I. overseas markets: the epidemic in Europe and the United States accelerated, and the epidemic in South Africa peaked and fell. this week, the fourth wave of epidemic in South Africa caused by Omicron strain has "peaked", and the South African Ministry of health has also relaxed some prevention and control measures. According to the early research results, the transmission of Omicron strain is stronger, and the severity may be lower than Delta. However, at present, the epidemic is still an important disturbance factor restricting global economic growth. The supply chain of overseas economies recovers slowly. In the short term, China's exports are expected to maintain a certain toughness. Under the strategy of dynamic zeroing, China's residents' consumption may remain weak.
second, employment pressure appears, and the demand for stable policy growth is enhanced. according to the economic data in November, the situation of "strong external demand and weak domestic demand" continued, the urban survey unemployment rate increased month on month, and the economic downward pressure under weak domestic demand began to appear under the influence of employment data. The central economic work conference clearly pointed out that "stability" is the key word of macroeconomic policies for some time to come. All parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, properly advance the policy force, iron out the economic fluctuations before the 20th National Congress, and maintain the economic operation in a reasonable range. In terms of industrial policy, some urban real estate policies will be adjusted under the regulation goal of urban implementation; Science and technology, new energy industry chain and new infrastructure (digital economy and green industry) will still be the direction of key policy support.
Third, monetary policy will be more proactive and promising in the next stage. 1) on December 20, the 1-year LPR decreased by 5bp, and the 5-year LPR remained unchanged. Asymmetric interest rate cuts are more to release the signal of "stable growth" at the level of monetary policy to the market. At the same time, they are also reflected in the cautious attitude towards the use of aggregate policies under the determination of "housing, housing and non speculation". The current target of real estate regulation is "city planning policy". It is expected that the following policies will continue to be adjusted in some cities. 2) The fourth quarter regular meeting of the central bank stressed that monetary policy in the next stage should be more "proactive and promising, and increase support for the real economy". Looking back to the first half of 2022, in the key stage of counter cyclical policy, the monetary environment is easy to loosen but difficult to tighten. There is still room for subsequent interest rate cuts. The probability of reducing MLF interest rate by the end of the first quarter of next year increases.
Fourth, investment strategy: firm confidence, the structural market is far from over. in the short term, A-Shares are ready for the new year, ready for the restless market at the beginning of the year. Since December, the monetary policy of western countries led by the United States has been tightened, superimposed with the spread of mutant strains, and the global market has fluctuated to a certain extent; At the same time, under the warming of institutional capital game at the end of the year, the rotation of A-share plate intensified. The trend of China's foreign policies is different. In the warm period of the "stable growth" policy, the monetary policy will be more active and promising in the next stage, the market liquidity will remain abundant, the credit supply is expected to accelerate at the beginning of the year, and the probability of MLF interest rate reduction is also increasing. In the environment of market shock, bargain hunting can be arranged in the restless direction in spring, biased towards consumption growth. In terms of industry allocation, there are three main investment lines:
1) Growth sectors, such as new energy (vehicles) (smart grid, energy storage, wind energy, photovoltaic, etc.), electronic industry chain ;
2) the "Spring Festival effect", Baijiu plate with certain price expectations.
3) The " real estate " sector, which benefited from the marginal change of real estate policy of "implementing policies due to the city", focused on central enterprises with increased market share.
Theme investment concerns: " dual carbon, military industry, consumption upgrading ", etc.
■ risk tips: repeated outbreaks outside China; Large fluctuations in overseas markets; The game between China and the United States has intensified.
(strategy Li Lifeng and industry configuration notes)
