Ignoring the strong rise in the overseas market, the stock indexes of Shenzhen and Shanghai continued to deduce the decline limit tide under the theme of “demon stocks” and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell sharply, as well as under the influence and stimulation of the reproduction of “general decline + sharp fall + sharp fall” by most industry segment indexes, closed high and opened low to adjust the negative line, or the second bottom of technology, or the weak hit a new low at the stage, which is approaching the annual accounting closing date The initiative of fund ranking countdown suppressed and released risk demands, the volatility was still above the important support, and maintained the operation strategy of “good stocks” falling and buying. From the perspective of the Shanghai stock index, the negative line is adjusted slightly in a large amount to form a combination of negative and positive K line, which breaks through the short-term moving average, strongly supports the weak downward trend of MACD index, makes it clear that there is inertia adjustment in small cycles and makes the demand for shadow line under the disc; The negative line of the gem index fell in large quantities, directly broke through 3300 points, and it was clear that heavyweights such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) did not stop falling, and the market outlook continued to test the triple bottom kinetic energy and potential energy; In combination with the operation of the Shenzhen composite index when it is blocked, it gives the combination of breaking through the head and breaking the foot and killing the Yin and Yang K-line, and the weak bottom of the Kechuang 50 index has reached 1350 points, and the region has not given the stop signal. It is expected that the stock index may have inertia to make the shadow line appeal in the future. However, based on the game needs of the countdown to the end of the annual line, maintaining the second bottom of the index is the opportunity for “good stocks” to get on the train.
At the close of the market, tourism, wine making, gambling, seed industry, diamond cultivation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, pork, anti-cancer, e-commerce concept, generic drugs, commercial chains and other sectors led the rise, with large-scale net capital inflow, with an average volatility of more than 1.5%, which constituted a strong positive leading and driving force for the index. However, sodium battery, solid-state battery, polysilicon, salt lake lithium extraction, energy storage, tire pressure monitoring, fluorine concept, lithium battery, rare earth permanent magnet, electrical equipment, nonferrous metals, mineral products, new energy vehicles, superconducting concept, hjt battery, charging pile, BIPV concept, UHV, smart grid, phosphorus concept, silicone, cobalt metal, mining related concept and scarce resources led the decline, The average volatility exceeded 3%, which led the market to continue to interpret the 19 market and close near the lowest point. Combined with the long short energy ratio, 63 stocks rose by more than 9%, 131 stocks rose by more than 5%, 262 stocks rose by more than 3%, 51 stocks fell by more than 9%, 477 stocks fell by more than 5%, and 1458 stocks fell by more than 3%, so as to clarify the continuous sharp decline of “lianbandemon stocks” and the valuation trend of “Ning index”, Or further form the transmission and venting of the short power of the secondary market, and trigger the index inertia to make the shadow line below the weekly line.
In terms of news, the national top-level design stressed that we should do a good job in the implementation of the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement after its entry into force, determine cross cycle adjustment measures, help enterprises to bail out, especially support small, medium and micro enterprises, strive to maintain orders and stabilize expectations, and promote the steady development of foreign trade; Pay close attention to the prevention and control of water pollution and the restoration of water ecology, do a good job in the “ten-year ban on fishing” of the Yangtze River, strengthen the protection of river and lake shorelines, and explore the establishment of a mechanism for the realization of the value of ecological products; Accelerate the construction of the golden waterway of the Yangtze River, promote the “four standardization” of waterway, ships, ports and customs clearance management, and vigorously develop multimodal transport; One belt, one road to the other, is to promote high-level opening to the outside world, strengthen the leading role of the Yangtze River Delta, improve the opening level of the upper and middle reaches, and deepen the integration of the “one belt and one road” construction. Strengthen market supply and price stability to meet people’s holiday consumption demand; Make overall arrangements for ensuring the supply of coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation, effectively increase the supply of coal, especially electric coal, effectively improve the power supply guarantee capacity, steadily increase the production and supply of refined oil, and ensure the heating gas in the northern region; We will fully implement the system of Party and government responsibility for food security and the mayor responsibility system of “vegetable basket”, strengthen market operation monitoring, and earnestly ensure the supply and price stability of important livelihood commodities such as grain, oil, meat, eggs, milk, fruits and vegetables, so as to ensure that the supply of daily necessities is constantly on file and not out of stock; Strictly implement the “four strictest” requirements for food safety to ensure “safety on the tip of the tongue”; We will strengthen the quality and price supervision of key holiday consumer goods, investigate and deal with violations of consumers’ rights and interests according to law, and maintain good market order.
