In 2021, after a wave of rapid rebound at the beginning of the year, A-Shares began to fluctuate continuously and run through the whole year. 2021 is coming to an end, and it is time for securities companies to discuss the investment strategy in 2022. How to interpret the market in 2022 has become the most concerned topic in the market. From the core point of view of major securities companies in China, the overall market in 2022 is expected to be better than that in 2021, and the slow bull market will continue to deepen.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162)
small cap opportunities highlight
Looking back on US stocks in the past 50 years, there have been four small cap stock markets, all of which were formed after turbulent times or crisis events. The large and small market reflects the changes in relative performance brought about by changes in the macro environment or industry pattern. What works for the style factor is also the market’s pursuit of medium and short-term profit elasticity. Therefore, when it is difficult to judge the macro environment and the style of large and small stocks, we can also choose to dilute the style, pay attention to the core influencing factor of annual dimension excess return – the growth rate of net profit, and choose the industries with dominant or high growth relative performance trend in the current year.
Generally speaking, in Q4 every year, regardless of the economic and policy environment, the funds will begin to be arranged in advance at this stage, and the direction of high prosperity is expected in the second year. Based on the above analysis, two main lines of high prosperity + dilemma reversal are recommended in 2022:
One of the industry allocation ideas: continue the high boom. (1) In the hard technology track, the core recommends the plates related to “planned economy”. From the perspective of the top-down macro environment, the next 2-3 quarters may be in a stable window period, and the total economic demand, including investment and consumption, may be relatively general. Therefore, we try our best to find the industries with the strongest countercyclical attribute, that is, the sectors whose fundamentals and profits are not affected by the decline of aggregate economy. Among them, the sectors related to planned economy probably have such attributes, That is, the business of tog (here G is the active financial investment of the government). Therefore, in the hard technology track, we recommend operators with similar attributes: photovoltaic, wind power, military industry, energy storage and new energy.
(2) Among the hard science and technology tracks, the prosperity of next year may be higher than expected: among the plates with relatively low predicted growth rate in 2022, with the promotion of the industry, the profit forecasts may also be raised for military industry, new energy vehicles – upstream resources, Internet of things, industrial software and semiconductor IGBT.
Industry allocation idea 2: Dilemma reversal. (1) In 2022, under the background of narrowing the ppi-cpi scissors gap, we will focus on the mandatory food and pork. The narrowing of the ppi-cpi scissors difference means that the profits of the middle and upper reaches are gradually transferred to the middle and lower reaches. It is found that the probability of excess returns of mandatory foods is high. At the same time, considering a large cycle bottom every four years, pig prices may bottom in 2022, corresponding to the opportunities of the breeding industry.
(2) Among the optional consumption, the dilemma of the automobile and tourism travel sector is reversed, and the excess return of household appliances depends on the rebound of the credit cycle.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109)
annual or “n” trend
At the macro level, the economy is going down again, China’s economy presents three structural trends, and the profits of the industrial chain are transferred to the middle and lower reaches. The first is to real estate. Although the policy has been corrected, the real estate industry has entered the clearing stage under the positioning of “real estate is not fried”; Secondly, the consumption dimension has been reduced, the impact of the epidemic has intensified, the income gap has widened, the consumption upgrading is facing a short-term test, and the necessary consumer goods are more stable and sustainable than durable consumer goods; Finally, under the background of manufacturing upgrading, high-quality development and energy transformation, the traditional manufacturing industry is upgraded intelligently, the key areas are strong chain and short board, and the new energy related fields are bigger and stronger.
In terms of capital market, the annual A-share market may show an “n” trend, growth stocks and small cap stocks are relatively dominant, the performance is at the bottom, and the loose policy is expected to support A-shares. The continuous downward performance growth of listed companies has been the consensus expectation of the market and will not become the core factor leading the market. The core factor leading the market trend comes from the policy side. At present, the window of marginal easing of macro policy has been established. In terms of market rhythm, the annual market may show an “n” trend, that is, the market is relatively strong in the first and fourth quarters and relatively weak in the second and third quarters. Relatively speaking, A-Shares may perform better in the policy window period in the first quarter, and there is still great uncertainty whether the economy can stabilize and recover in the second and third quarters of next year. In addition, after the end of taper, the Federal Reserve has a high probability to increase interest rates and increase the volatility of global stock markets. In the fourth quarter, with the implementation of uncertain factors such as interest rate increase, equity assets may be repriced.
