For the 2022 market, the overall attitude of securities companies is optimistic. Due to the increase of supply, it is still difficult for the market to rise in an all-round way. Therefore, the industry generally believes that structure is still the main tone for a long time in the future. In the structural market, it is easier to obtain excess benefits by selecting high-quality tracks. For the next year’s opportunities, hydrogen energy, semiconductors, national defense and military industry, photovoltaic and new energy vehicles are generally optimistic.
1
new energy upstart:
hydrogen energy takes the road of lithium battery growth
With carbon neutralization becoming a global consensus, hydrogen energy has stood in the center of the stage, and the development of hydrogen energy has become a race track for all countries. Following the pace of the times, China has launched a series of construction plans and subsidy policies for the development of hydrogen energy. The relevant statements of hydrogen energy in 2019 appear in the government work report for the first time. In October 2020, the State Council issued energy saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap 2.0; In March 2021, the 14th five year plan for national economic and social development of the people’s Republic of China and the outline of long-term objectives in 2035 were released. Hydrogen energy entered the 14th five year plan and the outline of long-term objectives in 2035, becoming one of the six future industries in the forward-looking plan; In October 2021, the State Council issued the notice on the action plan for carbon peaking before 2030, which pointed out to actively expand the application of new energy, including hydrogen energy, in the field of transportation.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that the industrial chains of hydrogen energy industry have just started to develop. On the one hand, the industry needs the joint efforts of upstream and downstream to continuously improve technology and scale, so as to reduce costs. On the other hand, it still depends on government policy support at the current stage. Under the background of “carbon peak and carbon neutralization”, the national support for hydrogen energy industry is continuously improving.
In the downstream application of hydrogen energy, hydrogen fuel cell preparation has attracted much attention in the industry. Some analysts pointed out that as one of the important technical routes of new energy vehicles, fuel cell vehicles will coexist and complement electric vehicles for a long time. With the strong support of national policies in recent years, the hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle industry has ushered in major development opportunities, and the market attention of major enterprises in the industrial chain is expected to gradually increase.
potential stock selection
Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) (000338)
The industrial chain layout of the company is complete. As an industry leader, the company will benefit from the development of the industry. In addition, the company actively makes efforts in the R & D and industrial application of hydrogen fuel cells, and seizes the domestic substitution opportunities of large bore engines and high-end hydraulics. The above businesses are expected to become the new growth driving force of the company. Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) pointed out that the traditional fuel heavy truck has the characteristics of high pollution emission. Under the industry background of “carbon peak and carbon neutralization”, the new energy heavy truck will accelerate the replacement of the traditional fuel heavy truck. Since 2016, the company has deployed hydrogen fuel cells, and has mastered the development and production capacity of hydrogen fuel, solid oxide cells, air compressors, motors and other fields. At present, the company’s fuel cell engine has covered 50kw-160kw products, and the application supporting orders have also increased steadily. In the future, the fuel cell business will become another driving force for the company’s business growth.
Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (000723)
In the third quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 97.37% year-on-year and 26.65% month on month. According to the announcement, the company has established three major systems: hydrogen energy supply system of “hydrogen production, storage, transportation and processing”, “hydrogen energy vehicle manufacturing system of membrane electrode fuel cell stack fuel cell power system fuel cell commercial vehicle”, and hydrogen energy demonstration and application. Anxin Securities pointed out that recently, the State Council issued the action plan for carbon peak before 2030, which proposed to vigorously promote new energy vehicles, gradually reduce the proportion of traditional fuel vehicles in the production, sales and ownership of new vehicles, promote the electric substitution of urban public service vehicles, and promote electric, hydrogen fuel and liquefied natural gas powered heavy cargo vehicles. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, hydrogen energy development is expected to enter the fast lane. The company has a relatively complete hydrogen energy industry chain layout and is expected to benefit from the rapid development of hydrogen energy industry.
