The stock index fell 0.39% this week. How will A-Shares run next week? We have summarized the latest investment strategies of major institutions for investors’ reference.
CITIC strategy: the game intensifies at the end of the year, and the blue chip is getting better
At the end of the year, the market game will intensify, and the “high cut low” transaction will enter the midfield, and the high-quality blue chip will get better and better at the beginning of the year. It is suggested to focus on the two main lines and layout the “three low positions”. First of all, the relay of the steady growth policy is in progress, and it still takes time to form a joint force. It is expected that the data in the fourth quarter will show an obvious repair trend of China’s economy. The data in the first quarter of next year will fully reflect the effect of the policy joint force, and market confidence will be repaired quickly. Secondly, at the end of the year, both the admission of incremental funds and the transfer of stock funds will reflect the characteristics of water flowing to the low, “cutting high to low” is still the trading direction with the least resistance, and the cross-year market style is still obviously biased towards the market and low-level blue chip repair. Finally, the “good start” of bank credit at the beginning of the year may exceed expectations, which will confirm the trend of credit cycle repair; The new “good start” of public offering makes the market more liquid. It is expected that the high-quality blue chip market of A-Shares will be getting better and better at the beginning of 2022. It is suggested to closely follow the two main lines of the landing of stable growth policy and the recovery of consumption price, and firmly focus on the “three low points” for the cross-year layout of blue chip varieties.
Monarch strategy: adjusting structure and stabilizing growth, and the cross year market will still be further deduced
Recently, the market has fluctuated at a high level, and the profit-making effect has narrowed, which is reflected not only in the significant adjustment of the broad-based index represented by the gem index, but also in the rise of only 30% of the number of stocks at the weekly level. The main reasons behind the adjustment and fluctuation are as follows: 1) the comprehensive RRR reduction since December superimposed with the one-year LPR reduction, and the loose expectation has been fulfilled in stages; 2) The expectation of overseas interest rate hikes has risen, and global inflation and the spread of the epidemic have formed a dilemma intersection; 3) Phased factors such as “cracking down on counterfeiting” foreign capital have brought great pressure on growth sectors such as new energy with crowded transactions and high valuation. Despite the disturbance, new momentum is still brewing, and the transmission chain of “policy bottom → valuation bottom → profit bottom” will be carried out relay. Looking forward to the future, we maintain the judgment that “agitation is not achieved overnight” and believe that the rhythm of this round of cross-year offensive is more moderate. With the gradual implementation of specific policies for steady growth in the first quarter of 2022 and the easing expectation opening up imagination again, the cross year market will still be further deduced.
Haitong strategy: stock market under counter cyclical policy
The steady growth signal of this central economic work conference has been very clear, and counter cyclical regulation has been proposed, but recently, the market is still in a struggle between policy and fundamentals, with weak performance. So looking back, how will the market interpret? Perhaps the stock market performance under the influence of counter cyclical regulation policies in the past few rounds can provide us with reference. Learning from history, the counter cyclical policy supports the market upward. Looking back on the global financial crisis in 2008, China has launched four rounds of counter cyclical policies to stabilize growth, starting at the end of 2008, the end of 11, the middle of 14 years and the end of 18. In addition to 11-12 years, with the introduction of previous counter cyclical policies, the broad-based index has increased significantly.
Livelihood Strategy: the market will regain the long forgotten “Pro cyclical” logic
In the process of three rounds of recovery (2005-2007, 2009-2010 and 2016-2017), finance, coal and nonferrous metals always led the increase, while building materials ran through and steel ended. The logic of this round of “steady growth” is different from the previous one in that there have been more positive changes on the supply side, which will lead to more elasticity of the boom signal (price) of traditional industries represented by coal, nonferrous metals, steel and building materials relative to the recovery of demand. In our annual strategy, “victory in the end”, we discussed that its long-term profit center is moving upward. The actual situation is that in the cycle market of 2021, investors are worried about its sustainability and do not give reasonable valuation and pricing. However, the next stage may be that the expected rebound will be ushered in before the profits of the cyclical industry have fully fallen, and the long-term contraction of valuation will be repaired. The market will regain the long forgotten “Pro cyclical” logic in the future, but we should also pay attention to new logical changes.
Guosheng strategy: rebalancing new and old core assets
From the perspective of micro sentiment, the current round of market sentiment warming began in early November. After two months of internal and external resonance repair, the inflow intensity of northbound trading and China’s financing sentiment indicators have weakened from a high level. In the future, it may face downward pressure for a period of time. In the environment of weakening market sentiment, the main track has been significantly callback since the recent year. The steady growth sector continued the previous recovery trend, and the new and old infrastructure chain, real estate and consumption continued to lead the two cities. From the valuation trend, the recent valuation related to the new energy industry chain has dropped significantly, while the valuation of traditional core assets has risen against the trend, and the valuation of new and old core assets has been rebalanced.
CICC strategy: “steady growth” continues
The central economic work conference held in the early stage released a more positive policy attitude, and the recent measures such as the central bank’s LPR reduction also sent a relatively clear easing signal. Combined with the above environment, we believe that although the recent performance of the market is slightly depressed, there is no need to be too pessimistic. From historical experience, the market tends to gradually turn positive in the period of more clear policy implementation or significant improvement of forward-looking indicators. We believe that the short-term “steady growth” policy is expected to be implemented gradually in the future. In the medium term, the cycle of growth and policies at home and abroad will be reversed again in 2022, and structural trends such as valuation and liquidity support, industrial upgrading and so on are expected to support market performance. In terms of style, we estimate that the short-term performance of track growth stocks may be restrained due to their large increase, high valuation and expectation and heavy overall institutional positions, while the areas related to the “stable growth” policy may continue to show relative toughness, and the market is still expected to show the style characteristics of “big strength and small weakness”; After the growth expectation gradually stabilizes and the “steady growth” transaction cools down, the market may return to the growth style. We roughly estimate that the time point is 3-6 months later.
Guangdong Development Strategy: focus on the main line of steady growth
Under the economic background of shrinking demand and weakening expectation, boosting consumption in 2022 is expected to become an important starting point, and more industrial policy support is expected in terms of consumption upgrading and market sinking. According to the historical situation, the profitability of the consumer sector is likely to be significantly improved in 22 years, and the performance elasticity is high under the low base effect. At the same time, the valuation side is also significantly repaired under the boost of policies and prosperity. The consumer sector has ushered in a double-click market driven by valuation performance, and the required consumption has performed before the optional consumption, Optional consumption elasticity is greater. For the growth track, the short-term sector is expected to fluctuate more under the influence of multiple factors. In the long run, the development of the industry is mainly supported by the top-level planning. The realization process of carbon neutralization has a long way to go. The logic of the long-term development of the industry remains unchanged. As an important starting point for steady growth next year, the prosperity sustainability is expected to be maintained. Pe-g is selected
<1的优质性价比板块。
兴证策略：跨年行情守住颠簸、以长打短
从我们11月中旬提出“跨年行情”以来，指数明显抬升，但行情却并不“坚定”。市场始终有疑虑、有分歧，并呈现“等待信号验证→快速冲高→震荡整固”的状态。核心原因正如我们反复强调的，这一波跨年行情类似往年春季攻势，核心驱动力大多来自政策预期及风险偏好的升温。因此也容易受到市场预期变化和一些短期利空因素的扰动。本周市场整体冲高回落、延续波动，主要受机构持仓拥挤、年底平衡结构、海外疫情扰动、年底资金回账等因素影响。但投资的“反人性”之处，正在于我们需要以相对长期、理性的判断来战胜眼前的焦虑、颠簸。
