In 2022, the global new energy industry will enter a period of full economic resonance. In terms of new energy power generation, China’s new installed capacity is expected to exceed 50%, and overseas will maintain a high growth rate; The sales volume of electric vehicles continues to maintain a rapid growth of more than 50%. On the premise of relative shortage of upstream resources, the leading enterprises of key materials, components and equipment maintain the trend of constant strength of the strong.
In terms of lithium battery industry chain, in 2022, China’s double points, double carbon policy overweight and diversified model supply contributed to the continuous prosperity of production and sales of new energy vehicles; European carbon emission policies will continue to be tightened, the electrification process of traditional vehicle enterprises will accelerate, and the new energy vehicle market will continue to grow steadily; We expect the global sales volume of new energy vehicles to reach 9.56 million in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 49%. The global demand for lithium batteries was 732gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 45%; The installed proportion of power battery of lithium iron phosphate battery is expected to remain high. With the easing of the tight supply of lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium salt and other raw materials, we expect the prices of electrolyte and cathode materials to fall, the prices of cathode limited by graphitization capacity and diaphragm limited by equipment are expected to remain stable, and the downward price of lithium battery raw materials will promote the repair of the profitability of downstream battery plants. Recommended Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) .
In terms of photovoltaic, the supply and demand of upstream polysilicon materials will remain in tight balance in 2022, and the price will still be about 200 yuan, but it will be significantly lower than that in the second half of 2021. With the release of new polysilicon production capacity in the second half of the year, it is expected that the component price will gradually callback to about 1.70 yuan / W. however, stimulated by the expectation of high installed capacity in the industry, it is unlikely that the price will continue to decline; The household and industrial and commercial markets continued to develop. It is estimated that China’s PV installed capacity will be in the range of 60-75gw in 2022. Overseas, the United States, India and other countries will continue to contribute to the high growth rate of installed capacity. It is expected that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will be in the range of 180-225gw in 2022.
TOPCON will take the lead in large-scale production next year. Heterojunction has a clear cost reduction route and imagination space in the future. Some integrated enterprises may obtain card position advantages and premium in a certain period of time in the future by solving the route bottleneck problem. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in all links of the photovoltaic industry: Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Sineng Electric Co.Ltd(300827) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) .
In terms of wind power, we are optimistic about the prosperity of onshore wind power industry in 2022. The installed capacity of onshore wind power is expected to reach more than 50gw in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 40%. Focus on land wind turbine and tower enterprises with low price sensitivity to materials; Offshore wind power is optimistic about the core parts sector. The leading enterprises with high industry barriers and good competition pattern and overseas development potential embrace the opportunity of resonant growth of global offshore wind power. Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Jiangsu New Energy Development Co.Ltd(603693) are recommended.
Risk statement
Industry shipments did not meet expectations, trade barriers, rising raw material prices, etc
（ Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) ）
