Before Christmas, “ningwang” had a big fall.
On December 24, the main indexes of the two cities fell. The Shanghai index was weak throughout the day, closing down 0.69%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.03% and the gem index fell 2.2%. In terms of sectors, new energy fell across the board, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750. SZ) once fell by more than 9%, closing down 7.28%, and the market value evaporated by more than 100 billion yuan in a single day. Byd Company Limited(002594) (002594. SZ) fell 3.57%, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (300014. SZ) fell 5.83%, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460. SZ) fell 4.90%, driving battery ETF (159755. SZ) down 4.58% and carbon neutralization faucet ETF (512580. SH) down 3.38%.
In this regard, Huaxia Fund analysis pointed out that from the news level, there are some bad news incentives for the adjustment of the lithium battery sector. First, the sodium ion battery industry is advancing rapidly. Zhongkehai sodium has reached cooperation with China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Three Gorges capital and the people’s Government of Fuyang City, Anhui Province to jointly build the world’s first large-scale production line of sodium ion batteries, Market concerns have an impact on the original route; Second, it is reported that new geological discoveries in China jointly form a huge lithium ore belt with a length of about 4000 km, and the supply of lithium resources may increase; Third, the market is worried about the affordability of downstream vehicle manufacturers under the continuous price rise trend of lithium carbonate.
Huaxia Fund also said that looking back on the market, new energy is the core main line of the market this year. The fundamental trend is better than expected. At the same time, the valuation has also increased significantly, and the cumulative share price has increased relatively. In the current position of the plate, the overall fluctuation trend will continue, and the overvalued value will have digestion pressure and demand in stages. In addition, we should be alert to the possible reversal of supply and demand, and the stock price volatility of such varieties may be higher.
Liu Cunxin, assistant fund manager of private placement network, also told reporters that on the one hand, the technology and production capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) competitors continue to rise, on the other hand, downstream vehicle manufacturers begin to cooperate with more power battery manufacturers to ensure battery supply. The market is worried about whether the company can continue to maintain its strong position in the industrial chain. At the same time, as the new energy industry has been at a high level before, this is a year-end correction.
“The valuation of lithium battery sector including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is generally high, and high valuation varieties are more vulnerable to negative factors such as market sentiment fluctuation, style change or performance growth not up to expectations. Near the end of the year, there are many market disturbance factors, and short-term sentiment fluctuation is also the main reason for the recent Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) adjustment.” Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, added to reporters.
Yuan Huaming further pointed out that under the background of stable growth policy, it needs longer time to observe whether the recent adjustment of growth varieties represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) means that the market style has the possibility of changing from growth style. The potential of the new energy automobile industry is huge, and the tension between supply and demand in the lithium battery industry is difficult to ease in the short term. The lithium battery industry will generally continue to grow and prosper for a period of time. In addition, the policy dividend of the new energy industry will also continue, and it is more likely that the lithium battery sector will regain its upward trend after adjustment.
Turning to the future investment value judgment, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, believes that in the long run, the development space of the new energy industry is still considerable.
“In the national plan, the proportion of non fossil energy needs to reach 20% in 2025, 25% in 2030 and 80% in 2060. At present, the consumption of non fossil energy accounts for less than 9%, that is, the development space of photovoltaic power generation, wind power and hydrogen energy in the future is more than ten times.”
He stressed, “At present, new energy vehicles are also in the primary stage of development. Under the situation of overcapacity and slow growth in all industries, new energy is one of the few industries with an annual growth of more than 30%. It can be considered that new energy will still be the main line of investment in 2022. The short-term correction does not change the medium and long-term logic, and the long-term optimistic trend of new energy has not changed 。”
Chen Mengjie, chief strategist of YueKai Securities Research Institute, also told reporters that in 2022, the automotive industry will continue to be resonated by demand, supply and policy, and is optimistic about the long-term development of the industry. New energy vehicles are expected to maintain high penetration and high growth rate. According to the calculation of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be 5 million, with a penetration rate of more than 18% and a growth rate of more than 50%. The strong demand in the downstream will bring deterministic growth in the performance of midstream battery enterprises, adding that some Longtou battery enterprises will have the pressure of transmitting cost to the downstream next year, The profit side is expected to usher in repair and enjoy the profit elasticity of high growth in the industry.
Huaxia Fund believes that from batteries and lithium battery equipment to upstream resources, the competition pattern has been relatively stable, and there are obvious barriers for leading enterprises in terms of market share, technical route reserve and financing, which is difficult to be subverted in the medium term; At the same time, next year is a big year of demand release. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased, and photovoltaic, energy storage and power grid have increased rapidly. However, the shortage of supply is difficult to alleviate in the short term. It is good for the leading enterprises with strong price transmission ability and the subdivided high-quality second tier enterprises that disperse the share of some leading enterprises with technological progress.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) Fu Jingtao, chief analyst of A-share strategy, predicts that the A-share market in 2022 will be “neither success nor failure”; “Cheng” is making rapid investment in new energy, and new energy is still a scarce high prosperity direction; “Failure” is low in the price performance of the plate, and further rise needs to be continuously verified by the fundamentals. Therefore, under the impact of the denominator end, the new energy sector is also difficult to excel. The market rhythm of the new energy sector in 2022 may be “high at both ends and low in the middle”.
“We are still optimistic about the development of the midstream power battery industry and the links with strong profit retention capacity. At present, the P / E ratio of Shenwan lithium battery index is close to 120 times, which is at the quantile level of 82% in recent five years. The overvalued value has further amplified the overall volatility. It is expected to return to a reasonable range after the valuation switch next year.” Chen Mengjie said.
(Economic Observer network)