In terms of market style, growth stocks are dominant and small cap stocks are dominant. Specifically, growth is better than value, the economy is at the bottom stage, and the performance of value stocks is more damaged than growth stocks in the economic downturn stage. In addition, in the economic downturn stage, monetary policy will not be tightened, and the capital interest rate may be in a downward trend, which is more beneficial to the valuation of long-term growth stocks whose profits are concentrated in the long term; Moreover, the small market is better than the large market. Although the current credit spread is at a historically low level, under the environment of wide currency and wide credit, the credit spread may continue the low downward trend, and small cap stocks may benefit from the reduction of uncertain risk premium.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837)
growth style is expected to continue
On the whole, in 2021, the growth style continues the strength since 2019, while the market value style continues to be dominated by the large market and slightly balanced by the small market. Looking forward to 2022, the style will continue the trend of 2021 or further reverse.
Looking forward to 2022, from the perspective of the overall market environment, we believe that after three years of rise from 2019 to 2021, A-Shares may usher in phased repair, which is backed by the dual disturbance of hidden inflation worries and cyclical decline of profits. In terms of inflation, looking back on the typical inflation cycle since 2000, the upward cycle of CPI lasts for about 2 years and the upward cycle of PPI lasts for 2-2.5 years. In the current inflation cycle, the low point of CPI is – 0.5% in November 2020 and the low point of PPI is – 3.7% in May 2020. As of November 2021, it has only been upward for 12 months and 18 months respectively. From the perspective of time dimension, the upward cycle of inflation has not been completed. In 2022, with the further confirmation of the recovery trend of developed economies such as the United States and Europe, there is still a driving force for the further rise of internationally priced commodities. At the same time, the rise in commodity prices will push up global inflation expectations, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates will heat up, and the center of US bond interest rates will move up. The upward movement of US bond interest rate and the pressure of inflation may make it difficult for China’s treasury bond interest rate to go down, which will restrict the rise of A-share valuation; In terms of profitability, since 2002, the five rounds of A-Shares have pointed out that the rising cycle lasts for an average of 6-7 quarters. The current round of return on net assets bottomed out in the second quarter of 2020 and began to recover in the third quarter of 2020. It is expected to peak in the first quarter of 2022. After the second quarter of 2022, there is a high probability that the return on A-share net assets will begin to enter a downward cycle. This is because, as mentioned above, China’s inflation pressure may further ferment next year. Historical experience shows that the return on A-share net assets will gradually deteriorate in the later stage of inflation.
On the whole, under the dual pressure of interest rate constraints on valuation and downward earnings in 2022, the A-share market may usher in a rest. Historically, in such a market environment, the market and value are often a better choice. At the same time, combined with the relative valuation of the style, we believe that the market value style is expected to continue the trend since 2016 last year, that is, the market is slightly better; In terms of growth value style, from the perspective of time, the dominant cycle of this round of growth lasts for three years, and there may be continuation of the growth style in the future. However, considering that the valuation premium of the relative value of growth is obvious at present, the style is expected to return to value slightly next year, similar to the overall dominant growth in the middle of 2009-2015, but the style also shifted to value in 2011.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926)
deduce “high quality development cow”
In 2022, the world will still show a weak economic situation. It is expected that China will implement the “wide currency + differentiated credit” portfolio under the counter cycle, and the shortage environment of asset allocation still exists. According to static calculation, the net inflow of A-Shares is expected to be about 655 billion yuan in 2022. Specifically, it is estimated that public offering, private placement, insurance capital, social security and foreign capital will bring about 7100, 3150, 3000, 800 and 250 billion yuan of incremental funds to A-Shares respectively in 2022. However, in terms of capital consumption, the scale of IPO and net reduction in 2022 will be about 500 billion yuan. Thus, the difference between the two, that is, the incremental capital of A-Shares (static calculation), is about 655 billion yuan.