Befar Group Co.Ltd(601678) (601678)
The company began to cooperate with Tsinghua Institute of technology in 2016. The empowerment of the Institute is not only reflected in management resources, but also in the improvement of technology, strategy and platform. Propylene oxide, caustic soda, lithium hexafluorophosphate and other main industries have a high boom, and the driving force of short-term performance is inexhaustible. Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) pointed out that the company’s PO and TBA projects adopt the CO oxidation process independently developed by Tsinghua Institute of technology, and realize the lightweight of raw materials at the same time. It is expected that the project will contribute more than 1.8 billion net profit after its completion. With the help of the platform of Tsinghua Industrial Research Institute, the company has made great efforts to layout the hydrogen energy sector. At present, the company has layout in both blue hydrogen and green hydrogen, and has realized the supply of vehicle hydrogen energy. In the medium and long term, it will build a supplier of hydrogen energy production, storage and hydrogenation. In the short term, the company’s caustic soda, 6F, propylene oxide and other businesses enjoy the performance flexibility brought by the simultaneous rise of volume and price, and the long-term layout of hydrogen energy and new materials opens up room for growth.
Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) (688339)
The company has made a number of research and development achievements, such as the release of the fuel cell system “tlpower100” developed in cooperation with Toyota to achieve 711w / kg, 4.9kw/l high power density and 30000 hour durability. On October 22, the company and its fuel cell engine were selected into the first batch of major technical equipment enterprises and directories in Beijing. Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) pointed out that at present, the company has equipped 444 hydrogen fuel buses with hydrogen fuel cell engines for the Winter Olympic Games, and the total number is expected to reach 1000. In the medium term, it will benefit from the promotion of Beijing Tianjin Hebei hydrogen fuel cell demonstration urban agglomeration. It will benefit from technical cooperation for a long time. In addition to cooperation with Toyota, the company reached quadripartite cooperation with Shenli technology, Dongyue future hydrogen energy and billion hydrogen technology in September. All parties will cooperate in the field of core raw materials such as proton exchange membrane, carbon paper and catalyst.
2
domestic substitution of semiconductor:
the golden opportunity period is approaching
From a global perspective, the global semiconductor industry has followed the law of spiral rise in the past few decades, and major technological changes are the internal driving force to promote the sustainable growth of the industry. Automotive intelligence, VraR, aiot and cloud computing will push the semiconductor industry into a new round of rising period. WSTS latest predicts that the global chip market value will reach US $552.9 billion in 2021 and increase to US $601.5 billion in 2022. Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) analyst Wu jisen pointed out that from the perspective of China, although the event impact has increased the uncertainty of China’s semiconductor industry, it also further highlights the necessity and urgency of independent control of China’s semiconductor industry chain. The main logic of the development of China’s semiconductor industry is independent and controllable. At present, the development logic of domestic substitution, industrial trend and policy capital of China’s semiconductor industry has not changed. The semiconductor industry is still the main line of science and technology investment in the next 3-5 years.
As the technology blockades of other countries have been increased layer by layer, all walks of life in China have reached a consensus on the trend of independent control of semiconductor core technology. Yang Zhong of The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities pointed out that both the policy support and the support of downstream demand terminals to China’s supply chain show a trend of continuous strengthening. Upstream supply chain enterprises are actively working in many aspects, such as R & D investment and talent training, and their market competitiveness is in the stage of rapid improvement. Therefore, based on the opportunity of domestic substitution, semiconductor equipment, materials, core parts and other links are expected to cross the cycle and become one of the main themes of semiconductor industry investment in the future.
From the perspective of independent control, the equipment and materials upstream of semiconductors are the basis for the development of the semiconductor industry, and it is particularly important to realize independent control in the field of semiconductor equipment and materials. At present, a number of leading semiconductor equipment and materials companies with excellent quality have emerged in China. Wu jisen believes that, China’s leader in the subdivided field of semiconductor equipment and materials is expected to seize the opportunity of domestic substitution for gold and realize rapid rise.
potential stock selection
Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) (688012)
The company’s CCP equipment has been mass produced in multiple logic and memory chip production lines. According to the company’s official wechat, the company’s – generation ICP equipment primo NANOVA has been officially delivered to the 100th reaction chamber as of June 9, 2021, marking that the development of the company’s ICP equipment has entered a new stage. In addition, the company is carrying out technical research and development of next-generation products. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) pointed out that the world has entered a new round of digital transformation, with the cyclical recovery of the semiconductor industry and the increase of structural demand. In the face of complex international relations and the current situation of lack of core, countries attach great importance to the safety of semiconductor industry chain, the construction of global wafer capacity is accelerated, and the new demand for semiconductor equipment is sufficient. We believe that in this process, the company is expected to get more orders for mature equipment and more verification opportunities for new products.
Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) (002371)
The company is a leading semiconductor equipment enterprise in China. Its existing products include ICP etching, PVD equipment, oxidation diffusion equipment, cleaning equipment, etc. Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) pointed out that the company has the basic conditions to break the monopoly pattern. Firstly, catch-up R & D can avoid the risk of wrong judgment of technical route and improve the success rate of R & D; Secondly, the bonus of Chinese engineers can bring the company a cost advantage in competition with foreign manufacturers. These two factors are conducive to the company’s rapid and low-cost technological breakthrough; Finally, the support of Chinese major customers for domestic equipment manufacturers is unprecedented. The company has expanded the source of funds through fixed growth, accumulated mature experience by relying on the support of customers in product verification and fault handling, successfully broke the foreign monopoly in some fields, and is expected to increase the market share. Therefore, we are optimistic about the development potential of the company in the field of semiconductor equipment.
Jingrui Co., Ltd. (300655)
The metal impurity content of the company’s semiconductor grade high-purity sulfuric acid products is less than 10ppt, which has reached semi G5 level, and the product quality ranks first in the same industry in the world. At the company level, the project expands the company’s semiconductor electronic material industry chain and improves the company’s technical advantages and core competitiveness. Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that the ARF lithography machine purchased by the company in 2021 is now in the equipment commissioning stage and will be used to develop ARF photoresist with 90-28nm advanced process, which is expected to break through the technical barrier of high-end semiconductor photoresist. In terms of new energy lithium battery materials, the cmcli binder production line developed by the company was successfully completed in 2020, realizing mass production of 1000 tons, breaking the technical monopoly of foreign enterprises on high-end lithium battery binders. With the continuous development of new products in the dual fields of “semiconductor + new energy” and the smooth promotion of downstream customer certification, the company has broad growth space.
Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) (603650)
In the third quarter, 6 KrF and line I products of the company received 12 inch user orders from Huahong, ICRD, Changxin and Xinen for the first time, and obtained the second KrF photoresist order from Changcun. In terms of new product R & D, the company approved 49 projects for semiconductor photoresist R & D in the first three quarters. Meanwhile, the Nikon I-14 exposure machine was put into use in September, and the company is accelerating the development of new 8-12 inch i-line products. Cinda Securities pointed out that the company’s semiconductor, panel photoresist, electronic resin and degradable material projects have made gratifying progress, and the new production capacity is expected to continue to land next year, helping the company fully transform to new business. Looking forward to the fourth quarter and next year, the company’s traditional business is expected to get out of the trough. In addition, the verification of new photoresist products is progressing smoothly, and the new business will continue to bring considerable performance increment to the company after the release of production capacity.
3
national defense industry “rigid demand”:
the fire power of subdivided industries is fully open
Today’s world is experiencing great changes that have not been seen in a century. In the face of this change, China’s national defense strength and economic strength need to be improved simultaneously, and the upgrading of weapons and equipment and the development of intelligent weapons and equipment will be accelerated. With the increase in the quantity and quality of weapons and equipment during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the “just demand” advantage of the national defense and military industry has been highlighted, and the performance of medium and high-speed growth is bright enough.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) analyst Wang Fenghua pointed out that the 14th five year plan accelerated the upward boom of the military industry, and military enterprises generally began to show an upward turning trend in 2021, with outstanding performance. In the short term, the industry has entered the stage of comprehensive demand expansion and large capacity, and continues to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the next half year. In the long run, the military industry’s long-term high view and high certainty remain unchanged, and the high view logic will not change in the next five years.
