Black Friday.
On December 24, after the A-Shares opened higher in the morning, they were no longer able to attack. After that, the market plunged rapidly, and the three major indexes fell across the board. The gem index fell more than 2% and fell below 3300 points.
As of the close, the three major indexes fell across the board. On the increase list, the traditional Chinese medicine sector played a role in stabilizing the market, and the consumer sector rose, playing a defensive role. On the decline list, ningwang’s big pullback brought down the whole concept of battery, and the leading concepts of new energy battery all retreated.
For the reasons for the sharp decline of the new energy sector represented by lithium battery on the 24th, fund companies generally believe that it mainly comes from three bad news. First, the sodium ion battery industry is advancing rapidly; Second, the supply of lithium resources may increase; The three is the widespread dissemination of a public official account.
The public offering unanimously believes that the new energy vehicle sector is still the top choice for investment next year, and will usher in a better boarding opportunity again after adjustment. However, the era of simple and extensive investment in the new energy vehicle industry chain may have passed, but the era of fine and sustainable investment may have just begun.
multi interest and empty led to the callback of new energy sector
the current transaction is crowded
On December 24, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) experienced a rare sharp decline, with an intraday drop of 8.35%, the largest decline in nearly half a year, the stock price hit a new low in nearly two months, and the market value evaporated more than 120 billion yuan a day. As of the close, the share price fell 7.28%, the turnover was 14.3 billion yuan, and the market value fell 105.5 billion yuan a day.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) after hitting the record high share price of 692 yuan / share on the 3rd of this month, it fell all the way, and the market value has evaporated about 300 billion yuan in less than a month. Just on Monday, its share price also suffered a sharp decline, closing down 6.29%.
“Ningwang” is the largest power heavy stock on the gem and a leading lithium battery enterprise. Driven by its influence, the gem once fell by more than 2%, and lithium batteries, salt lake lithium, solid-state batteries, new energy vehicles and other sectors fell sharply one after another. Among them, the lithium battery sector index fell by more than 2.6%, and the lithium mine index once fell by more than 4%.
Ping An Fund believes that the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) crash is mainly due to the widespread dissemination of official account and the discussion of the US media, which triggered the market’s concern over the competition pattern of the battery and the global political and trading environment.
From the news level, Huaxia Fund believes that there are some bad news incentives for the adjustment of the lithium battery sector. First, the sodium ion battery industry is advancing rapidly. It is reported that zhongkehai sodium has reached cooperation with China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Three Gorges capital and the people’s Government of Fuyang City, Anhui Province to jointly build the world’s first large-scale production line of sodium ion batteries. The market is worried about the impact on the original line; Second, according to media news, new geological discoveries jointly form a huge lithium ore belt with a length of about 4000 km, and the supply of lithium resources may increase; Third, under the continuous price rise trend of lithium carbonate, the market is worried about the affordability of downstream vehicle manufacturers.
For the reasons for the recent correction of the new energy industry chain, Xie Tianhui, assistant fund manager of ChuangJin Hexin, said that the essence lies in the excessive increase of the early sector, the valuation is relatively high, and the sector itself has the demand to digest the valuation. Meanwhile, the price increase of a Baijiu is also expected to lead to the flow of market funds from the relatively high value plate, or further catalyzed the intra day callback of the new energy sector.
In addition, the market’s concerns about the new energy sector are mainly focused on the following aspects: first, it is worried that the sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 are less likely to exceed expectations. Second, it is worried that the raw material sector led by lithium may face a shortage in 2022, which will affect the output of new energy vehicles and then the demand. Third, the decline of China’s subsidies and the postponement of US policies.
According to the analysis of Wang Wei, fund manager of Tongtai fund, the A-share market in 2021 has ups and downs and significant structural market characteristics. New energy related industry chain is the most popular sector in the market this year, but the recent performance of lithium battery sector is not satisfactory, mainly for the following reasons.
“On the one hand, the market is worried that the tax incentive policy for electric vehicles in the United States may be variable; on the other hand, due to the large increase in the price of lithium salt, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) The increase of vehicle cost may affect the sales volume; In addition, near the end of the year, there are many floating profits in the lithium battery sector, which needs to be cashed; At the same time, the central economic conference laid the tone of steady growth. Affected by this, the marginal improvement of some plates triggered the flow of funds to these plates, forming a rotation between plates. ”
Kong Xuebing, fund manager of Jinxin fund, said from a longer-term perspective that over the past two years, electric vehicles have become the hottest sector in the whole market, with the largest cumulative increase, the industry valuation is at a historic high and the transactions are the most crowded, which have buried hidden dangers for the rapid adjustment of the sector in the near future.
Xie Yi, fund manager of Nord fund, analyzed and said, “recently, we have seen a certain degree of correction in the whole market, and this correction is roughly concentrated in two areas, one is the industry with good performance this year and excellent stock price performance throughout the year, but the premium is significantly too high, and the other is the investment track with more performance expectations than substance and partial theme.”
In Xie Yi’s opinion, such adjustment has been carried out for some time. It is possible that the full fiscal year is coming to an end, the performance factors begin to gradually enter the market’s vision, and the market spontaneously modifies the valuation and performance of individual stocks. This is the performance of capital rationality and the maturity of the market.
short term disturbance does not affect the investment value of new energy sector
the industry is expected to be more differentiated
Many fund companies believe that the disturbance factors of the short-term news do not change the long-term investment value of the new energy sector, but the internal differentiation of the industry will further increase in the future, and it is more necessary to select stocks.
Huaxia Fund judged that looking back on the market, new energy is the core main line of the market this year. The fundamental trend is better than expected. At the same time, the valuation has also increased significantly, and the cumulative share price has increased relatively.
