2022 is approaching. When debating the trend of the A-share market next year, major institutions generally believe that the A-share market still has structural investment opportunities. Looking at the world, China's capital market is a bright capital market in the world.
So, where will the A-share Nuggets go in 2022? According to the latest annual strategy reports released by nearly 40 securities companies such as Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) , the three themes of "consumption recovery", "double carbon" and "scientific and technological innovation" were highly recommended, and the interviewed experts also expressed their opinions.
consumption recovery theme:
the four subdivided fields were highly praised
As the global economy gradually moves towards the road of recovery, the theme of consumption recovery has become one of the main investment tracks favored by major institutions.
According to the statistics of the reporter of Securities Daily, 33 of the 39 securities companies in the annual strategy report said they were optimistic about investment opportunities in the consumer sector, accounting for more than 80%.
Further combing, it is found that securities companies are optimistic about investment opportunities with the theme of consumption recovery, mainly for the following four reasons:
First, the fundamentals of the consumer sector are expected to pick up and the cost performance will improve.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that from now to the next three to six months, A-share investors can pay attention to the consumer areas with relatively sufficient stock price adjustment in the middle and lower reaches and still clear medium and long-term prospects, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, food and beverage, Internet and entertainment, automobiles and parts, household appliances, light industry and household appliances, etc.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that the current profit growth and fund allocation of the consumer industry are at a low level. Looking back, the fundamentals of the consumer sector are expected to pick up and the cost performance will be improved.
Second, the consumer sector experienced valuation repair due to the improvement of volume and price.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) pointed out that the overall pace of consumption recovery extends from mandatory to optional. Since the beginning of this year, the price of optional consumption has risen in response to the rise of the cost side. After the price rise, the price is rigid, the price of raw materials has a downward trend in 2021, the gross profit margin has room for improvement, or there is valuation repair due to the improvement of volume and price.
Dongguan Securities said that the mass consumer goods sector has recently ushered in a price increase. Considering that there is still some pressure on terminal demand and channel inventory, the impact of price increase on this year's performance may be relatively limited. It is expected that the performance and profitability of mass consumer goods companies will benefit from product price increase in the first half of 2022. At the same time, at present, the pressure of cost rise is slowing down and the supervision of community group purchase is becoming stricter. From the medium and long-term perspective, the cost performance of mass consumer goods will gradually appear.
Third, the disturbance of the epidemic to consumption has been further weakened.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the fundamental highlights of marginal improvement catalysis of repressive factors this year will gradually appear in the first half of next year, the disturbance of the epidemic on consumption will be further weakened, and the consumption of emerging consumer goods and services is expected to continue to recover.
China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) believes that it is necessary to pay attention to some opportunities in the consumption sector. The price expectation includes condiments, Baijiu, aquaculture and so on. The expected improvement of the epidemic situation includes catering and tourism; It is expected that the pattern will improve and the profit will continue to improve, including the express industry.
Fourth, consumption style is expected to outperform the market.
Huachuang securities expects that the inter-bank market interest rate will gradually begin to decline in the early 2022, when the growth style is in full swing. Around the second quarter of 2022, the scissors difference between PPI and CPI will turn negative year-on-year, and the time window for consumption style, especially optional consumption, to outperform the market will officially come.
In terms of sub sectors, among the 33 2022 strategy reports promising consumption themes, medicine was mentioned by 11 securities companies, with the largest number of promising companies. The second is food and beverage, which is favored by 10 securities companies, and home appliances and cars are favored by 7 securities companies.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, told reporters in the Securities Daily that big consumption is one of the main investment directions of A share market in 2022. Baijiu, medicine and food and beverage are called "three swordsmen" of consumption. This is also the three most important subdivision direction in the traditional consumption growth. Consumer stocks have now rebounded from the bottom, and it is expected that the king will return in 2022. More and more funds will realize that only by consuming white horse stocks with brand value, long-term stable growth ability and high return on net assets can they cross the bull bear cycle. In his view, 2022 is likely to usher in a big year for consumer stocks.
With regard to the pharmaceutical field, Chen Mengjie, chief strategic analyst of YueKai Securities Research Institute, said that innovation in the pharmaceutical sector is still the main theme. In recent years, under the influence of policies such as consistency evaluation, pharmaceutical anti-corruption, volume procurement and medical insurance negotiation, China's pharmaceutical sector reform has entered a deep-water area. The internal plate differentiation of the pharmaceutical and biological industry is obvious. The profits of the generic pharmaceutical industry are thinning, and the profits of the innovative drug industry are rising. A number of pharmaceutical enterprises with innovative drugs are gradually coming to the fore. In the standardized and centralized development of the industry, the industry removes the weeds and retains the talents, and the competition pattern is expected to improve in the future. Looking forward to 2022, the pharmaceutical and biological sector is gradually entering the structural stage of plate rotation and obvious differentiation of strength. In the face of rapidly changing market conditions and constantly transforming mainstream hot spots, it is recommended that investors grasp the investment opportunity of "high quality + true innovation".
