For the coming 2022, we put forward a new strategic view of "earning beta repair performance and alpha valuation", "looking for beta with profit repair and looking for it α High quality target ".
The inventory cycle enters the price defensive period. For the investment in chemical industry, the inventory cycle of industrial products is still the most effective β。 Our strategy strictly follows the fluctuation of the inventory cycle. Since the inventory cycle occurs every four years, following the inventory cycle is still the most effective strategy for us to invest in the chemical industry cycle at the annual level. Make price attack during passive inventory removal and active inventory replenishment, and make price defense during passive inventory replenishment and active inventory removal. At present, we are in the switching period from inventory cycle price attack to price defense strategy. Historical experience tells us to make money first β Performance, earn again α It is very important to understand the direction of the cycle. In the coming 2022, our strategy lies in beta's defense, looking for beta's profit recovery along the downward thinking of chemical price cycle, and looking for beta from it α High quality subject matter.
The double carbon melody will continue. In the medium and long term, we are still optimistic about the inflation trend brought by the dual carbon theme. Double carbon promotes the cost of traditional energy on the supply side, improves the resource return center and profit sustainability, promotes the growth of new energy on the demand side, and improves the valuation center. Although the directions of long and short cycles are different, they are not contradictory from the perspective of nesting.
We suggest to find beta repair along the following main lines: 1) shipping damage: export products are expected to pick up after shipping recovery; 2) Downward movement of raw materials: the subject matter with damaged raw materials will receive downward movement of raw materials in the second half of the inventory cycle; 3) Automobile downstream: the sales volume of passenger cars and trucks will decline year-on-year, and the industries affecting profits will usher in month on month improvement and upward cycle in 2022; 4) Improvement of the epidemic situation: industries damaged by the impact of the epidemic situation on demand will usher in a recovery of demand after the promotion of specific drugs and the alleviation of the epidemic situation; 5) Sino US easing: the reduction of Sino US tariffs has led to an increase in export profits; 6) CPI upward: the transmission from PPI to CPI brings investment opportunities in agro chemical and other related industries; 7) Double carbon supply contraction: the double carbon policy has led to the continuous contraction of the supply side of high-energy consumption industries, and the profitability of resources and resource products is optimistic for a long time; 8) Dual carbon demand pull:
The continuous pull of new energy demand provides upward space for valuation for relevant enterprises.
stay β In the defensive stage, we will focus more on α We plan to explore the growth targets from the following tracks (not limited to this): 1) specialized and special new companies; 2) Tire industry; 3) Hydrogen energy direction; 4) Degradable plastics industry; 5) Biosynthesis direction; 6) Recycling industry; 7) Purification and filtration industry; 8) Membrane industry; 9) Carbon fiber industry; 10) aerogel industry. Key companies: Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) , Kaili Catalyst & New Materials Co.Ltd(688269) , Cathay Biotech Inc(688065) , Hunan Sokan New Materials Co.Ltd(688157) , Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi'An(300487) , Pan Asian Microvent Tech (Jiangsu) Corporation(688386) .
In the second half of the inventory cycle, industries and companies with unsustainable prosperity will usher in a downward trend, but there are still high-quality cyclical growth stocks in the chemical industry. We believe that in the second half of the year, cyclical growth stocks will realize industrial upgrading and transformation in the downward stage of the industry and usher in a good opportunity for layout and warehouse building.
Risk warning: safety accidents affect normal commencement; Rapid iteration of technical route; Changes in environmental protection policies
（ Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) ）