In the current position of the sector, Huaxia Fund believes that the overall fluctuation trend will continue, and the overvalued value will have digestion pressure and demand in stages. In addition, we should be alert to the possible reversal of supply and demand, and the stock price volatility of such varieties may be higher.
However, Huaxia Fund also believes that the new energy vehicle sector is still the top choice for investment next year, and will usher in a better boarding opportunity again after adjustment.
“At present, the production and manufacturing of new energy vehicles and batteries are still in an unprecedented business cycle. The competition in the new energy industry is a market-oriented behavior. The speech attacks of individual countries or media can not change the current situation of the strong competitiveness of the head company, nor can they change the competitive pattern of the industry. The dual carbon theme with new energy as the core will still be the main market in the next few years, which will be disturbed in the short term It does not affect the long-term investment value. ” For the current market with continuous shock adjustment, Ping An Fund believes that it can be cautious, but there is no lack of optimism.
Kong Xuebing, manager of Jinxin fund, also said, “According to the law of industrial development, with the rapid increase of electrification permeability and the rapid growth of the volume of ownership, the hype of the car making links has been relatively adequate. Some of the industrial chain’s general quality or even worse companies have accumulated huge gains in the short term, and the valuation tends to be bubble. The rapid expansion of production capacity may lead to the deterioration of the competition pattern in the next 1-2 years, and the performance of some companies. There is great uncertainty. In fact, since July, we have been cautious about the stock price outlook of some companies with low competitive barriers in the automotive electrification sector. ” Kong Xuebing said.
For the new energy vehicle industry, Kong Xuebing insisted on the judgment that “electrification is only the foundation, and intelligence is the sea of stars”. He believes that in the future, those technology-based companies that can really help car enterprises improve their intelligence level and give users a better car experience will have the opportunity to share the biggest dividend in the wave of new energy vehicles.
Xie Tianhui, assistant fund manager of ChuangJin Hexin, believes that new energy belongs to a high growth industry, and it is normal for it to fluctuate slightly in the short term. From the long-term perspective, the new energy track is still one of the industries with large space and certainty in the whole A-share market, and the fundamentals and prosperity have not changed significantly.
“However, the industry is expected to be more differentiated, and the general rising market may be unsustainable. We need to focus on mining leading stocks with a better competitive pattern.” Xie Tianhui stressed.
TEDA Manulife Fund believes that the boom growth next year is still expected to become the main line of the market and can grasp the allocation opportunities after the correction. It is expected that the economic growth rate may fall next year, and the net profit growth rate of all a may also fall sharply to near 0. The boom of new energy sectors such as electric vehicles and photovoltaic is still expected to continue, and the high growth is commendable. At the same time, the central economic work conference set the tone of “stable growth”, and it is expected that liquidity will remain loose, the boom growth sector still has further performance opportunities, and the configuration value will be more prominent after the phased correction.
market style will tend to be balanced
steady growth and carbon neutralization line deserve attention
For the future style and investment opportunities, Ping An fund predicts that in the short term, the market style tends to be balanced. With the successive implementation of steady growth policies, continue to actively allocate the following sectors: steady growth lines, such as infrastructure chain, real estate chain, finance, food and beverage, etc; military project; Automotive intelligence and parts; Carbon neutralization and carbon peak related industries, etc.
For next year’s market, Xie Yi is frankly optimistic. The inflection point of economic fundamentals will probably appear and the recovery will continue. Market patterns and investment opportunities may be richer than this year. Due to differences in monetary policies, China will probably be better than overseas, which is a year worth looking forward to for A-share investors.
Taida Hongli Fund said that the Baijiu plate is expected to drive price rises, showing bright eyes, followed by tracking price increases landing process. From the medium-term perspective, the follow-up A-Shares are still dominated by structural opportunities. From the perspective of credit cycle, the first half of next year will be in the stage of credit expansion, and the profit growth rate of all A-Shares is highly likely to gradually decline in the first half of next year. In the case of credit expansion and falling profits, from historical experience, it is expected that A-Shares are more dominated by structural opportunities.
In terms of configuration, TEDA Manulife recommends balanced configuration. In addition to the outstanding performance of electric vehicles, photovoltaic and military industry this year, the boom growth sector can focus on the construction of new power market. At the same time, it is expected that after March next year, with the decline of the credit cycle base and the force of the steady growth policy, the value style is expected to gradually highlight, and we can pay attention to the trading opportunities in the real estate chain.
Despite the recent intensification of fluctuations, the subdivided field of the new energy sector is still favored by many institutions and fund investors. Huaxia Fund said that on the whole, under the demand for profit taking at the end of the year, the sectors with high growth have certain short-term adjustment pressure, but jingkuangdu investment is a verified long-term effective main line investment logic. After the release of selling pressure, the new energy sector is still one of the main lines that will be active again and again next year. It is suggested to focus on it.
Wang Wei, fund manager of Tongtai fund, believes that the trend of increasing the long-term penetration of new energy vehicles has not changed, and with the intensive introduction of new models by various auto enterprises, he remains optimistic about the sales volume of the new year.
Secondly, with the increase of battery material supply end, there will be no general rising market similar to this year; We need to pay more attention to stock selection and choose to have α Leading companies, which have the advantage of leading peers on the cost side.
In addition to lithium batteries, Wang Wei said that other segments also have opportunities in the long run and will maintain close attention. Specifically, for the wind power photovoltaic sector, the long-term direction is optimistic, but there is a lack of catalysis in the short term; It may be necessary to wait for the landing of the bidding order and the clarity of the price negotiation results of the industrial chain in the new year. Photovoltaic needs to wait. With the decline of silicon material price, the module price returns to normal, resulting in an increase in production scheduling. The arrival of these catalysts may not be far away.
(China Fund News)
