Viewpoint: according to the latest PMI data, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. In the short term, the “monster stocks” that have risen sharply have fallen back, and the overall adjustment of the relatively high varieties has been made. The blue chips with low underestimation and the Baijiu liquor with defensive properties are performing well, and are expected to become the main trend of funds in the next year and the first quarter of next year.
In the morning, both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high and fluctuated after the opening. After a slight rise in the session, they immediately ushered in a diving, followed by a continuous decline. The Shanghai index swallowed up yesterday’s rising space, while the Shenzhen Component Index retreated to the starting point since the rebound in the previous two days. In addition, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) once plunged by more than 6%, leading the gem to decline, and the gem also ushered in a new low adjusted recently. In specific sectors, food and beverage led the rise, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, public utilities, medicine and biology led the rise, while most sectors were lower, power equipment led the decline, and non-ferrous metals, steel, automobiles and communications led the decline.
The two characteristics of the market today are the one that led by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , the largest drop in new energy, and the continued warming of the Baijiu plate led by Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . The core factor of the sharp decline of new energy is the retreat with a relatively high cumulative increase. Of course, the adjustment of the plate did not start today. The phased top of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) at the beginning of this month has already appeared. At the same time, for some time, Tesla, the world’s strongest new energy vehicle stock, recently fell below $1000 from $1243.39. In fact, the substantive impact is self-evident. Moreover, the valuation of many battery varieties is relatively high after continuous sharp rise. Even if the boom is strong, it is inevitable that there will be repetition and retreat.
On the contrary, Baijiu plate, the recent good. On the one hand, the largest equity fund in the A share market, the CSI Baijiu index fund, announced the increase of the purchase quota. The class a share limit was increased from 100000 yuan to 200000 yuan, and the class C share limit was increased from 5000 yuan to 100000 yuan. Obviously, the increase of the quota will also introduce the funds to chase the fund, and then enhance the fund’s continued allocation of the Baijiu plate. On the other hand, Baijiu price rises or will boost Baijiu stocks. Previously, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Gujing Gong, Baijiu and other liquor enterprises have announced that the price of products has risen to varying degrees, and the recent price increase for Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) is also coming to a heated discussion. For example, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) believes that the timing of the main price increase of Moutai is ripe. In addition, for Baijiu industry, the boom is still at a high level, the overall development logic is clear, the valuation after the stock price adjustment has also entered a reasonable interval, the industry repair market will also be re opened.
Therefore, the performance of one high and one low fully shows that the overall switching of the current market style is relatively obvious. If the overall stability of undervalued blue chips is superimposed for half a month, this tendency is more obvious. Of course, these obvious reasons are mainly the opening of the monetary easing cycle under the central bank’s RRR reduction and LPR reduction, the boost of valuation repair and the expectation of low-level varieties to make up the rise.
Overall, under the trend of monetary easing, the index has an obvious boost effect, and the overall adjustment space is relatively limited. With the policy of steady growth, we continue to be optimistic about the market in the next year and the first quarter of next year. In the recent consolidation process, investors can still consider bargain hunting for appropriate allocation. In terms of specific opportunities, it is suggested to explore from three angles: first, the “steady growth” or phased main line from the policy perspective, and the involved sectors can track building materials, construction machinery, food and beverage and household appliances; Secondly, it can also be superimposed with varieties with high attention to funds in the north, such as financial and other value blue chips, in which it can focus on the securities sector with undervalued value and good performance; Third, science and technology and new energy are mainly varieties with relatively uncertain growth under the downward pressure of the economy.
(Jufeng Finance)
