Report summary:
In 2021, with the global economic recovery, the commodity price center rose, and the raw materials dominated by five core elements: n, P, K, s and Si showed eye-catching performance. N. P and s are the core element indicators reflecting the downstream prosperity of industry and agriculture. The prosperity in 2021 superimposes the double prosperity of economic recovery and agricultural recovery in the post epidemic period. Therefore, the prices of synthetic ammonia, yellow phosphorus and sulfuric acid, the upstream core raw materials reflecting the prosperity of the industry, continue to soar. Guided by the dual control of China's energy consumption in the third quarter, the upstream core raw materials rose and fell in stages. K is the core element of agriculture, and potassium fertilizer is the main downstream, benefiting from the agricultural boom. Potassium fertilizer is the core fertilizer for crop yield increase, reflecting the boom of simultaneous rise in volume and price once in 10 years. Si is the core element of industry, and the downstream is industrial raw materials or intermediates such as metal silicon and silicone. It belongs to a high energy consuming industry. It coincides with the demand expansion of new energy photovoltaic and other industries. Metal silicon soared due to the imbalance between supply and demand in 2021, and silicone was pushed up. We judge that under the global inflation environment, the relative prosperity of the five core elements of N, P, K, s and Si will continue in 2022, and the price center will still be significantly higher than that in traditional years.
Based on the global economic pressure, there is a certain pressure on the price rise of cyclical products, especially industrial products related to the economic cycle. The cycle shock intensified. This year, the global inventory was replenished, and the cycle products soared; After a year of upstream pressure test, as the product pricing power is in hand, the chemical industry leader will gradually repair its profits next year, which is also a better choice to make relative returns in the shock cycle. It is recommended to configure product pricing power leaders: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . It is recommended to pay attention to Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) .
It is suggested to arrange counter cyclical varieties - agrochemical, new energy upstream and biomass chemical industry. The economic cycle in 2022 is facing great challenges. As the mother of the upstream, the price of chemicals may also peak and fall after the Winter Olympic Games in the first quarter. It is suggested that glyphosate (preferred Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical & Chemicals Co.Ltd(600389) ) and potassium fertilizer (preferred Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ) should be preferred in the configuration, which is limited by the impact of the economic cycle and benefits from the agricultural boom; Upstream chemical materials under the new energy trend determined in the 14th five year plan, such as metal silicon, fluorite, soda ash, etc; New processes that conform to the trend of carbon neutralization and are not closely related to the economic cycle, such as biomass chemical industry.
It is recommended to focus on new materials / fine chemicals that can be grown up: the 14th Five-Year plan attaches great importance to the development of new materials. We look at the prospect of aerobic gels, degradable materials, powder micromaterials, special resins and fine chemical additives, and can degrade the preferred Henan Jindan Lactic Acid Technology Co.Ltd(300829) . The first choice is Novoray Corporation(688300) of the powder materials, the first choice of Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi'An(300487) for special resins, and the first choice of additives is platform Zhejiang Wansheng Co.Ltd(603010) . At the same time, the platform Sinochem International Corporation(600500) for transformation of new energy and new materials under Sinochem Group is recommended.
Risk warning: the project was put into operation lower than expected, the policy promotion was lower than expected, and the product price fell sharply
（ Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) ）
