Core view
The overall international crude oil price fluctuated around USD 70-72 / barrel this week. The average Brent price this week was USD 73.8/barrel, down USD 0.5/barrel compared with last week, and the average WTI price was USD 71.1/barrel, flat compared with last week. It is comprehensively estimated that the supply and demand situation of the oil market in the fourth quarter is that the supply is less than the demand, and the current crude oil inventory is low. We believe that with the urgent authorization of Pfizer oral covid-19 drugs and the rational view of the market on the mutant virus Omicron, the crude oil price still has the basis for rebound.
Recently, under the background of rising raw material prices and continuous optimization of supply and demand pattern, product prices of sweeteners such as sucralose and acesulfame in China have increased significantly. Driven by the health concept of “substituting sugar for sucrose”, the demand for sweeteners is expected to continue to increase. Recently, China’s tire enterprises have intensively announced price increases of 2% – 10%. Under the background of the continuous rise in the prices of raw materials of rubber, steel and carbon black, the tire industry may continue to increase prices in the future. At the same time, factors restricting tire export such as sea freight may weaken in the future, superimposed with the continuous improvement of the concentration of China’s tire industry and the “going global” strategy of China’s leading enterprises, Therefore, we can expect the prosperity of the tire industry to reverse upward. Overseas demand for biodiesel is strong due to the implementation of carbon emission and other relevant policies. At the same time, China’s biodiesel with waste oil as raw material can enjoy the incentive policy of double points, and the market space is huge. We are optimistic about the continuous expansion of production capacity and product profit of China’s biodiesel enterprises in the future. In addition, in the current market environment, we suggest to focus on high growth companies with strong certainty, such as Hailir Pesticides And Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(603639) (pesticide technical drugs and preparations), Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) (bio based chemicals and daily chemical products), Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) (tires) and other stocks.
Key data tracking
Price rise and fall: the top five increases in the price of chemical products this week are natural gas spot (39.63%), tetrachloroethylene (30.25%), liquid caustic soda (10.26%), melamine (10.00%) and dichloromethane (6.56%); The top five falling prices of chemical products this week were photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane (- 19.05%), light soda ash (- 7.69%), calcium hydrogen phosphate (- 7.10%), PTFE suspended medium particles (- 6.67%) and vinyl acetate (- 6.08%)
Rise and fall of price difference: the top five increases in price difference of chemical products this week are styrene (120.01%), butadiene (73.43%), ethylene oxide (37.39%), adipic acid (29.11%) and propylene (PDH method) (21.74%); The top five drop in the price difference of chemical products this week were butyl acrylate (- 185.51%), BDO (maleic anhydride method) (- 93.33%), PMMA (- 27.48%), R134a (- 21.92%) and light soda (- 19.17%).
Risk statement
International crude oil prices fluctuate sharply; Poor overseas epidemic control led to a lower than expected recovery; The maintenance of some devices leads to periodic contraction of supply.
（ Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) ）