Looking forward to the A-share strategy in 2022, A-share will play a “high-quality development cow”, and selecting high-quality tracks will become the primary task. The operation of A-Shares in 2022 has the following characteristics: first, do not expect a general rise in A-Shares in 2022. China’s economy has entered a new normal: the economic development model has changed from “rough” development to “high-quality” development; Second, some segments of the track congestion has become the norm, but it is not a sufficient reason to be bearish on growth and consumer stocks. A-Shares may also rely on “rapid rotation of segments of high-quality tracks” to digest and break the deadlock of track congestion; Third, in 2022, the strategy of winning the “leader” by lying down in A-share investment is not dominant. It is expected that the first-line leading stocks will spread to the “second and third” line high-quality growth stocks; Fourth, the daily trading volume of A-Shares is expected to continue above trillion in 2022.
In terms of market style in 2022, growth and consumption are recommended. In terms of industry configuration, six high-quality tracks are recommended. “Growth and stability” is an important consideration for industry allocation in 2022, which is configured around the main line of “high-quality development”. The six major quality tracks are the direction of configuration, new energy, intelligent electric vehicles, semiconductors, military industry, high-end / second high-end Baijiu, innovative drugs, CXO, etc.
YueKai securities
the second half is better than the first half
Looking forward to 2022, the deepening reform of the capital market will continue to be promoted. Beijiao hopes to expand rapidly and become a new position to support the development of specialized, special and new enterprises. Under the background of successful experience in implementing the registration system on the science and innovation board, the gem and the ownership order of Beijing Jiaotong, the comprehensive registration system will be accelerated, contributing new forces to improve the proportion of direct financing and help economic transformation and development.
Looking at the world, we believe that the Chinese market is a global bright capital market. The reasons are as follows: first, the economic level is in the downward stage. It will enter the bottom area by 2022, and there is upward expectation, while the developed countries are in the downward stage at the inflection point of stimulus policy exit and liquidity tightening; Second, the policy support is expected to increase, and a number of policies will be issued to stimulate and boost the economy; Third, next year’s liquidity is in the marginal easing stage, which has improved compared with this year’s tight balance stage, and some forward-looking indicators have been shown in advance. In terms of the operation rhythm of the capital market, based on the liquidity and the expected rhythm of policies, the opportunity in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half of the year. The overall operation rhythm of 2022 is: cross year market → shock returns to flat → rise again under steady growth, showing an “n” trend with a slow slope.
In terms of industry allocation, in the downward stage of the economic cycle in 2022, the allocation focus of A-Shares will gradually tilt to the “middle and lower reaches”. The improvement of the relationship between supply and demand will lead to the profit restoration of the middle and lower reaches of the industry with the downward inflation. At the same time, with the weakening of the kinetic energy of economic recovery, it is expected that policy support will take care of the economy.
From the top-down clue, the ppi-cpi scissors gap narrowed + the expected rise in interest rate cut. First, add middle and lower reaches plates; Second, the hard technology represented by TMT has the ability to cross the cycle; Third, infrastructure is still an important direction for policy development this year, especially the new infrastructure has higher flexibility.
Bottom up investment clues, volume price driven + valuation switching. From the perspective of valuation in 2022, first, the sectors that have greatly digested the valuation due to the significant improvement of performance, mainly including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, commerce and rain sales, real estate, non bank finance, etc; Second, among the high boom growth stocks, the sectors with outstanding performance certainty and high cost performance mainly include computers, national defense and military industry, power equipment and mechanical equipment.
Long term strategic clues, common prosperity and carbon neutrality. China’s large market scale is also expected to bring cost advantages in low-carbon manufacturing, especially in the fields of low-carbon transportation and energy-saving buildings; In addition, the policy encourages the development of new energy, which is expected to bring industrial development opportunities such as scenery and hydrogen energy storage.
