" of Langjiu shares, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (603589. SH), and Xufu liquor industry. Among them, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) the revenue and net profit in the first three quarters increased by more than 30%.
"Sauce wine fever is not only a part of the upgrading of China's wine consumption, but also the result of the diversification of wine consumption, but also the market choice of Chinese wine consumers for quality consumption; flavor integration has also become a new consumption trend, and branding and production regionalization have become the new key points of competition." Cai Xuefei said.
(Financial Associated Press)
