The price increase of consumer goods has spread.
Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) 24 evening announcement, part of the Niu Lanshan Baijiu price adjustment, the price adjustment range of 20-50 yuan / bottle. Previously, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Xi Jiu, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) and other Baijiu brands announced the price increase. The industry said Baijiu Spring Festival season has opened, the pre holiday price increase or continuous interpretation, the “good start” in the busy season has been increasing.
Coincidentally, on the evening of Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) on the 23rd, the company announced that in view of the sharp rise in raw material prices and labor costs and the continuous rise in enterprise production and operation costs, in order to improve Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) brand strength and competitiveness, the company decided to adjust the prices of some products by 5% – 20%. The total sales of the products involved in 2020 is 360 million yuan, with an average gross profit margin of 29.88%. The product price adjustment plan will be implemented from January 20, 2022.
In fact, a number of mass consumer goods companies have recently announced price increases. If Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) the price increase was announced on December 1, ranging from 2% to 10%, the new price will be implemented from December 25. Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) in November, it was announced to reduce the promotion policy of some quick-frozen rice flour products and quick-frozen surimi products or increase the distribution price by 3% – 10%. The new price has been implemented since December 1, 2021. In addition, Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) also said in response to investors’ questions on the interactive platform that the ex factory prices of some products had been raised.
The price of Baijiu is equal to that of the Baijiu plate. Qianhai securities of East Asia believes that with the landing of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) price, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Moutai’s price increase is expected to gradually fall to the ground, and the high end liquor has a higher degree of certainty.
In addition Baijiu Baijiu is constantly shifting up with the price belt of high-end liquor, and the ceiling of the secondary Baijiu liquor has also been shifting upward. With the continuous growth of high net worth population and the continuous upgrading of consumption, the market space of the second high-end liquor has been constantly opened. Under this background, the sub Baijiu Baijiu enterprises with strong brand strength and channel strength will enjoy the bonus of the industry expansion to a greater extent. The current nodes should focus on the national expansion of the regional high-end liquor leading enterprises.
For the price increase of condiments, the above institutions believe that according to the historical price increase, except for the disturbance of the company’s own business factors, the performance of each company driven by the price increase is better. Firstly, the price increase can hedge the cost pressure. Secondly, once the subsequent cost of the price increase caused by the price increase falls, the company’s performance is expected to usher in a second release.
The price increase will sort out the price system in all links of the market, and rich channel profits will drive sound development. Determined by the rigid demand attribute, the price increase has little impact on the seasoning sales. After the price increase information is released, driven by the rise in valuation, the share price of condiment enterprises will be quickly reflected in a quarter. if the price increase is successful, the profit thickening will be reflected on the report end after 1-2 quarters. The resonance between valuation and performance is realized, and the relevant companies have obvious excess returns.
Caixin Securities pointed out that mass consumer goods are currently in the stage of going out of the bottom, and it is expected that many food companies will welcome performance improvement in 2022. After the pessimism of the popular goods sector was fully reflected this year, the valuation basically returned to a reasonable range, and the popular goods can be used as the key layout direction next year.
Raising prices to promote performance improvement is one of the clearest main lines. It is suggested to pay attention to the sub industry pattern, pay attention to the transmission effect of raising prices and the cost inflection point, and grasp the rhythm of counter attack. In the short term, the pace of demand recovery is still uncertain. It is expected that the transmission speed factor of price increase to downstream consumers varies from industry to industry. The subdivided industries with excellent competition pattern, strong demand toughness and benign channel inventory will benefit from price increase faster, and the certainty of performance improvement will be high. At the same time, the plight of industrial operation often accelerates the reshuffle of the industry. In this round, the leaders of the central molecular industry respond positively, which is expected to gain greater market share and consolidate the leading advantages, which is finally reflected in the improvement of pricing power.
In addition, it is suggested to actively pay attention to the arrival of the price inflection point of main raw and auxiliary materials, and the superposition effect of cost inflection point and price increase is expected to significantly thicken the profitability of relevant companies. At the sub sector level, dairy products are currently recommended, and beer and condiments are gradually distributed. At the company level, recommend Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , focus on Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , focus on Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) . Under the main line of other investments, Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) is recommended and Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) is concerned.
(Financial Associated Press)