Shanghai Securities
bottom layout, waiting for spring
2022 will be a year for China to “return to normal”, adhere to the “high-quality development path” and continue to move forward with its people to “common prosperity”. In the global environment of reduced sensitivity to the epidemic, the epidemic will subside, and the United States will pay more attention to balancing the relationship between inflation and the economy. With the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates falling to the ground, inflation will remain high in the short term and enter a downward trend in the long term.
This year’s market funds are abundant as a whole. In order to cope with inflation, China has reduced investment, making the profit growth of traditional industries too fast. Some industries with strong cyclical beta, such as carbon neutralization related and new energy photovoltaic industries with growth attributes, show strong allocation power, and the market funds deviate from alpha to beta. In 2022, with the gradual decline of non market regulation, under the main tone of emphasizing “stability”, China’s economic aggregate will remain stable, the profits of traditional industries may recover in an all-round way, and the profit distribution will return to normal. Under this environment, Alpha Company with low valuation this year will probably usher in a double rise of “profit + valuation”.
It is relatively certain that the current beta market has been sailing to the end, and the alpha market will be switched in 2022. On the index, we are optimistic about the long-term upward trend of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, A50 Index, Hong Kong stock Internet technology and Nasdaq 100; Structurally, we are optimistic about the pharmaceutical and food and beverage head companies that are expected to make double repair in valuation and profit, as well as the real estate leaders that have regained their footing under the recovery of policies, focusing on the soft technology sector represented by meta universe and intelligence. Based on China’s comprehensive military expenditure and the prospect of future military strength, and the current market does not overestimate the military industry sector, the long-term allocation value of military industry also deserves attention. At the same time, based on our view of the future transaction characteristics of the new energy industry from diffusion to convergence, we are optimistic about the head companies with strong alpha attribute in the new energy industry.
In 2022, the core opportunities are still in the enterprises with alpha characteristics. At present, the real fundamentals have not been launched. We will regain the core assets, lay out the bottom and wait for the spring.
Puyin international
is expected to outperform the world
In the first quarter of 2022, China and the global economy are likely to show a resonant downward trend. Around the second quarter of 2022, China’s economy may lead the global economy to the bottom in advance, and there may be great downward pressure in the whole year of 2022. On the whole, in the first half of 2022, the overseas market may face the embarrassing situation of killing both the denominator of risky assets (tightening the liquidity margin) and the numerator (weakening corporate profits). In terms of economic fundamentals, liquidity, capital & position, sentiment and technology, China’s stock market may reach the bottom before overseas markets. Specifically, China’s stock market may reach the bottom in the first quarter of 2022 and outperform the global stock market in the whole year of 2022.
In terms of economic cycle, China’s economy has entered a “decline period” (need to be cautious) at the end of the third quarter of 2021, and is expected to enter a “recession period” (suitable for increasing positions) in the first quarter of 2022. In the first and second quarters of 2022, China’s stock market is likely to usher in the bottom of the market. It is likely that the position will need to be gradually increased in the first quarter of 2022.
We expect that the profit of China’s stock market will continue to recover moderately in 2022, while the valuation will decline slightly. The annual return in 2022 is in single digits, and the market opportunities are mainly concentrated in the second half of 2022. In 2022, the macro environment is complex and the market environment is poor. It is more necessary to sink logically and expand alpha. The main line of industry allocation includes paying attention to the marginal repair of demand in the post epidemic era; Looking for consumer varieties with strong ability to raise prices; Pay attention to the varieties with sales release due to supply bottleneck relief; Focus on varieties with tight supply and relatively stable demand. It is suggested that the super match Hotel, Baijiu, beer, pig, semiconductor, aluminum, lithium, float glass, real estate, thermal power, nuclear power and other sub track.