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the national defense industry will focus on the fields of “war preparation needs”, and the aviation, missile industry chain, Beidou three industry chain and new materials will benefit significantly. From the perspective of investment strategy, Li Liang, an analyst at Galaxy Securities, pointed out that in the short term, there is a demand for the release of valuation risk in the sector, but the adjustment space is limited. At present, the quantile of valuation in the military sector is about 60%, and the upper limit of valuation improvement is far from coming; In the medium term, with the continuous release of industrial capacity and downstream demand, the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue to rise; In the long run, the “Centennial goal of building the army” is nearly late, and the “Centennial change” is bound to accelerate the modernization process of our army, and the development of the industry can be expected. “Policy chain, value chain and industrial chain” drive together to build a strong engine for high-quality development of the military industry. It is recommended to optimize the track, select individual stocks from bottom to top, and recommend Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) , Nanjing Quanxin Cable Technology Co.Ltd(300447) , Guangdong Shenglu Telecommunication Tech.Co.Ltd(002446) , Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) .
potential stock selection
Avicopter Plc(600038) (600038)
The company is the main force in China’s helicopter manufacturing industry. Its existing core products include a variety of helicopters and parts such as zhi8, zhi9, zhi11, AC311, ac312, AC313 and the latest models, the improvement and modification of the above products and customized services, as well as Y12 and y12f series aircraft. It is in a leading position in technology in China. Capital Securities pointed out that China’s armaments are currently in the “compensatory” growth stage. Combined with the implementation of the national strong military policy during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and taking into account the current lack of helicopter train loading of more than 10 tons in China, through the analysis of the army aviation train loading demand, the expansion of the marine assault brigade, the expansion of the Marine Corps and the conventional naval ship train loading Due to comprehensive factors such as the establishment of air force transportation support forces, China’s future military helicopter market will be large and the industry growth trend will be significant.
Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) (600893)
The company continues to focus on the main business of aeroengine, and its main products are gradually transitioning from second-generation aircraft to third-generation aircraft. In terms of turbofan engine, ws10 “Taihang” engine products have been very mature, and the performance and service life have been greatly improved compared with the early stage. At present, it has been adopted in large quantities in China’s active fighters, and the number of orders is in the stage of continuous improvement; The research and development of new turbofan engine with large bypass ratio continues to advance, and the downstream replacement demand is also strong. China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities pointed out that in terms of turboshaft engine, the company’s turboshaft engine is used for new general helicopters, and the two aircraft special AVIC Zhuzhou Aviation Power Industrial Park has provided strong capacity support for the volume of subsequent products. We expect that the demand for military aero engines in China will be about 20000 units in the next 20 years, and the market space will be about 250 billion yuan.
Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) (603712)
The company’s market development continues to maintain a good trend. By the end of September, the company’s inventory balance was 3.766 billion, an increase of 33.9% over the beginning of the period, and the contract liabilities reached 1.461 billion yuan, an increase of 25.6% over the beginning of the period, indicating that the company had abundant orders and guaranteed future revenue growth. Galaxy Securities pointed out that although the reduction of the two shareholders had a certain suppression on the stock price performance of the secondary market in the short term, it did not affect the long-term improvement of the company’s fundamentals. The short-term benign fluctuation of stock price is conducive to the medium and long-term layout of long-term funds. Benchmarking L3 Harris, the largest communication solution provider of the U.S. military, has a total revenue of 118.3 billion yuan in 2020, of which about 1 / 4 is communication related revenue. At present, the total market value is about 300 billion yuan, and the corresponding market value of communication is about 80 billion yuan. At present, the market value of the company is only 29.1 billion, with large growth space.
Nanjing Quanxin Cable Technology Co.Ltd(300447) (300447)
The company has always focused on military industry business, focusing on the R & D, production, sales and services of military photoelectric cables and components, photoelectric components, photoelectric system integration products, FC optical fiber high-speed network and multi protocol network solutions. The products are mainly used in the five military industry fields of aviation, aerospace, ships, electronics and weapons, and are China’s fourth generation aircraft, aircraft carrier, manned Changzheng Engineering Co.Ltd(603698) Beidou navigation system and other major national projects provide comprehensive supporting and technical support schemes. AVIC Securities pointed out that with the completion of the company’s fixed increase issuance, the raised investment projects correspond to the company’s main business segments, including aerospace high-performance cables and data cables for rail transit, integrated harness and optoelectronic system integration products and FC bus series products. After the raised investment projects are completed, they can basically meet the needs of the 14th Five Year Plan period in the next five years.
(Financial Investment Report)
