As of the closing on December 24, the CSI Semiconductor Index rose 24.23% during the year, significantly outperforming 4.17% of the Shanghai index and 11.15% of the gem index.
Looking back on the whole year 2021, after the correction in the first quarter, the semiconductor sector started a violent rise in the sound of "shortage and price rise". In particular, some companies fulfilled their performance in the first quarterly and semi annual reports, which has become the fuse for the further rise of the sector. In terms of splitting, there are existing display driver IC companies, such as Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) , Shenzhen Sunmoon Microelectronics Co.Ltd(688699) , Fine Made Microelectronics Group Co.Ltd(300671) ; There are also aiot chip suppliers, such as Allwinnertech Technology Co.Ltd(300458) , Rockchip Electronics Co.Ltd(603893) ; It also includes targets such as Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Chipsea Technologies (Shenzhen) Corp.Ltd(688595) , Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) along MCU localization supply logic; There are also a number of power semiconductor manufacturers benefiting from automobile electrification, including Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) .
Excluding the new shares listed this year, the growth ranking of the semiconductor sector since this year is as follows:
So, standing at the current time point, what else is worth looking forward to in the semiconductor sector next year? How do various institutions look forward to next year's plate?
both rose and fell into the past tense
prosperity becomes an important consideration
In fact, from the internal performance of the plate, differentiation has become the new normal.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) through the resumption of the semiconductor sector in 2021, it is found that on the whole, the semiconductor index performed stably before May. Benefiting from the continuous performance of high-quality enterprises and the catalysis of chip shortage, the semiconductor index performed brilliantly from May to August, and then the overall performance was volatile.
Specifically, in terms of subdivided fields, thanks to the promotion of semiconductor localization logic, the superposition performance is well realized. The field of semiconductor equipment and semiconductor materials has gone out of a more bright market during the period. The digital chip design, discrete devices and analog chip design industries rank second, but they all recorded growth. The growth rate of integrated circuit packaging and testing sector is negative, and the performance is relatively weak.
From the perspective of individual stocks, it can be summarized as two types of enterprises with outstanding performance: the first is the leading enterprises in popular fields such as semiconductor equipment, IGBT and analog chips with good performance, and the second is the IC Design Enterprises with small initial market value and high performance flexibility that fully benefit from the rise in the price of low-end chips.
How will the internal structure of the plate evolve next year? Huachuang Securities believes that after more than one year of simultaneous rise in volume and price, the market has great differences on the subsequent prosperity of semiconductors. Through intensive industrial chain and research of listed companies, the prosperity of many subsequent sub industries of semiconductors may be differentiated to a certain extent.
The sub industries with high correlation between and consumer downstream are less likely to have further upward prosperity due to downstream inventory adjustment . Although relevant companies benefit from the localization trend, there is still clear incremental space in the next 3 ~ 5 years, however, subject to the pressure of high gross profit margin, it is difficult to further expand the valuation month on month . At the current time point, it focuses on the subdivided industries with further upward prosperity, including semiconductor equipment, automotive semiconductor and special semiconductor.
automobile market becomes a strong engine
the meta universe opens the imagination space
Based on the year-end analysis of several institutions and the outlook for the coming year, the automobile market will replace 5g and smart phones and become the strongest driving engine of the sector, while power semiconductors have become a promising segment because they span the two themes of new energy and semiconductors.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that with the improvement of the trend of automotive intelligence and electrification, the content of automotive silicon is expected to surge, driving the continuous growth of the semiconductor market. According to sumco's data collation, the demand for 6 / 8 / 12 inch silicon wafers for automotive semiconductors is expected to be 40 / 100 / 300000 Wafers / month in 2021, and it is expected that the monthly demand for the three different sizes of wafers will reach 40 / 150 / 400000 wafers by 2024, which will further promote the accelerated expansion of the semiconductor market.
In addition to the supply chain localization bonus, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) also emphasizes the importance of innovation. They believe that under the long-term trend of electrification and intelligence, China's automotive electronics industry chain will benefit from the reshaping window of the supply chain and usher in the historic opportunity of overtaking on curves. Electrification has significantly increased the consumption of power semiconductors, which in turn has increased the value of connectors and other supporting components. In terms of intelligence, multi-sensor fusion in the sensing layer is the general trend, the on-board camera is the first to benefit, and the night before the large-scale installation of lidar has arrived. The intelligent cockpit opens a new era of vehicle experience. Under the trend of "large screen + multi screen + connected screen", the industrial chain company is expected to break the growth ceiling.
Yuancosmos points to the next generation of Internet. VR / AR devices are expected to become the hardware interaction interface and core carrier of "yuancosmos". With the improvement of hardware core technologies such as optics and near eye display, the immersive experience is improved, the content quantity and diversification of mainstream content platforms are upgraded, and the head brands represented by meta and Sony accelerate the iteration of new VR / AR terminals, Overseas giants are expected to release relevant products in 22 years. China's acquisition of VR terminal brand Pico ushers in a new round of all-round development of the industry. Chinese enterprises have made in-depth layout in the VR terminal supply chain and are expected to usher in a new round of rapid growth.
semiconductor material running plate
where are the opportunities next year?
While the sector's growth list is dominated by power semiconductors, IC design and semiconductor equipment companies, semiconductor materials that once attracted much attention are hard to say this year. Related companies such as Anji Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688019) fell 10.34% this year, Shanghai Sinyang Semiconductor Materials Co.Ltd(300236) fell 18.23%, and National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) fell nearly 20%.
However, looking forward to 2022, on the one hand, the pattern of strong demand for semiconductor downstream terminals will not be changed, and the global wafer factories will increase their expansion, but it will take time for the full release of production capacity, and the tight balance between supply and demand will still be maintained; On the other hand, the localization process of semiconductor materials is accelerated, and the national policy guidance is positive and effective. China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that semiconductor materials are expected to usher in an upsurge next year, with high performance and predictable growth, and long-term opportunities outweigh risks.
Implemented in specific segments, silicon wafer, photoresist and wet electronic chemicals have the largest global market scale. The top three materials in China's market scale are photoresist, electronic specialty gas and wet electronic chemicals, with a scale of more than 10 billion yuan. In terms of industry configuration, electronic gas > photoresist > wet electronic chemicals > CMP polishing materials > silicon wafer > photomask > sputtering target.
(Financial Associated Press)