Minsheng securities
the overall market is worth looking forward to
In 2021, the overall economic growth slowed down, credit conditions tightened and macro leverage ratio continued to decline, which has exceeded that in 2018. In such an environment, the whole market does not seem to have fallen, but the valuation since the epidemic has been significantly compressed and returned to the level at the end of 2019. When the cycle (non supply restriction) and growth (non new energy) are eliminated, the whole market does not rise, and the style between value / growth is not obvious. Market participants have faced great environmental changes, large market capitalization investors in the whole market have lost at a historical level, and the long-term position steady-state structure of institutional investors has been broken. Unlike some investors who believe that they are standing at the end of the three-year bull market, we believe that they are standing in the market after a year’s short cycle adjustment: the decline of leverage, the compression of valuation and the decline of congestion.
Due to the high dividend rate in 2021, the return on net assets of all A-Shares will remain upward while the profit growth rate drops to 6.5% in 2022, which is expected to break through the long-term trend. After the credit tightening and valuation compression in 2021, due to the loose policy, the demand recovery will resonate with the economic transformation. We calculate that the expected yield of Shanghai Composite Index in 2022 will reach 14.9%. However, it should be emphasized that the real opportunity of A-Shares is not the current “cross year market”. The expectation of overseas interest rate increase and the fragility of trading structure make it more structure oriented at present, and the full year and comprehensive market in 2022 is more worthy of expectation.
Configuration thinking, transformation is the reconciliation of the old and new economies. It can be seen that a large number of cyclical industry roe and return on investment have broken through its downward trend for a long time since 2021, and will continue in 2022. This phenomenon has appeared in traditional industries represented by Baijiu after 2016. Future demand will be more easily accepted by market investors than simply supply contraction, and the value of traditional industries will be reassessed. Cyclical stocks will outperform commodities. In emerging industries, focusing on new energy power generation side, power infrastructure, carbon reduction in traditional industries and automobile intelligence are their main directions.
Three main lines are configured in the industry: the first is the configuration of traditional industries: Iron and steel, banking, securities companies, non-ferrous metals, building materials, crude oil chain and coal; The second is carbon reduction in new energy power generation side, power infrastructure, smart cars and traditional industries; Third, Rural Revitalization will become the most important new growth clue after 2022, focusing on agricultural machinery, seed industry, environmental protection, county consumption, etc.
Guokai securities
slow bull market continues
In 2022, we continue to define A-share as a slow bull market. Although the downward pressure on macroeconomic growth is still large, the annual GDP growth rate will still be slightly higher than that in the fourth quarter of this year. In the direction of stabilizing the economy, the monetary policy is in a loose trend, the micro liquidity is expected to maintain a net inflow, and the consistency of earnings growth of listed companies is expected to exceed 10%, The market risk premium is in the middle. Under the condition that there is room for downside of risk-free interest rate, the market has the opportunity of positive income throughout the year. At the beginning of the year, the opportunity is the best at the stage of optimistic policy and abundant credit. However, it is less likely that the market capital environment will overheat. The annual incremental capital is weaker than that in the past two years, and the room to improve the market risk appetite is limited. The increase of the index will not be significantly higher than this year.
It still needs to be noted that slow cattle stumble, and the risk of periodic adjustment during this period can not be ignored. First, the current valuation of growth stocks is at a high level, and the profit growth does not match the valuation. In the early spring offensive, if further valuations are made, the risk of a phased bubble burst will occur in the event of unfulfilled performance. Two, the probability of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve in June 2022 or September will be stronger. The third quarter may pose a certain adjustment pressure on a shares. The overall market model may be similar to that in 2021. What remains unchanged is the moderate upward trend, which becomes the timing and main line plate.
In terms of configuration, from the perspective of growth, it is recommended to pay attention to green energy (wind and hydrogen), new energy vehicle industry chain (lithium battery, auto parts) and chip; From the perspective of defense, it is suggested to pay attention to the over undervalued value (securities companies and banks), the opportunity after the decline (medicine and science and technology network), the dilution of epidemic factors and the reduction of income and expenditure gap (consumer goods); In terms of theme investment, Yuan universe, military industry and common prosperity can be concerned.
(Financial Investment Report)