The central bank redeployed the implementation of carbon emission reduction support tools and special refinancing policies for clean and efficient utilization of coal, took the implementation of two policy tools of carbon emission reduction support and clean and efficient utilization of coal as an important starting point, and accelerated project reserve and docking. The national development and Reform Commission stressed that we should accelerate the construction of the “1 + n” policy system, solidly promote the “ten actions to reach the peak of carbon”, strengthen basic capacity-building, and neither engage in “carbon charging” nor sports “carbon reduction”; Improve the dual control system of energy consumption, strictly control the intensity of energy consumption, enhance the flexibility of total energy consumption management, and exclude the new renewable energy and raw material energy from the total energy consumption control; Further strengthen the review of energy conservation, resolutely curb the blind development of “two high” projects, and provide reasonable energy use guarantee for economic and social development; We will accelerate the revision of the energy conservation law, the circular economy promotion law and the cleaner production promotion law, do a good job in the Legislative Research on the comprehensive utilization of resources law, and carry out special legislative research on carbon neutralization. SASAC accelerated the introduction of the work plan to support the high-quality development of medical institutions run by state-owned enterprises, and paid close attention to the “three accelerations”. First, accelerate the completion of the final task of hospital reform, guide central enterprises to carry out “look back” special inspection and evaluation, and ensure that the reform can stand the test; Second, accelerate the integration of resources, give full play to the advantages of key enterprises in the whole industrial chain, innovate business models, strengthen management and constantly improve the level of medical services; Third, accelerate the introduction of a work plan to support the high-quality development of medical institutions run by state-owned enterprises, further promote the sustainable development of medical and health groups of state-owned enterprises, constantly become stronger, better and bigger, and contribute to the construction of healthy China. Combined with the Ministry of industry and information technology from January to November, China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) business revenue was 8537.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%; The total profit of the software industry was 1015.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%; As of November 2021, China has built and opened more than 1.39 million 5g base stations, and more than 2300 virtual private networks and hybrid private networks. It is expected that the communication equipment, it equipment, 5g and data centers that have exceeded the low level will attack in the first quarter and deduce the positive upward trend in the medium term.
The author believes that the 14th five year plan for Railway Science and technology innovation promotes the mature application of 30000 ton heavy haul trains and fast freight equipment with a speed of 160 km / h and above, and promotes the research, application and industrialization of 25 ~ 40 ton axle load freight equipment, 120 km / h multimodal transport and high-speed freight equipment technology; The 14th five year plan for the development of modern science and Technology Museum System (2021-2025) proposes to promote the construction of one science and Technology Museum in each prefecture level city by 2025, promote conditional prefecture level cities to build science and technology museums according to local conditions, support social forces to participate in the construction of county-level Science and technology museums, and encourage central and western regions, old revolutionary base areas, ethnic minority areas, border areas The construction and development of science and technology museums in underdeveloped areas; The “14th five year plan” for the development of aerospace industry in Hubei Province focuses on the improvement and subdivision breakthrough of the “aerospace” industrial chain, and puts forward eight key industrial directions such as aviation product R & D, launch vehicle and launch service; The grid connected scale of offshore wind power in Jiangsu has exceeded 10 million KW, which can replace about 36.9 million tons of standard coal, reduce about 29.91 million tons of carbon dioxide and 135000 tons of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides; Luoyang innovation leading action plan proposes to cultivate 5 ~ 8 listed enterprises, build 5 10 billion innovation leading enterprises and 1600 high-tech enterprises during the 14th Five Year Plan period; Ningxia’s new energy power generation reached 42.7 billion kwh in the first 11 months, with a year-on-year increase of 40%. It is clear that the more the risk of “general decline + sharp decline + sharp fall” is released, the easier it is to realize differentiation and turnaround at the closing node of the annual line. In view of this, it is expected that the semiconductor, components, software services, industrial mother machine, rare earth, UHV, energy storage, smart grid, charging pile, lithium battery, photovoltaic, quantum technology, new materials, lithography, data center, electrical equipment, aviation, meta universe concept, Internet of things, artificial intelligence, hydrogen energy and other sectors that benefit from the core will remain active, 80% probability will continue to maintain stability and rise, and deduce the main rising market with bullish head. (author: Zhang Cuixia, chief investment adviser of Jufeng investment)
Attachment: daily analysis diagram of different indexes
(daily analysis diagram of Shanghai stock index 2021-12-24)
(daily analysis diagram of gem index 2021-12-24)
(Xinhua Finance)