Regarding Baijiu in the field of food and beverage, First Capital Securities Co.Ltd(002797) Securities said that CPI was moderately recovering, moderately loose monetary policy, policy bottom economy, intensified policy of "common prosperity" and gradual control of epidemic situation, which helped Baijiu market continue. At present, Baijiu plate valuation has returned to central location in the past 5 years, and profitability is obviously higher than all A shares.
In terms of dairy products and beer, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that dairy enterprises have increased the layout and innovation of new products, the competition in the industry has remained relaxed, and the profit growth rate is expected to be higher than that in 2018 and 2019; Beer sales have stabilized, and the improvement of ton price has become the main logic.
With regard to the field of household appliances, Dongguan Securities believes that the overall profitability margin of the white power industry has improved, and the demand is expected to benefit from the pull of the completion and repair of real estate. It is suggested that investors continue to pay attention to the big power leaders with strong comprehensive strength, harvest period for overseas layout and high valuation and cost performance. In addition, with the social development and the improvement of living standards, consumers are increasingly pursuing the health, intelligence and high quality of household appliances, and the consumption upgrading trend remains unchanged. It is suggested to continue to pay close attention to the emerging categories that maintain a high outlook in the household appliance industry, such as integrated stove, sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , intelligent micro projector, intelligent portable massager, etc.
With regard to the automotive sector, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that two factors deserve attention. On the one hand, it is expected that the replacement demand will be superimposed on the transfer demand in 2022, and the sales volume of the industry will grow steadily; Under the background of gradual easing of chips and downward high prices of bulk raw materials and sea freight, it is expected that the overall profit of the industry is expected to improve. On the other hand, looking for companies with stronger alpha attributes of parts and vehicles, it is expected that the profit growth rate of these companies will far exceed the industry average, and their profits and valuations are expected to resonate.
"double carbon" theme:
five segments are recommended
Most institutional research reports believe that the green energy revolution represented by "double carbon" will still be one of the most important investment lines of A-Shares in 2022.
According to the statistics of the reporter of Securities Daily, in the 2022 investment strategy report released by 39 securities companies, the proportion of securities companies referring to the "double carbon" theme reached 64.10%. Their logic of favoring the "double carbon" theme is mainly based on the following three points:
First, the policy dividend will be released and the energy industry will be transformed and upgraded.
Chen Mengjie told the Securities Daily, "China's economy is undergoing active transformation and development, and the goal of 'carbon neutralization' will be achieved by 2060. It can be predicted that 'carbon neutralization' will be the main line of long-term policies in the future. With the gradual clarity of the realization path and the gradual implementation of relevant supporting policies, the policies encourage the development of new energy, which is expected to bring development opportunities for wind power, photovoltaic, hydrogen energy, energy storage and other industries."
Second, the "double carbon" theme sub circuit has entered the recovery cycle.
Ping An Securities believes that under the goal of "carbon neutralization", China's energy structure will usher in subversive adjustment, fossil energy will be gradually reduced or withdrawn, and clean energy such as photovoltaic, wind energy and hydrogen energy will become the main source of electricity. The 14th five year plan proposes to adhere to both centralized and distributed development, vigorously improve the scale of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, accelerate the development of distributed energy in the East and middle part, orderly develop offshore wind power, build a number of clean energy bases with complementary multi energy, and increase the proportion of non fossil energy in the total energy consumption to about 20%. Therefore, wind power, photovoltaic and other sub circuits have entered the recovery cycle.
Third, the market demand continues to rise, and the "double carbon" theme track is profitable.
Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, told the Securities Daily, "If one word is used to describe the A-share market in 2021, it can be summarized as the 'new cycle'. The rise of the new energy sector runs through the whole year of 2021, and the cumulative increase of the new energy sector has ranked first since this year. With the strong support of the 'double carbon' policy, there is more incremental space for photovoltaic and wind power in the future, driving the profit restoration of the 'double carbon' segment track. Therefore, the 'double carbon' in 2022 The theme is still the best investment theme. "
From the perspective of subdivided fields, photovoltaic and wind power are the most mentioned under the theme of "double carbon" in the 2022 investment strategy report of many institutions, and 10 securities companies focus on analyzing their future trend in the report. In addition, new energy vehicles, energy storage and hydrogen energy are also the areas recommended by securities companies, and 7 securities companies are optimistic about them.
"It is a general trend for new energy to replace traditional energy. In order to achieve the goal of 'double carbon', we must vigorously develop clean energy. Although the new energy sector has risen for more than a year, 2022 is still a main investment line, especially the leading stocks of the four sub circuits of photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, wind power and hydrogen energy." Yang Delong thinks.
With regard to wind power, Dongguan Securities believes that as onshore wind power enters the parity stage this year, the price of wind turbines continues to decline, and the manufacturers of complete wind turbines pass pressure to the upstream parts enterprises. In the first half of 2022, it is expected that the price of raw materials of bulk commodities is expected to fall, and the cost pressure of wind power parts enterprises is expected to decrease. At the same time, with the promotion of the construction of large desert and desert scenery bases in China and the accelerated development of offshore wind power in coastal provinces, there is still a huge growth space for wind turbine leaders and parts manufacturers in the future.
