In December this year, the northbound capital exceeded the 400 billion yuan mark, almost doubling compared with 2020. However, with the deepening process of foreign capital rushing to raise scarce sectors and overseas entering the tightening cycle, the inflow scale may decline next year. Entering the era of "true net worth" and with great income pressure, the bank financial subsidiary (hereinafter referred to as "financial subsidiary") will become the main increment of the A-share market.
According to an interview with the first financial reporter, at present, most financial managers are busy completing the net worth transformation before the end of the year, so the proportion of equity investment has decreased this year, the trend of overweight equity next year will speed up, and strengthening cooperation with public funds will be the mainstream model.
Gao Ting, director of Nomura Oriental International Research Department, told the first financial reporter that under the influence of overseas monetary policy, it is predicted that the inflow of foreign capital will drop to 200 billion yuan in 2022; Although the fund-raising scale of public funds is increasing, the month on month growth rate will decline; Bank financial management's allocation of A-Shares is expected to gradually increase with the end of the transition period of the new asset management regulations. It is expected that there will be an inflow of nearly 300 billion yuan per year in the next five years.
overseas capital inflow or slowdown under the interest rate increase cycle
When developed markets are liquid and optimistic, emerging markets tend to get relatively abundant capital inflows. vice versa.
Although international institutions are generally optimistic about the trend of A-Shares in 2022 and believe that there will still be an inflow of nearly 200 billion yuan from the north, it is difficult to compete with 2021. Gao Ting told reporters that the A-Shares were mainly influenced by two factors: first, foreign investors believed that A-Shares did have some overseas targets, such as Baijiu (Baijiu). Second, when the overseas market sentiment is optimistic and the risk preference is high, it will also bring relatively abundant capital into a shares, because the emerging market is a high-risk market in the hearts of international investors. This year, central banks around the world released a lot of liquidity, and US stocks gained nearly 20%. Connected data datayes! According to the data, as of the closing on December 24, the net inflow of northbound funds during the year reached 44 billion yuan.
In 2022, the above supporting factors will subside. The Federal Reserve announced last week to accelerate the contraction of the table and hinted at raising interest rates from April 2022 and three times in the next two years; On the same day, the Bank of England unexpectedly announced an interest rate increase of 15 basis points, and the ultra dove argument of the European Central Bank also converged; At the interest rate meeting in December, the Bank of Japan said that it would extend the emergency financing of small enterprises for six months, but would stop buying corporate bonds at the end of the financial year (March 2022). The sudden "Hawk turn" made investors worry about overseas financial assets with high valuations.
In addition, the recent measures of China Securities Regulatory Commission to crack down on "fake North Water" also once impacted market sentiment. However, the impact is far less than the impact of changes in overseas conditions. Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund told reporters that from the actual situation, the stock market value held by Chinese funded institutions land stock connect accounts for less than 4% of the funds going north, and the transaction amount accounts for about 1% of the North Trading, and 98% of the investors have opened A-share securities accounts, which is expected to have little impact on the market.
financial funds are expected to increase by 300 billion yuan per year
However, the medium and long-term trend of structural funds entering A-Shares has not changed, but the main force has changed, and financial funds will take over.
Gao Ting told reporters, "previously, we had roadshows with a number of financial sub customers. The income pressure of financial sub customers is great. We hope to thicken the income by adding equity assets." However, he said that this is a relatively long trend. The scale of financial management funds is as high as nearly 28 trillion yuan, which will not be achieved overnight. The operation of financial management will take time to mature. It is expected that there will be an inflow of nearly 300 billion yuan per year in the next five years.
According to the reporter, before the end of this year, all dalicaizi are overweight to prepare for the "true net worth" transformation. At the beginning of December, the reporter received a short message from the financial management subsidiary of a joint-stock bank, saying that according to the regulatory requirements of the guiding opinions on standardizing the asset management business of financial institutions, On December 2, 2021, the product manager plans to carry out net worth transformation (i.e. from "expected rate of return product" to "net worth product") for the product you currently hold [XX bank cash Jinbao (No. 3) RMB financial product], and the original principal and undistributed income held by the investor will be converted at a net value of 1.00. After the transformation, the product realizes daily dividend reinvestment and other settings. If the above adjustment is not accepted, please redeem the product before [15:45, December 2, 2021].
Previously, the first financial reporter reported that the net value of most financial products was stable, which mainly depended on the amortized cost method. After several years of net worth transformation, in the regulatory space that allows some fixed development products to adopt the amortized cost method, the financial management children who devote themselves to "flushing the scale" issue a large number of medium and short-term fixed development products with a period of 7 days, 30 days, 3 months and half a year. These are the "sharp tools for scale" with the greatest demand, and most of these products are cost valued customers, configured with non-public bonds and other assets, so that the net value of the products does not fluctuate, which also improves the customer experience and income of short-term products. However, in the second half of this year, it is clear that the amortized cost method needs to withdraw from the historical stage.
Many financial sub investment managers and principals told reporters that overweight equity assets is the direction of transformation. "However, in view of the fact that the equity investment capacity of the wealth management sub still needs to be built, the wealth management sub is also a public fund, mainly to select good fund products and managers. Next year, it may increase the issuance of products similar to public fof." A financial sub investment manager of a joint-stock bank told reporters.
"Sooner or later, we should make a net worth transformation. The financial manager starts to exercise from building a public stock fund fof and learn from public funds." A financial sub investment manager of a large state-owned bank told reporters earlier. According to the reporter, the proportion of rational Caizi's stock investment has increased to 20%, and there is no lack of Caizi who build a stock direct investment team.
control withdrawal and strive for excess return
Compared with public funds, the risk preference of financial capital customers is lower, so there is a greater need to control withdrawal.
Taking Huihua financial, which took the lead in issuing pure stock financial products, as an example, Dong Weiwei, director of equity allocation of Huihua financial, said that the "lying win" style of Mao assets, which continued to win in 2019 and 2020, began to expire around the Spring Festival in February this year, valuation constraints began to emerge, and the expected prosperity became the core driving factor of the market. The boom of some industry leaders (especially those related to real estate) turned significantly, resulting in the continuous decline of stock prices. It can be seen that the overall market is volatile this year, the upstream outperforms the downstream, the growth outperforms the value, and the small market outperforms the large market. Therefore, the manager needs to make a basic and accurate judgment on the market first. In terms of specific operation, financial products need to pay special attention to withdrawal control, which needs to be carried out in an active and intelligent way.
He said that in the combination construction, the core satellite strategy and barbell strategy were adopted respectively. The former refers to the configuration with one core direction, and the other "satellites" operate around the core. Mainly focus on the growth direction and tactically grasp the phased opportunities of consumption, cycle, medicine and other industries; The latter refers to the balance between the left and right sides, which will be more applied to the situation that some growth stocks encounter headwinds in stages. Long term growth stocks are still optimistic about the direction, but in the case of short-term headwind, structural adjustment will tilt to other directions.
"Due to the high valuation of Companies in some boom tracks, the fluctuation of probability will increase. It is more difficult to make money in 2022 than this year. We will appropriately stabilize possible large fluctuations through some band operations." He said.
(First Finance)
