Report summary:
Historically, micro capital inflow and stock market trend usually change in the same direction, which has strong guiding significance for the market. In the past few years, micro capital inflows usually changed in the same direction as the stock market. For example, during the decline of the stock market in 2018, micro capital showed a continuous net outflow. In addition, in the early stage of the bull market in 2020, micro capital inflows changed from negative to positive, leading the subsequent strength of the stock market. Compared with macro liquidity, micro capital can more directly reflect the changes of liquidity in the stock market. The inflection point of capital inflow is relatively close to that of the stock market. The two show high consistency, so they have strong guiding significance.
In 2021, micro funds generally showed a net inflow trend, with public and private fund issuance as the main inflow, and IPO and fixed growth as the main outflow. In 2021, except for the slight outflow of micro funds in September, the net inflow remained in other months. In terms of various sub items of capital in 2021, fund issuance is still the main source of capital inflow, and public offering and private placement together contribute 76% of capital inflow. In addition, under the background of this year’s structural market, there are more emotional capital inflows such as financing and retail investors this year; In terms of capital outflow, IPO and fixed growth are the main capital outflow items, contributing 32% and 20% of capital outflow respectively. In terms of net capital inflow, the cumulative net inflow in 2021 was about 2.7 trillion, which was significantly improved compared with 2020.
IPO fund-raising, capital changes of land stock connect, maturity of trust funds and insurance capital inflow are important factors affecting capital changes in 2022. (1) As the listing process of the Beijing stock exchange is relatively loose compared with the science and innovation board, the listing rhythm of subsequent enterprises may be accelerated, which will further aggravate the financial pressure of listed enterprises on a shares. (2) At present, the allocation of foreign capital to the A-share market is still in the early stage. After the A-share is fully included in the three indexes, there is still room for the trend inflow of foreign capital to exceed 3 trillion. (3) The expectation of rising house prices is loose, and a large number of trust funds have become a potential source of funds for the stock market. (4) The proportion of insurance capital allocated to stocks and securities investment funds is in the trend upward channel, and there is still a large follow-up upward space.
It is estimated that the net inflow of micro capital in 2022 will be about 1.8 trillion, slightly lower than that in 2021.
On the inflow side, the fund will maintain a stable inflow under the background of institutionalization, and the emotional capital inflow may slow down: (1) public offering: the core assets perform well under the background of declining profits, the fund yield is expected to rise, and the annual scale is expected to be about 1.8 trillion; (2) Private placement: the marginal rate of return has dropped, and the scale of private placement has declined, and the annual scale is expected to be about 2.1 trillion; (3) Foreign capital: affected by taper and the expectation of interest rate increase, the inflow of foreign capital is expected to slow down, with an overall inflow of about 250 billion; (4) Financing balance: under the background of continuous decline in profits, it is difficult to significantly improve market sentiment, and it is expected that the annual inflow will be about 100 billion; (5) Retail funds: under the background of relatively flat index, the inflow of retail funds slowed down, about 200 billion in the whole year. On the outflow side, the market may fluctuate under the background of downward earnings, and the scale of IPO and fixed growth is expected to decline: (1) IPO: the opening of the Beijing stock exchange and the potential large ticket listing may have a phased impact on IPO fund-raising, and the total amount of funds absorbed is expected to be about 900-1100 billion; (2) Fixed growth: the fixed growth is expected to decline under the performance of market shock, and the annual scale is about 600 billion; (3) Convertible bonds: the annual scale is about 300 billion, and the rhythm is relatively high at the end of the year and the beginning of the year; (4) Shareholder reduction: the weakening of the market has led to a decline in the scale of reduction, which is expected to be about 450-500 billion in the whole year.
Risk tip: the epidemic broke out again, and the economic recovery and policy introduction were less than expected.
（ Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) ）