With regard to new energy vehicles, Ping An Securities said that at present, the global penetration of new energy vehicles has entered a steep upward period, and the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry has developed rapidly. At present, the layout of the industrial chain is complete, and the development of power batteries is leading the world, which is still worthy of attention.
With regard to energy storage, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) believes that the target of installed capacity, market position and business model of energy storage in 2025 have been clarified, relevant national and local policies have been further improved, and the development of energy storage will be accelerated; Superimposing the application of new derived ecosystems such as distributed power stations, charging piles and microgrids, the energy storage on the generation side, grid side and user side will meet new application needs. We are optimistic about the three sub tracks of lithium battery, inverter and energy storage system integration under the development opportunity of energy storage.
scientific and technological innovation theme:
the three subdivided tracks are the most concerned
Every sublimation in the field of science and technology will lead the "secondary entrepreneurship" of physical enterprises. As an important part of the national economy, the growth of science and technology enabled enterprises is gradually on the new stage of the development of the times.
According to the statistics of the reporter of Securities Daily, among the 39 securities companies' investment strategy reports in 2022, 16 mentioned the theme of scientific and technological innovation, among which semiconductor, communication and military industry were the most promising.
There are three main reasons to be optimistic about the theme of scientific and technological innovation:
First, the number of invention patents in A-share manufacturing industry increased significantly. Since this year, companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen have had 122000 invention patents, a year-on-year increase of 1232% compared with 9162 in 2020.
Secondly, the achievements of scientific and technological innovation are outstanding. According to the World Intellectual Property Organization's global innovation index report, in 2021, China's comprehensive innovation capability ranked 12th in the world, two places higher than last year.
Third, the policy is constantly favorable. All regions have successively issued the "14th five year plan" for scientific and technological innovation, and strive to draw a good blueprint for scientific and technological innovation.
For example, the Beijing plan for the construction of an international scientific and technological innovation center during the 14th Five Year Plan period clearly states that by 2025, the Beijing international scientific and technological innovation center will be basically formed and built into a major scientific center and innovation highland in the world; By 2035, Beijing International Science and technology innovation center will lead the world in innovation, competitiveness and radiation.
The 14th five year plan for Shanghai to build a science and technology innovation center with global influence proposes that by 2025, it will strive to become an important source of new scientific discoveries, new technological inventions, new industrial directions and new development ideas, and lay a solid foundation for forming the core function of a science and technology innovation center city with global influence in 2030.
Under the theme of scientific and technological innovation in the 2022 investment strategy report of various institutions, the most mentioned are the three segments of semiconductor, communication and military industry.
In terms of the semiconductor industry, since this year, the semiconductor equipment sector has increased by more than 62%, ranking at the forefront of the increase list of Shenwan secondary industry.
"Technology stocks have a certain ability to cross the cycle. The hard technology industry supported by national policies for a long time is less disturbed by the macro economy." Kang Chongli, vice president of YueKai Securities Research Institute, told the Securities Daily that under the background of innovation cycle, improvement of domestic penetration and return of industry talents, the semiconductor sector has the superposition drive of three factors: product iteration, category expansion and customer breakthrough. It is suggested to select the target from the perspectives of domestic substitution, industry cycle and market share improvement.
In terms of communication industry, with the rapid development trend of industrial Internet, Beidou navigation and positioning and other applications, the Internet of everything will lead a new generation of technological revolution, and the information technology application with 5g as the carrier will create new production value for society and enterprises.
"5g infrastructure is advancing steadily, and the capital expenditure of operators is expected to increase moderately in 2022." Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) analyst Li Tong said, "Firstly, the increase of 5g penetration rate drives the improvement of ARPU, and the emerging businesses of operators continue to grow rapidly. The slowdown of capital expenditure growth and co construction and sharing alleviate the pressure on the construction and maintenance of base stations of operators and increase profits; secondly, with the stabilization of upstream raw material prices and the economies of scale brought by 5g scale department, the gross profit margin of main communication equipment manufacturers is expected to continue to improve. At the same time, due to Huawei's The strategic contraction in the hardware field will continue to benefit Zte Corporation(000063) in the dual giant pattern in the field of communication main equipment; Third, as the capital development support of overseas cloud manufacturers continues to grow and the capital expenditure of Chinese cloud manufacturers bottoms out, the shipments of optical modules are expected to increase in 2022, including the shipments of high-speed optical modules. "
Li Tong believes that 5g cross industry integration will go deeper and wider in 2022, and 5g applications will have more investment opportunities. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the two main segments of infrastructure and application.
With the continuous expansion of the market share of communication equipment, the corresponding A-share market communication sector may usher in valuation repair. As of December 24, the P / E ratio of A-share communication sector was 37.04 times, and the valuation was at a medium low in the past 10 years.
In terms of national defense and military industry, the military industry is the key area of previous state-owned enterprise reform, and 2022 is the last year of the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform. The interviewed experts generally believe that only from the factor of "market-oriented deep reform", the asset securitization and equity incentive of the military industry are expected to speed up, and the market opportunity signal is obvious, which can be described as a standard "Changpo thick snow" track.
(Securities Daily)
