study and judgment of the general trend: focus on steady growth and still need to adjust the structure. recently, the market has fluctuated at a high level, and the profit-making effect has narrowed, which is reflected not only in the significant adjustment of the broad-based index represented by the gem index, but also in the rise of only 30% of the number of stocks at the weekly level. The main reasons behind the adjustment and fluctuation are as follows: 1) the comprehensive RRR reduction since December superimposed with the one-year LPR reduction, and the loose expectation has been fulfilled in stages; 2) The expectation of overseas interest rate hikes has risen, and global inflation and the spread of the epidemic have formed a dilemma intersection; 3) Phased factors such as “cracking down on counterfeiting” foreign capital have brought great pressure on growth sectors such as new energy with crowded transactions and high valuation. Despite the disturbance, new momentum is still brewing, and the transmission chain of “policy bottom → valuation bottom → profit bottom” will be carried out relay. Looking forward to the future, we maintain the judgment that “agitation is not achieved overnight” and believe that the rhythm of this round of cross-year offensive is more moderate. With the gradual implementation of specific policies for steady growth in the first quarter of 2022 and the easing expectation opening up imagination again, the cross year market will still be further deduced.
Behind the structure: face the game between profit and valuation. in the strategic outlook for 2022, we pointed out that the future market style will shift to deterministic growth, and two types of structures will be derived from it. First, the mandatory consumption represented by food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery is the core allocation main line with the strongest profit reversal logic, with both high winning rate and high odds; Second, the boom growth represented by the new energy industry chain will still benefit from the dividend of energy structure transformation. We see that the recent market structure is obviously differentiated, and the change of liquidity expectation is the main reason for the adjustment of growth industries. In particular, in the case of restraint easing, the overvalued sector is facing breaking pressure. At the same time, under the signal of steady growth, the reversal momentum of profit expectation is becoming more and more prominent. In the future, on the basis of grasping the growth, we should face up to the game between profit and valuation, and structurally maintain the judgment of “consumption turns around” and “harvest season of undervalued value”.
capital construction chain configuration value is improved. at the policy level, the economy is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations, and stabilizing growth has become the core task. Considering the relative weakness of real estate investment and the gradual slowdown of export growth, under the condition that the repair of domestic consumption is a slow variable, generalized infrastructure has become a new starting point. From the perspective of structural proportion, traditional infrastructure is the main body of growth, focusing on transportation, water conservancy projects and other fields. From the perspective of marginal changes, the new energy infrastructure represented by wind power, photovoltaic, BIPV and charging pile, as well as the new information infrastructure represented by 5g, IDC and satellite Internet, are worth looking forward to.
industry configuration: growth force, ripples gradually open. from the central economic work conference, the next stage of the policy core margin is to stabilize the economy, and to add the revised range of pessimism according to the order of steady growth, and recommend: 1) consumption: accelerate the expected bottom; recommend the direction of Baijiu, pig, household appliances, furniture and social service / tourism that are supported by performance and negative expectations. 2) Finance: securities companies and banks; 3) Consumer electronics; 4) Infrastructure: grasp the key points of new infrastructure such as BIPV and power operation, and also pay attention to the development of traditional infrastructure under steady growth.
(Research on Chen Xianshun’s strategy)
